CoStar Group (CSGP) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is mixed — consensus is a manageable bar on revenue but the bigger swing factor is whether Residential EBITDA inflects to positive as guided, and whether net new bookings accelerate into Q2's seasonally strongest quarter; a CFO transition announced mid-quarter adds an incremental overhang.

Heading into Q2 2026, the consensus revenue bar of ~$929M sits just above the midpoint of management's $922M–$932M guidance range, leaving limited room for a meaningful beat on the top line. The more important story is adjusted EBITDA: after doubling year-over-year in Q1 and raising full-year guidance to $780M–$820M, management guided Q2 EBITDA to $160M–$175M (midpoint ~$170M), and consensus at ~$173M sits modestly above that midpoint — a low bar that should be cleared if AI-driven personnel efficiencies persist. The pivotal catalyst is the Residential segment reaching profitability in Q2 for the first time, a milestone management explicitly committed to on the Q1 call; any shortfall here would be the single biggest negative surprise. Estimate revisions have been essentially flat since the Q1 print, suggesting the Street has not materially re-rated the story in either direction, and the stock has drifted ~19% lower since last earnings — pricing in neither a beat nor a miss but reflecting macro uncertainty and the CFO departure. The key wildcard is net new bookings: Q2 is seasonally the strongest quarter for bookings, and management flagged Q1's $67M as a lighter seasonal quarter; a bookings number materially above or below the ~$88M consensus would be the most market-moving data point in the print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sits at or just above the midpoint of management's guidance on all key metrics — a low bar on EBITDA but a tighter bar on revenue. Net new bookings and Residential EBITDA profitability are the bigger swing factors than the headline revenue number.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot

Sources: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data for Revenue, Adj. EBITDA (Operating), EPS — Diluted — Operating, Net New Bookings, Commercial Adj. EBITDA, Residential Adj. EBITDA. Q2 2026 guidance from Q1 2026 earnings call (April 28, 2026). Note: Residential Revenue total segment ($443M–$448M guided) includes Apartments.com, Homes.com, OnTheMarket, and Domain; VA tracks the Homes.com sub-line separately at ~$109M consensus.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: Total Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA (Operating)

Pattern: CSGP has beaten Adj. EBITDA consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, often by a wide margin, driven by AI-related personnel cost efficiencies that the Street has consistently underestimated. Revenue beats have been narrow (within ~1%), reflecting tight guidance ranges. The one revenue miss (Q3 2024) was modest at -0.5%. Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Management's tone has shifted from defensive to confident since the Q1 print — the activist overhang is fully resolved, FY 2026 EBITDA guidance was raised $30M at the midpoint, and the Residential segment is on track for its first profitable quarter. No post-earnings guidance revisions have been issued; the Q1 call remains the baseline.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been essentially flat since the Q1 print — the Street has not materially re-rated the story in either direction. EBITDA estimates sit modestly above guidance midpoints, consistent with CSGP's pattern of conservative guidance and consistent beats.

Source: Visible Alpha consensus and actuals data. Estimate baseline as of May 5, 2026 (~5 trading days post Q1 earnings on April 28, 2026). Net new bookings estimate declined modestly post-print, possibly reflecting macro uncertainty, but remains well above Q1's $67M given Q2's seasonal strength. All other estimates are essentially unchanged, suggesting the Street is waiting for the print rather than pre-positioning.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: CSGP has declined ~19% since the Q1 earnings print despite beating on EBITDA, driven by a combination of below-consensus Q2 revenue guidance, macro uncertainty in residential real estate, and the mid-July CFO departure announcement. The stock is now trading near multi-year lows, suggesting the market has priced in meaningful execution risk.

CSGP indexed price since Q1 2026 earnings (April 28, 2026 = 100). Sector ETF: XLRE (Real Estate Select Sector SPDR). Note: RDFN and ZILLOW peer data unavailable in dataset; chart shows CSGP standalone. Source: Stock Price Data.

