{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Adjusted Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.00 vs. cons $0.90",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Total Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$48.2B vs. cons $47.6B",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Consolidated HBR (medical loss ratio)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~90.4% vs. cons ~89.9%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS floor",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >$3.40 reaffirmed vs. cons $3.46 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marketplace net risk-adjustment / pretax margin (June Wakely true-up)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3-4% net RA margin / slight receivable vs. ~4% original target (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2027 Marketplace outlook (eAPTC expiration)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide Marketplace ~3.0M members vs. ~3.6M current (FY27)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock doubled off the 2025 trough and already faded ~7% from its $68.7 mid-July peak into the print, so the bar is high and de-risking is underway. Even a likely modest EPS/revenue beat is offset by a reaffirmed (not raised) >$3.40 floor vs. cons $3.46, elevated Medicaid cost-trend read-through from Elevance (89.7% BER, +80bps), and the 2027 eAPTC-expiration Marketplace cliff. Unless the June Wakely data delivers a clearly larger risk-adjustment receivable and a guidance raise, out-period estimates drift lower (implicit back-half loss cadence + 2027 membership erosion), so an initial negative reaction follows through rather than reverses. Two-sided: a confirmed receivable + raise flips this sharply positive, hence LOW confidence.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}