I'll research CRH before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings, guidance, news, and stock performance.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and look into the Arcosa merger news.Let me get the Arcosa merger details, recent news, and stock price performance.Let me read the Arcosa deal details.Let me get the year-ago Q2 2025 numbers for comparison framing.I have what I need. Here's the preview.
CRH heads into its most important seasonal quarter carrying strong Q1 momentum and a reaffirmed full-year guide — but the stock has badly lagged its aggregates peers, an $8.5bn all-cash Arcosa deal has reshaped the balance-sheet/capital-allocation narrative, and a mid-year energy spike raises the stakes on the pricing-vs-cost debate. The key question tomorrow: does management raise 2026 guidance (as it did at Q2 last year), and how does it frame Arcosa financing and integration?
a) Guidance: raise, reaffirm, or trim? - At Q1, CRH reaffirmed FY26 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA of $8.1–8.5bn, net income of $3.9–4.1bn, diluted EPS of $5.60–6.05, and capex of $2.8–3.0bn (mid-point EBITDA ~$8.3bn). - History matters: at Q2 2025, management raised the full-year EBITDA range to $7.5–7.7bn on strong first-half demand. With Q1 2026 EBITDA up 18% and management flagging strong backlogs and "record" 2026 transportation investment, the bar is effectively set for a raise. A simple reaffirm could read as disappointing given the setup; any trim (energy) would be a clear negative. - Q2 is the swing quarter — it did ~$2.5bn of the ~$7.6bn full-year EBITDA in 2025 — so this print largely determines whether the FY guide moves.
b) Pricing vs. the energy spike. On the Q1 call, management sized energy at ~5% of revenue, said it hedges ~9 months out, and — critically — said it had already begun targeted mid-year price increases to protect margins. Watch for: (i) confirmation those increases stuck, (ii) whether mid-single-digit cost inflation guidance (labor, raw materials, subcontractors) holds, and (iii) continued margin expansion, the company's core investment thesis.
c) Volume & price cadence. Q1 set a strong tone: Americas aggregates volumes +14% (mix-adjusted price +5%), cement +10%. Full-year framework is low-single-digit aggregates volume / mid-single-digit price, and low-single-digit cement volume and price. Q2 is the real test of whether early-season strength converts as the paving season peaks. Watch the mix-adjusted aggregates price (management's preferred metric) and any cement-price softness (down 1% in Q1 Americas after three strong years).
d) End-market split. Infrastructure (IIJA, state DOT budgets +6%, ~50% of IIJA funds still undeployed), reindustrialization (data centers, chip plants), and water remain the growth engines; residential new-build stays subdued while R&R is resilient. Outdoor Living (residential-exposed) was the soft spot in Q1 (−3%). Any read on a residential inflection or continued weakness matters for Americas Building Solutions.
| Metric (Q2 2025) | Result | YoY then |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenues | $10.2bn | +6% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.46bn | +9% |
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 24.1% | +70bps |
| Net income | $1.3bn | +2% |
| Diluted EPS | $1.94 | +3% |
Segment color from Q2'25: Americas Materials +2% rev / +4% EBITDA; Americas Building +2% / +5%; International +13% / +23%. International was the standout again in Q1 2026 (+32% EBITDA, +130bps margin) — watch whether that momentum (Europe recovery, Australia/Adbri synergies, FX tailwind) continues.
CRH has meaningfully underperformed US aggregates peers in 2026, which frames expectations going in:
| YTD 2026 (thru 7/29) | Since Arcosa deal (6/22 → 7/29) | |
|---|---|---|
| CRH | ≈ −21% ($126 → $100) | ≈ −10% |
| Vulcan (VMC) | ≈ −2% | ≈ −6% |
| Martin Marietta (MLM) | ≈ −10% | ≈ −6% |
The stock fell from ~$126 in January to ~$100, with a leg down after the March macro sell-off and a lukewarm reaction to the Arcosa deal. The takeaway: the market appears skeptical/de-risked — a guidance raise and confident Arcosa framing could be a positive catalyst; a mere reaffirm plus leverage concerns leaves room for further disappointment.
Bottom line: With Q1 strong, backlogs up, and 2026 shaping up as a "record" infrastructure year, the operational bar favors an in-line-to-better quarter and a likely guidance raise. The debate is less about the base business and more about (a) whether energy erodes the margin story and (b) how the market digests a large, debt-funded Arcosa deal against a stock that's already down ~20% YTD and lagging peers.
Note: I did not have access to a live sell-side consensus for Q2 2026, so the "bogey" above is anchored to year-ago actuals and current guidance rather than published estimates. Figures are drawn from CRH's Q1 2026 and Q2 2025 releases/calls, deal news, and market prices through 7/29/2026.