CoStar Group (CSGP) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup is cautiously constructive — consensus sits just below the midpoint of management's Q2 revenue guidance, EBITDA estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print, and the single biggest swing factor is whether residential profitability inflects as promised and whether net new bookings re-accelerate after the activist-distraction overhang is fully cleared.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for CSGP is achievable but not easy: consensus revenue of ~$929M sits at the low end of management's $922M–$932M guidance range, implying the Street is not pricing in an upside surprise on the top line, while EBITDA consensus of ~$173M is comfortably within the $160M–$180M guidance band — a setup that leaves room for another beat similar to Q1's 26%-above-midpoint outperformance. Management's tone on the Q1 call was the most confident in several quarters: the activist overhang from Third Point was declared fully resolved, Homes.com subscriber ROI data (11x return on subscription cost) was used to justify a May 1 price increase for new customers, and the residential segment was explicitly guided to reach profitability in Q2 — a milestone that, if achieved, would be a meaningful sentiment catalyst. Estimate revisions since the Q1 print have been essentially flat (revenue consensus moved less than 0.1% over the past 12 weeks), suggesting the Street is in a "show me" posture rather than pre-positioning for a beat. The stock has declined ~19% since the Q1 print, driven almost entirely by multiple compression (NTM EV/EBITDA contracted from ~17.5x to ~13x over three months) rather than estimate cuts, leaving the stock at its cheapest valuation in years and creating an asymmetric setup if Q2 execution is clean. The key wildcard is the CFO transition: Christian Lown resigned effective July 31 and Robin Rossmann (Managing Director, Europe) steps in — any uncertainty around financial guidance credibility or capital allocation continuity could weigh on the stock even on a beat.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Revenue consensus is a low bar (at the bottom of guidance), but net new bookings and residential EBITDA profitability are the real swing factors — a miss on bookings or a failure to reach residential breakeven would likely overshadow any revenue beat.

Table 1 — Q2 2026 Current Quarter Snapshot (All Key KPIs)

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data; CoStar Group Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Transcript (April 28, 2026). Residential Adj. EBITDA consensus not separately tracked in Visible Alpha; guidance range from Q1 2026 earnings call.

Table 2 — Beat / Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top 2 KPIs: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA (Operating)

Pattern: CSGP has beaten Adjusted EBITDA consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, often by wide margins (30–113%), driven by AI-enabled personnel cost efficiencies; revenue beats have been narrower and more consistent (in-line to +2.5%), with only one revenue miss in Q3 2024. The EBITDA beat pattern is the dominant signal heading into Q2. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has not been formally revised since the Q1 2026 earnings call on April 28, but the CFO departure (effective July 31) is a meaningful post-earnings development that introduces uncertainty around guidance credibility and capital allocation continuity heading into the print.

Source: CoStar Group Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Transcript (April 28, 2026); CoStar Group 8-K (July 13, 2026) — CFO appointment.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print — Q2 revenue consensus moved less than 0.1% over 12 weeks, and FY 2026 EBITDA consensus is essentially at the guidance midpoint. The lack of upward revision despite a strong Q1 EBITDA beat suggests the Street is waiting for Q2 execution proof before re-rating.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (revision history May 8 – July 28, 2026); CoStar Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call (April 28, 2026). The near-zero estimate drift across all KPIs since the Q1 print reflects a Street that accepted management's guidance at face value but has not pre-positioned for upside — the EBITDA beat pattern (7 of last 8 quarters) is not yet priced into Q2 consensus.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: CSGP has declined ~19% since the Q1 print vs. XLK +10% and SPY +4%, driven almost entirely by multiple compression (NTM EV/EBITDA contracted from ~17.5x to ~13x over three months) rather than estimate cuts — the stock is now at its cheapest valuation in years, creating a potential mean-reversion opportunity if Q2 execution is clean.

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CSGP vs. XLK vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at April 28, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). CSGP -19%, XLK +10%, SPY +4% through July 28, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Note: Chart above is indexed to 100 at the Q1 2026 earnings date (April 28, 2026). XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF) is used as the sector benchmark given CSGP's classification as a technology-enabled real estate data and marketplace company. The stock's underperformance vs. XLK (+10%) and SPY (+4%) is driven by multiple compression, not estimate cuts — NTM EV/EBITDA contracted from ~17.5x to ~13x over the period, while NTM revenue estimates moved less than 0.1%. The CFO resignation announcement (July 7–13) coincided with a brief additional leg lower. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance Summary (April 28 – July 28, 2026):

Valuation Decomposition (NTM EV/EBITDA):

Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Valuation decomposition from Implied stock performance decomposition tool (NTM EV/EBITDA, snapshot July 27, 2026).

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important post-Q1 development is the CFO departure and replacement — an internal promotion that limits disruption risk but introduces near-term uncertainty around guidance credibility at a critical inflection point for residential profitability.