CSGP opened at $35.96 on April 28, 2026 (Q1 earnings day) and has declined to $29.17 as of July 28, 2026, a loss of approximately -19% over the period. The stock sold off immediately after the Q1 print despite the EBITDA beat, as Q2 revenue guidance of $922M–$932M came in below Street estimates. The stock continued to drift lower through May and June, reaching a trough near $27–$28 in late June/early July. A brief recovery attempt in mid-July was cut short by the CFO departure announcement on July 13 (Christian Lown stepping down, Robin Rossmann appointed effective July 31), which weighed on sentiment. The stock has partially recovered to ~$29 heading into the print. The decline appears driven primarily by multiple compression and macro sentiment rather than estimate revisions, as consensus numbers have been essentially flat since the Q1 print. Source: Stock Price Data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the CFO transition — a leadership change at a critical juncture in CSGP's margin expansion story. The activist overhang is fully resolved, which is a net positive, but the CFO departure introduces near-term uncertainty around capital allocation messaging.

• July 13, 2026 — CFO Transition: Christian Lown resigned as CFO (effective July 31, 2026) to pursue an opportunity outside the industry. Robin Rossmann, currently Managing Director Europe, appointed as successor. Rossmann has a strong track record — eliminated ~$51M in European costs (~25% of cost structure) while delivering double-digit revenue growth. Implication: Leadership change at a critical juncture in the margin expansion story; new CFO's cost-cutting background is a positive signal for EBITDA targets, but transition creates near-term uncertainty on investor messaging. Rossmann will be on his first earnings call as CFO-designate.
• April 28, 2026 — Q1 2026 Earnings Beat + FY EBITDA Guidance Raised: Revenue of $897M (+23% YoY) in-line; Adj. EBITDA of $132M materially above the high end of guidance ($100M–$115M range), driven by AI-driven personnel cost efficiencies. FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA guidance raised to $780M–$820M (+$30M at midpoint). Implication: Sets a high bar for EBITDA execution; the Street now expects the efficiency gains to persist.
• April 28, 2026 — Activist Campaign Fully Resolved: Third Point exited its position and dropped its proxy fight. CEO Florance explicitly called the campaign a distraction that weighed on Homes.com sales and partnerships. Implication: Removes a key overhang; management can refocus on execution and revenue acceleration across all businesses.
• April 28, 2026 — Homes.com Subscription Price Increases Announced: New customer subscription fees raised effective May 1, 2026, citing demonstrated 11x member ROI (average subscriber earned $36,400 more in commissions vs. $3,400 annual subscription cost). Implication: Positive for Homes.com ARPU and revenue trajectory; supports the path to Residential profitability.
• April 28, 2026 — Homes AI Launch & Engagement Metrics: Homes AI users run 4x more searches, favorite 7x more properties, and submit 7x more leads vs. non-AI users. Time on site reached 18 minutes for AI users vs. 4:32 for non-AI users in April. Implication: Strengthens competitive moat and supports subscriber retention and ARPU expansion.
• June 25, 2026 — Shareholders Approve New ESPP (2.5M Shares): Routine governance approval. Implication: Modest dilution; no material impact on the investment thesis.
• May 2026 — Macro Headwinds in Residential Real Estate: Zillow (Q1 2026 earnings, May 6) noted the housing market stayed "essentially flat" in Q1 amid worse-than-expected weather and interest rate volatility; NAR reported industry grew only 2% and purchase mortgage origination volume declined 1% YoY. Zillow explicitly stated it is "not planning for the housing market to get better" in 2026. Implication: Soft residential transaction volumes are a headwind for Homes.com subscriber growth and net new bookings, though CSGP's subscription model provides some insulation.
• Q2 2026 — CoStar France Launch & Australia Expansion on Track: CoStar France launched in Q2 as guided; CoStar and LoopNet expected to launch in Australia in Q3 and Q4 2026. Implication: International expansion adds incremental revenue but also near-term cost pressure.
• Q2 2026 — Commercial CRE Market Strengthening (JLL Read-Through): JLL reported record Q1 2026 results with Investment Sales revenue +27%, Debt Advisory +30%, and Leasing Advisory showing strong momentum in office and industrial. JLL trending toward the upper end of its FY 2026 guidance range. Implication: Positive read-through for CoStar Suite and LoopNet demand; improving CRE transaction volumes support CoStar's commercial segment.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer Q1 2026 earnings calls (reported April–May 2026) provide forward-looking commentary on Q2 2026 conditions. The read-through is mixed: commercial CRE is strengthening (positive for CoStar Suite/LoopNet), residential transaction volumes remain soft with macro uncertainty (headwind for Homes.com bookings), and the multifamily rental market is healthy (positive for Apartments.com). Only commentary about Q2 2026 or the forward outlook is included below; prior-quarter results commentary is excluded.

