| CNC |
Report |
Q2 Adjusted Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.00 vs. cons $0.90 |
LOW |
| CNC |
Report |
Q2 Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$48.2B vs. cons $47.6B |
LOW |
| CNC |
Report |
Consolidated HBR (medical loss ratio) |
MISS |
pred ~90.4% vs. cons ~89.9% |
LOW |
| CNC |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS floor |
UNCHANGED |
guide >$3.40 reaffirmed vs. cons $3.46 (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| CNC |
Guide |
Marketplace net risk-adjustment / pretax margin (June Wakely true-up) |
BETTER |
guide ~3-4% net RA margin / slight receivable vs. ~4% original target (FY26) |
LOW |
| CNC |
Guide |
2027 Marketplace outlook (eAPTC expiration) |
LOWER |
guide Marketplace ~3.0M members vs. ~3.6M current (FY27) |
LOW |
| CNC |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| CNC |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Stock doubled off the 2025 trough and already faded ~7% from its $68.7 mid-July peak into the print, so the bar is high and de-risking is underway. Even a likely modest EPS/revenue beat is offset by a reaffirmed (not raised) >$3.40 floor vs. cons $3.46, elevated Medicaid cost-trend read-through from Elevance (89.7% BER, +80bps), and the 2027 eAPTC-expiration Marketplace cliff. Unless the June Wakely data delivers a clearly larger risk-adjustment receivable and a guidance raise, out-period estimates drift lower (implicit back-half loss cadence + 2027 membership erosion), so an initial negative reaction follows through rather than reverses. Two-sided: a confirmed receivable + raise flips this sharply positive, hence LOW confidence. |
LOW |