CVNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CVNA Report Retail units sold IN-LINE pred ~205,000 vs. cons 203,500 MEDIUM
CVNA Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$735 million vs. cons $713 million MEDIUM
CVNA Report Non-GAAP retail GPU BEAT pred ~$3,235 vs. cons $3,180 MEDIUM
CVNA Guide FY2026 retail-unit-growth outlook BETTER guide ~825,000 retail units vs. cons 808,000 (FY2026) MEDIUM
CVNA Guide FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook BETTER guide ~$3.00 billion vs. cons $2.84 billion (FY2026) MEDIUM
CVNA Guide Q3 retail units / