| COIN |
Report |
Total Net Revenue (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$1.24B vs. cons $1.30B |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Report |
Total Trading Volume (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$153B vs. cons $165B |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Report |
Adjusted/GAAP EPS (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$0.03 vs. cons $0.15 |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Guide |
Subscription & Services Revenue Guide |
LOWER |
guide ~$575M vs. cons $610M (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Guide |
Tech/Dev + G&A Opex Guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$800M vs. cons $850M (Q3 2026, lower=better for margins) |
LOW |
| COIN |
Guide |
Full-Year 2026 Adjusted Expense Guidance (reaffirmed range) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$4.45B midpoint vs. cons $4.50B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| COIN |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A soft Q2 print (weak spot volumes, negative Earnings ESP already flagged, third straight quarterly volume decline) is likely to trigger further out-quarter estimate cuts as analysts extrapolate the April-June trading air pocket and soft Deribit/derivatives contribution into H2 guidance, especially since management itself has signaled H2 guidance is the more important signal than the Q2 beat/miss. Unless CLARITY Act passage delivers a surprise structural catalyst before the Senate recess (Aug 7), the path of least resistance is continued downward revisions compounding the initial negative reaction, producing follow-through rather than a snap-back or stabilization. Confidence is tempered because the regulatory catalyst is a genuine wildcard that could override the trading-fundamentals-driven fade/follow-through dynamic in either direction. |
LOW |