CVNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CVNA Report Retail units sold BEAT pred ~201,500 vs. cons 198,190 MEDIUM
CVNA Report Total GAAP GPU IN-LINE pred ~$6,860 vs. cons $6,797 MEDIUM
CVNA Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$795M vs. cons $763.6M MEDIUM
CVNA Guide FY2026 adjusted EBITDA BETTER guide ~$3.20B vs. cons $2.99B (FY2026) LOW
CVNA Guide Retail units sold BETTER guide ~212,000 vs. cons 210,500 (Q3 2026) LOW
CVNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +5.5% MEDIUM
CVNA Return 5-day cumulative residual +8.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$3.20B vs. consensus $2.99B would imply second-half EBITDA of ~$1.73B vs. consensus ~$1.56B, driving positive out-period revisions rather than a post-beat fade. LOW