Zillow Group (ZG) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 6, 2026

Relevance to CSGP: Residential marketplace competitor; read-through on housing market conditions, agent activity, and multifamily rental demand heading into Q2.

• Housing market expected to remain flat through 2026: CEO Wacksman stated the housing market "stayed essentially flat" in Q1 amid weather and interest rate volatility, and CFO Hofmann explicitly said "we are not planning for [the housing market] to get better" in 2026. NAR reported industry grew only 2% in Q1; purchase mortgage origination volume declined 1% YoY. CSGP read-through: Soft residential transaction volumes are a headwind for Homes.com net new bookings and subscriber growth in Q2; however, CSGP's subscription model provides insulation vs. transaction-dependent peers.
• Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $750M–$765M (+~16% YoY): Zillow guided Q2 residential revenue growth in the mid-single digits YoY, with rentals revenue expected to grow ~30% YoY. Mortgage revenue expected to maintain Q1 growth levels. CSGP read-through: Zillow's mid-single-digit residential revenue growth guidance for Q2 confirms a soft for-sale market; Apartments.com should benefit from the strong rental demand Zillow is seeing (30% rental revenue growth).
• Multifamily rental market remains robust: Zillow reached an all-time high of 76,000 multifamily properties (up from 55,000 a year ago); Q1 rental revenue grew 42% YoY driven by 57% multifamily revenue growth. Zillow sees a "clear path to $1B+ in annual rentals revenue." CSGP read-through: Strong multifamily demand is a direct positive for Apartments.com, which competes directly with Zillow Rentals. Apartments.com's 15 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth should continue.
• AI engagement driving deeper user behavior: Zillow's AI mode users show "deeper, more substantive conversations" and "more actionable engagement." Engineers shipping 40% more code per engineer. Q2 advertising spend planned at ~$80M (up from $64M a year ago) due to planned product launches. CSGP read-through: Competitive intensity in AI-powered real estate search is increasing; CSGP's Homes AI (4x searches, 7x leads vs. non-AI users) is a direct competitive response. Zillow's increased ad spend in Q2 may pressure Homes.com traffic acquisition costs.
• Q2 EBITDA headwinds from legal expenses and advertising: Zillow guided Q2 EBITDA of $150M–$165M, including ~$20M of incremental legal expenses (FTC antitrust trial) and ~$16M of incremental advertising vs. prior year. Excluding legal, EBITDA would be $170M–$185M. CSGP read-through: Zillow's legal overhang (FTC/state AG lawsuit alleging Zillow and Redfin conspired to reduce competition for rental listings) is a competitive distraction that could benefit Apartments.com.

Compass, Inc. (COMP) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 5, 2026

Relevance to CSGP: Large residential brokerage; read-through on agent activity, transaction volumes, and residential market conditions heading into Q2.

• Q2 2026 revenue guidance of $4.0B–$4.2B; Adj. EBITDA $310M–$350M: Compass guided strong Q2 results, with pro forma brokerage GTV up 7.3% YoY in Q1 vs. a market that was up only 1.5%. The company has outperformed the market for 20 consecutive quarters on an organic basis. CSGP read-through: Compass's outperformance vs. a flat market suggests agent productivity is improving even in a soft transaction environment — positive for Homes.com's value proposition to agents.
• Housing market transactions essentially flat YoY in Q1; market at or near trough: Compass noted the overall market was flat YoY in Q1 (4.1M existing home sales, which management described as "believed to be the trough of the cycle"). At trough, Compass models ~$1B in Adj. EBITDA; at mid-cycle (5.5M sales), ~$2B. CSGP read-through: If the residential market is at or near trough, any recovery in transaction volumes would be a meaningful tailwind for Homes.com subscriber growth and net new bookings in H2 2026 and beyond.
• Agent recruiting momentum accelerating into Q2: Compass recruited more principal agents in Q1 than any prior Q1 in its history. Recruiting momentum picked up further in Q2, partly driven by interest in the Redfin/Rocket partnership. Pro forma agent retention was 94% (97% excluding zero-GCI agents). CSGP read-through: Strong agent activity and recruiting momentum is a positive signal for Homes.com subscriber growth, as agents are actively investing in their businesses.
• 3-Phased Marketing / pre-market listings gaining traction: "Coming soon" listings rose from low-20s% to mid-30s% of Compass listings; management expects 80% of listings to eventually go through the coming soon phase. ~1,000 coming soon listings launched in Chicago metro since Redfin partnership announcement, generating ~3,000 buyer inquiries. CSGP read-through: The shift toward pre-market listings and agent-centric marketing models validates CSGP's Homes.com agent-centric strategy. Increased listing inventory visibility benefits all portals.
• AI reducing OpEx; agent utilization at record highs: Compass freed up ~$2M of resources in Q1 through AI workflow automations; identified ~$23M in potential annualized efficiencies. Despite AI fears, agent utilization is at its highest recorded level — 91% of home sellers and 88% of homebuyers used a real estate professional in 2025 (vs. 85%/77% in 2005). CSGP read-through: Confirms that AI is augmenting rather than replacing agents, supporting CSGP's agent-centric Homes.com model. AI-driven cost efficiencies are an industry-wide trend that benefits CSGP's EBITDA margin expansion story.

