CVNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CVNA Report Retail Units Sold BEAT pred ~214,000 units vs. cons ~208,000 units MEDIUM
CVNA Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$755M vs. cons ~$725M MEDIUM
CVNA Report GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$0.46 vs. cons ~$0.42 MEDIUM
CVNA Guide Q3 2026 Retail Unit Growth BETTER guide ~225,000 units vs. cons ~215,000 units (Q3 2026) LOW
CVNA Guide Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin BETTER guide ~10.8% vs. cons ~10.3% (Q3 2026) LOW
CVNA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin Path (toward 13.5% target) UNCHANGED guide ~11.0% exit-rate trajectory vs. cons ~10.7% (FY2026) LOW
CVNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.0% MEDIUM
CVNA Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.0% (STABILIZE) Operational beat on units/EBITDA is largely pre-guided by management's explicit 'sequential record' language, so the surprise magnitude is modest relative to a stock already priced for continued hyper-growth; initial pop from confirming GPU/reconditioning fix and normalizing wholesale-retail spread gets partially offset by tougher H2 comps (Q3/Q4 2025 margins were strong) and lingering litigation/governance overhang (Gotham allegations, Arizona class action document production) that caps follow-through buying without triggering a full reversal, leaving the stock to consolidate near its post-print level over the following days. LOW