COIN Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
COIN Report Total revenue MISS pred ~$1.27B vs. cons $1.33B MEDIUM
COIN Report Transaction revenue MISS pred ~$610M vs. cons $620M MEDIUM
COIN Report Subscription and services revenue MISS pred ~$590M vs. cons $641M MEDIUM
COIN Guide Subscription and services revenue LOWER guide ~$600M vs. cons $630M (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
COIN Guide Adjusted expenses UNCHANGED guide ~$4.43B vs. cons $4.45B (FY 2026) MEDIUM
COIN Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -7.5% MEDIUM
COIN Return 5-day cumulative residual -10.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Q2 transaction and subscription shortfalls plus a below-consensus Q3 subscription run-rate should drive FY2026 revenue and EBITDA estimate cuts; maintained expense guidance limits the offset, so revisions likely extend the initial decline despite regulatory optionality. MEDIUM