JLL (JLL) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 30, 2026

Relevance to CSGP: Global commercial real estate services firm; read-through on CRE transaction volumes, leasing activity, and capital markets conditions heading into Q2 — directly relevant to CoStar Suite and LoopNet demand.

• Record Q1 2026 results; trending toward upper end of FY guidance: JLL reported record revenue and earnings in Q1 2026, with Adj. EBITDA +24% and Adj. EPS +56% YoY. FY 2026 Adj. EPS guidance of $21.80–$23.50 (+20% at midpoint); company is "currently trending towards the high end." CSGP read-through: Strong CRE services demand is a direct positive for CoStar Suite (used by brokers, tenants, lenders) and LoopNet (commercial property marketplace). CoStar's Q1 broker sales were already up 29% and tenant sales up 27% YoY.
• Capital markets momentum continuing into Q2: Investment Sales revenue grew 27% in Q1; Debt Advisory +30%; Equity Advisory +75%. JLL noted "capital markets started 2026 with significant global momentum, which continued into the second quarter." Investor bidding activity is resilient, underpinned by robust liquidity and debt markets and an uptick in large-scale transactions. CSGP read-through: Accelerating CRE investment sales and debt advisory activity directly benefits CoStar Debt Solutions (crossed $100M in revenue in Q1, net new bookings +26% YoY) and CoStar Suite's lender/investor user base.
• Office leasing demand healthy; AI boom driving gateway market demand: Office leasing revenue growth outpaced the 1% decline in market volumes. Organizations are actively moving forward with return-to-office plans; some clients noted they "overshot on the downsizing through the pandemic and now need to correct for that." The AI boom is positively impacting leasing in gateway markets (San Francisco, New York). CSGP read-through: Improving office leasing activity is a positive for CoStar Suite demand from brokers and tenants, and for LoopNet commercial listing activity.
• Macro environment "fluid" but constructive; limited late-year visibility: JLL noted the macro environment limits late-year visibility for economically sensitive businesses. GDP growth outlook remains constructive; OECD business confidence has improved. European market has seen some deals canceled or delayed due to geopolitical uncertainty. CSGP read-through: Macro uncertainty is a risk to CoStar's commercial segment in H2 2026, but near-term (Q2) conditions appear healthy based on JLL's commentary.
• Leasing pipeline healthy; Capital Markets pipeline strong: JLL's global investment sales, debt, and equity advisory pipeline remains strong. Leasing pipeline is healthy, particularly in the U.S. Asia Pacific, which was relatively weak in 2025, is now experiencing "very strong momentum with many large transactions." CSGP read-through: A healthy pipeline heading into Q2 supports continued CoStar Suite net new bookings growth and LoopNet paid listing growth.

eXp World Holdings / AGNT (EXPI) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 11, 2026

Relevance to CSGP: Cloud-based residential brokerage; read-through on agent activity, residential market conditions, and macro uncertainty heading into Q2. Note: eXp changed its ticker to AGNT in May 2026.

