CVNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CVNA Report Retail units sold BEAT pred ~206k vs. cons ~198k MEDIUM
CVNA Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$775M vs. cons ~$735M MEDIUM
CVNA Report Non-GAAP retail GPU IN-LINE pred ~$3,330 vs. cons ~$3,340 LOW
CVNA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA framing (raise/reaffirm 'significant growth') BETTER guide ~$3.0B+ vs. cons ~$2.9B (FY2026) MEDIUM
CVNA Guide Q3 2026 sequential records (units & EBITDA) BETTER guide units ~215k / EBITDA >$775M vs. cons ~210k / ~$760M (Q3 2026) LOW
CVNA Guide Retail GPU YoY direction LOWER guide ~$3,330 vs. cons/yr-ago ~$3,540 (Q2, down YoY on tariff/spread) MEDIUM
CVNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +6.0% MEDIUM
CVNA Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (STABILIZE) Records on units/EBITDA plus a likely FY26 raise support an initial pop, but the guided YoY retail-GPU decline and rich multiple cap upside; out-period math is neutral-to-slightly-positive (units revised up, GPU/margin revised down), so the initial move largely holds rather than compounding or fully fading. High-beta (~2.0) name means idiosyncratic move dominates the reaction. LOW