• July 13, 2026 — CFO Transition: Christian Lown resigned effective July 31 for an opportunity outside the industry; Robin Rossmann (Managing Director, Europe, 7 years at CoStar) appointed CFO effective July 31. Rossmann is an internal candidate with a track record of margin improvement in European operations. Implication: Transition risk is moderate — Rossmann is known to management and has operational credibility, but the timing (day of Q2 earnings) is awkward and may prompt questions about guidance continuity and the 2030 EBITDA roadmap.
• April 28, 2026 — Homes.com Price Increase Announced: Management announced subscription fee increases for new Homes.com customers effective May 1, citing an 11x ROI for subscribers (average $36,400 incremental commission vs. $3,400 annual subscription cost). Implication: Supports ARPU expansion and revenue acceleration in H2 2026; key metric to watch is whether price increases are driving churn or being absorbed.
• April 28, 2026 — Activist Overhang Fully Resolved: Third Point exited its position and dropped its proxy fight; management explicitly called the campaign a distraction that weighed on Homes.com sales and partnerships. Implication: Removes a key headwind; management expects accelerated revenue across all businesses now that the distraction is gone.
• April 28, 2026 — FY 2026 Adj. EBITDA Guidance Raised: Raised to $780M–$820M from prior guidance, a $30M increase at the midpoint, driven by AI-enabled personnel cost efficiencies. Implication: Demonstrates operating leverage is real and ahead of schedule; sets a higher bar for FY execution.
• April 28, 2026 — eXp Realty Partnership Expanded: New partnership allows eXp's 30,000 agents to display pre-market 'coming soon' listings on Homes.com. Implication: Strengthens Homes.com's listing inventory and agent value proposition; a key competitive differentiator vs. Zillow/Realtor.com.
• June 25, 2026 — Shareholders Approve New ESPP: Shareholders approved a new Employee Stock Purchase Plan authorizing 2.5 million shares. Implication: Routine governance item; signals management focus on employee retention during the CFO transition period.
• Q2 2026 (ongoing) — CoStar France Launch & Australia Expansion: CoStar France launched in Q2; CoStar and LoopNet expected to launch in Australia in Q3/Q4 2026. Implication: International expansion is a medium-term revenue driver; near-term cost headwind as build-out accelerates.
• Q2 2026 (ongoing) — Apartments AI Launch: Apartments AI (conversational search, same technology as Homes AI) planned for launch ahead of the June Apartmentalize trade show. Implication: Extends AI engagement advantage to the multifamily segment; could drive further traffic and lead quality improvements.

7. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: The only open-market transaction in the post-Q1 window is a significant open-market purchase by CEO Andrew Florance — 71,430 shares for approximately $2.5M on May 1, 2026, three days after the Q1 print. This is a strong bullish signal from the insider most informed about the company's trajectory.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filing — Andrew C. Florance (CSGP), filed May 4, 2026, transaction date May 1, 2026. No other open-market buys or sells (Form 4 codes P/S) were filed in the April 28 – July 28, 2026 window. The CEO's discretionary purchase of ~$2.5M at $34.72/share — a price ~19% above current levels — is a notable bullish signal, particularly given it occurred immediately after the Q1 print when the stock sold off on below-consensus Q2 revenue guidance.

8. Peer Commentary & Current-Quarter Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Qualifying peer read-throughs for CSGP's Q2 2026 are limited — most direct peers (Zillow, Redfin, Compass, RealPage) have not yet reported Q2 2026 results. The available read-throughs come from industry data providers and macro housing market reports published in the last 60 days that speak to Q2 2026 conditions. These are directional rather than direct, but collectively paint a picture of a housing market that remained sluggish in Q2 (elevated mortgage rates, flat existing home sales) while commercial real estate showed pockets of resilience.

Methodology Note

Per the user's instruction, this section includes only commentary published in the last 60 days (May 28 – July 28, 2026) that addresses Q2 2026 conditions or the period after a peer's prior earnings. Commentary from peers about their own prior-quarter results (e.g., a peer's Q1 2026 earnings call discussing Q1 results) is excluded. No major CSGP direct peer (Zillow, Redfin, CoStar's commercial data competitors) has reported Q2 2026 earnings as of July 28, 2026, so there are no direct peer earnings read-throughs available. The read-throughs below are categorized as: (A) Direct — from companies that compete directly with CSGP in a specific segment; (B) Directional — from industry data or adjacent companies that inform the demand environment for CSGP's end markets.

A. Residential Real Estate End Market (Directional Read-Throughs)

B. Commercial Real Estate End Market (Directional Read-Throughs)

C. Excluded Commentary — Why Certain Peers Are Not Included

The following peers were considered but excluded from the read-through section:

• Zillow (Z/ZG) Q1 2026 Earnings (May 2026): Excluded because this commentary addressed Q1 2026 results, not Q2 2026 conditions. Only Zillow's forward-looking market data (June/July 2026 market reports) is included above.
• Redfin Q1 2026 Earnings: Excluded for the same reason — Q1 result commentary is not a Q2 read-through. Only Redfin's July 2026 weekly housing data is included.
• JLL Q2 2026 Earnings: JLL announced its Q2 2026 earnings release details (June 25, 2026) but has not yet reported results as of July 28, 2026. No qualifying commentary available.
• Rocket Companies (RKT): Announced Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026 — not yet reported. Excluded.
• CBRE Group: No Q2 2026 earnings transcript available in the database as of July 28, 2026. CBRE market research reports (above) are included as directional read-throughs.

Summary Read-Through Assessment: The peer read-through picture for CSGP Q2 2026 is net cautious on residential, net positive on commercial. The residential housing market remained sluggish in Q2 (flat existing home sales, rate volatility, low new listings), which is a headwind to Homes.com subscriber urgency but not a direct revenue risk given CSGP's subscription model. Commercial CRE fundamentals — particularly industrial leasing and international markets — remained constructive, supporting CoStar Suite and LoopNet demand. The AI cost efficiency narrative is being validated across the proptech sector (Opendoor), reinforcing CSGP's EBITDA beat pattern.