• Q2 2026 guidance: Revenue $1.36B–$1.45B; Adj. EBITDA $16M–$21M: eXp reiterated full-year guidance citing "growing uncertainty and tightening macroeconomic environment" and "less visibility into the second half." Management stated it is "prudent to reiterate the full year guidance and reassess our outlook at the midpoint of the year." CSGP read-through: Macro uncertainty and limited H2 visibility from a large residential brokerage is a cautionary signal for Homes.com net new bookings growth in Q2 and beyond.
• Legacy brokerages contracting; consolidation accelerating: eXp noted legacy companies are "contracting at very large percentages, 5% to 7% per year" and that consolidation and roll-ups are occurring across the industry. eXp acquired NextHome (a franchise system) to become a "multi-modal platform." CSGP read-through: Industry consolidation and the shift away from legacy brokerages could disrupt existing CoStar Suite and LoopNet customer relationships, but also creates opportunities as agents migrate to new platforms that use CSGP's tools.
• Agent productivity improving; NPS monitoring as early warning system: "Productivity drove more agents to reach their cap in Q1." eXp monitors agent NPS as a "real-time fire smoke detector system" — a slight sequential step-down in NPS was flagged as an area of focus. CSGP read-through: Agent productivity improvement is a positive signal for Homes.com's value proposition; agents earning more commissions are more likely to invest in marketing tools.
• AI investment in agent tools accelerating: eXp is investing in "AI Copilots," a "listing intelligence platform," and an "App Store marketplace" to help agents build scalable businesses. CSGP read-through: Increasing AI investment by brokerages validates the trend toward AI-powered agent tools; CSGP's Homes AI is well-positioned to compete for agent mindshare.

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) — Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 7, 2026

Relevance to CSGP: iBuyer / residential real estate marketplace; read-through on housing market conditions, interest rates, and residential transaction volumes heading into Q2.

• Q2 2026 revenue expected +25% QoQ; Adj. EBITDA breakeven: Opendoor guided Q2 revenue growth of ~25% QoQ as Q1 home acquisitions flow through to resales. Contribution margin expected in the middle of the 5%–7% goal. Q2 is described as an "inflection point" where Opendoor expects to be Adj. EBITDA profitable on a 12-month go-forward basis. CSGP read-through: Opendoor's accelerating acquisition pace (5,000+ contracts in Q1, 2x Q4 and 3x Q3) suggests improving seller confidence and transaction activity, which is a positive signal for residential real estate activity heading into Q2.
• Mortgage rates "still far too high"; housing market challenging but Opendoor not macro-dependent: Opendoor noted "mortgage rates are still far too high and listings are at all-time highs." However, management emphasized its model "works across macro cycles" and does not need "rates to fall" or "permission from the Fed." CSGP read-through: High mortgage rates and elevated listings inventory confirm the challenging residential macro environment that CSGP's Homes.com is operating in for Q2 2026.
• Inventory health dramatically improved; resale velocity accelerating: Opendoor reduced aged inventory (homes on market >120 days) from 51% to 10% in two quarters — the lowest since Q2 2022. Every cohort from October through January is selling faster than any corresponding cohort since COVID. CSGP read-through: Improving resale velocity and inventory health suggest the residential market may be stabilizing at the margin, which could support Homes.com listing activity and subscriber engagement in Q2.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: The most notable signal is CEO Andy Florance's open-market purchase of 71,430 shares (~$2.5M) on May 1, 2026 — a discretionary buy at ~$35/share shortly after the Q1 print, signaling conviction in the stock at current levels. The CFO's tax-withholding share disposition is routine and not a negative signal.

Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 filings). Open-market transactions only: CEO Florance's May 1 purchase is the only discretionary open-market buy in the period. No open-market sales by insiders. Director awards (code A) and tax withholding dispositions (code F) are routine and non-discretionary. No 10b5-1 plan initiations were identified in the period.

Disclosures & Data Sources

Consensus and actuals data sourced from Visible Alpha. Stock price data sourced from Yahoo Finance via Stock Price Data dataset. Insider transaction data sourced from SEC Form 4 filings via Insider Transaction Data dataset. Company guidance and management commentary sourced from CSGP Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (April 28, 2026) and 8-K filings. Peer commentary sourced from earnings call transcripts: Zillow Group (ZG, May 6, 2026), Compass Inc. (COMP, May 5, 2026), JLL (April 30, 2026), eXp World Holdings/AGNT (EXPI, May 11, 2026), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN, May 7, 2026). CFO appointment details sourced from CSGP 8-K filed July 13, 2026. This document is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.