| COIN |
Report |
Total revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$1.24B vs. cons ~$1.30B |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Report |
Net transaction revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$600M vs. cons ~$640M |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$320M vs. cons ~$360M |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Guide |
Subscription & services revenue guide (Q3 2026) |
BETTER |
guide ~$620-660M (mid ~$640M) vs. cons ~$610M (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| COIN |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted operating expense frame |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.3-4.6B (mid ~$4.45B) vs. cons ~$4.45B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Guide |
Q3 tech & dev + G&A expense guide |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~$810-860M vs. cons ~$840M (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| COIN |
Guide |
CLARITY Act / regulatory 2H trajectory commentary |
BETTER |
guide constructive/multi-year unlock ~positive vs. cons cautious ~neutral (2H 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
LOW |
| COIN |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (STABILIZE) |
An 'as-feared' soft Q2 (transaction-revenue and EBITDA misses on the third straight volume decline) drives a modest day-1 idiosyncratic drop and negative out-period revisions as sell-side numbers were already being cut into the print; but the low bar, heavy prior de-risking (already -30% YTD), buyback support, and — crucially — the binary CLARITY Act catalyst into the Aug 7 Senate recess cushion the downside, keeping the 5-day residual roughly flat-to-slightly-negative rather than a full follow-through lower. |
LOW |