{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.97 vs. cons $0.89",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Medicaid HBR (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~93.2% vs. cons 93.6% (lower HBR = better)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marketplace/Commercial HBR (Q2)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~76.2% vs. cons 75.3% (higher HBR = worse), reflecting continued Silver-tier acuity pressure flagged by peers (Molina, Elevance)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS floor guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~>$3.55 vs. cons $3.44 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marketplace full-year pretax margin assumption",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0% vs. cons ~3.3-3.5% bull-case expectation for an upgrade (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Marketplace year-end membership guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~3.0M vs. cons ~3.05-3.1M (FY2026 exit)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -6.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "CNC enters the print near/above average analyst price targets after a ~90%+ rally off April lows, leaving little room for anything short of a clearly quantified, sector-corroborating Marketplace risk-adjustment win. Peer reads this cycle (Molina's ACA membership collapse and 'underestimated' pricing miss, Elevance's beat-but-punished modest raise) suggest the market has turned skeptical of vague Marketplace commentary even alongside a headline EPS beat and FY floor raise. If management confirms only the already-embedded ~3% Marketplace margin without a hard receivable number, sell-side analysts likely trim out-quarter/2027 Marketplace and MA-breakeven assumptions even as they nudge FY26 EPS up on Medicaid/Medicare strength, producing a fade in Day-1 optimism (if any) and a mild continued drift lower into the print's aftermath rather than a sharp reversal, since the core Medicaid/Medicare trend story remains intact.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}