Timing correction: CoStar is scheduled to report after the market closes today, Tuesday, July 28, 2026, with the earnings call at 5:00 p.m. EDT—not tomorrow, July 29. (investors.costargroup.com)
CSGP enters the report with a heavily reset valuation and a correspondingly low bar for sentiment—but not necessarily for operating performance. The shares closed July 28 at approximately $29.17, roughly 56% below their January 2 close. Moreover, the stock declined after each of the prior three earnings announcements despite adjusted-EPS beats, suggesting investors care much more about bookings, Homes.com economics, and forward margin credibility than a modest headline beat. (marketbeat.com)
| Metric | Company guidance | Published consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $922M–$932M | Approximately $929M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $160M–$180M | — |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.27–$0.30 | Approximately $0.28–$0.29 |
| Commercial revenue | $479M–$484M | — |
| Residential revenue | $443M–$448M | — |
| Residential adjusted EBITDA | $0M–$10M | — |
Consensus figures vary slightly by data provider and by EPS definition, but they sit near the midpoint of management’s ranges. (investors.costargroup.com)
Q1 annualized net new bookings were $67 million, up 20% year over year, but investors focused on the sequential decline and the productivity of CoStar’s expanded sales organization. Management declined to guide bookings but described Q2 as typically its strongest bookings quarter, helped by the Apartmentalize conference and the maturation of sales hires made during 2025.
The most important number in this report may therefore be net new bookings, not EPS.
A constructive result would likely require:
A revenue or EPS beat accompanied by soft bookings could still be received negatively because bookings are the bridge to management’s longer-term growth framework.
Management guided the Residential segment to produce breakeven to $10 million of adjusted EBITDA, versus a $29 million loss in Q1 and a $76 million loss in Q2 2025. Achieving this would be an important milestone after years of elevated Homes.com investment.
Investors should separate two questions:
A result near the top of the range, paired with stronger Homes.com monetization, would materially improve confidence in the margin-expansion story. A miss would revive concerns that residential spending remains difficult to control.
At the end of Q1, Homes.com had approximately 35,000 agent subscribers, while its March annual revenue run rate reached roughly $106 million. Management also raised pricing for new customers beginning May 1 after presenting data that it believes demonstrates strong subscriber ROI. Homes.com traffic and engagement were strong, including a reported 119% increase in Q1 organic traffic. (investors.costargroup.com)
For Q2, the key Homes.com indicators are:
Traffic and AI-engagement statistics are helpful, but the stock increasingly needs proof that those metrics convert into subscription revenue and improving economics.
CoStar’s current full-year outlook is:
At the midpoint of Q2 guidance, the company would have generated approximately $1.824 billion of first-half revenue and $302 million of first-half adjusted EBITDA. To reach the full-year midpoints, the second half would need approximately:
That ramp is plausible if residential losses continue falling, sales productivity improves and cost controls hold. But it makes the Q3 outlook and reaffirmation of full-year EBITDA guidance more important than a small Q2 variance.
A full-year revenue reaffirmation combined with another EBITDA increase would be the strongest outcome. Conversely, an EBITDA reaffirmation supported mainly by lower spending while bookings weaken would be lower quality.
The core commercial portfolio provides the earnings base funding CoStar’s residential expansion. In Q1:
For Q2, investors should watch:
A shortfall in core commercial growth would be particularly concerning because the commercial business is supposed to be the stable, high-margin counterweight to Homes.com execution risk.
On July 13, CoStar named Robin Rossmann CFO effective July 31, succeeding Christian Lown. The company emphasized Rossmann’s record of eliminating approximately $51 million, or 25%, of the European cost structure while maintaining double-digit growth. Lown’s departure was described as unrelated to any disagreement with the company. (investors.costargroup.com)
Because the transition occurs immediately after this report, investors will want clarity on:
The appointment’s explicit emphasis on “margin expansion and profitable growth” should make cost discipline a major theme on the call.
| Outcome | What it might look like | Probable interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | Revenue and EBITDA above the upper ends; strong sequential bookings; Residential clearly profitable; FY EBITDA raised | The earnings inflection is real and Homes.com risk is becoming manageable |
| Constructive/base | Results near the high end; bookings improve; FY guidance reaffirmed; solid Q3 outlook | Execution is stabilizing, but investors may wait for more proof |
| Mixed | EPS beat driven by lower costs, but bookings or Homes.com additions disappoint | Low-quality beat; future revenue concerns remain |
| Bearish | Weak bookings, Residential remains loss-making, or FY guidance reduced | Undermines both the Homes.com thesis and the expected second-half margin ramp |
This report is less about whether adjusted EPS is $0.28 or $0.30 and more about whether CoStar can demonstrate three things simultaneously:
The share-price decline means expectations are far less demanding than they were at the beginning of 2026. Nevertheless, prior post-earnings reactions show that a routine headline beat will probably not be sufficient. The clearest positive catalyst would be strong bookings, measurable Homes.com monetization and a higher full-year EBITDA outlook. The greatest risk is an earnings beat driven by expense timing while bookings and residential customer economics remain weak.