{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.24B vs. cons ~$1.30B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net transaction revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$600M vs. cons ~$640M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$320M vs. cons ~$360M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Subscription & services revenue guide (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$620-660M (mid ~$640M) vs. cons ~$610M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted operating expense frame",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.3-4.6B (mid ~$4.45B) vs. cons ~$4.45B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 tech & dev + G&A expense guide",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$810-860M vs. cons ~$840M (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "CLARITY Act / regulatory 2H trajectory commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide constructive/multi-year unlock ~positive vs. cons cautious ~neutral (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "An 'as-feared' soft Q2 (transaction-revenue and EBITDA misses on the third straight volume decline) drives a modest day-1 idiosyncratic drop and negative out-period revisions as sell-side numbers were already being cut into the print; but the low bar, heavy prior de-risking (already -30% YTD), buyback support, and \u2014 crucially \u2014 the binary CLARITY Act catalyst into the Aug 7 Senate recess cushion the downside, keeping the 5-day residual roughly flat-to-slightly-negative rather than a full follow-through lower.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}