{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.80bn vs. cons ~$2.70bn",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$11.0bn vs. cons ~$10.72bn",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.98 vs. cons ~$1.96",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guide (raise vs reaffirm)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.4bn midpoint (range lifted toward $8.3-8.6bn) vs. cons ~$8.35bn (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Diluted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.60-6.05 (mid ~$5.83) vs. cons ~$5.93 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Net income guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.9-4.1bn (mid ~$4.0bn) vs. cons ~$4.0bn (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Pro-forma net leverage post-Arcosa / IG rating",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~2.4x net debt/EBITDA peak vs. ~2.0x current (FY2026-27, BBB+ target)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 3.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Oversold, de-risked setup (stock -21% YTD, -11% past month, lagging VMC/MLM) plus a Q2 EBITDA/revenue beat and a modest FY26 EBITDA raise should spark a relief pop on day 1. But out-period math caps follow-through: rising Arcosa-related interest expense, higher D&A from growth capex/M&A, energy-cost inflation and only a token EPS-guide lift limit upward FY26/27 EPS revisions even after a top-line beat. Net effect is a hold-not-extend path \u2014 cheap valuation and infrastructure tailwinds support the gain, while leverage/dilution overhang prevents a larger squeeze.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}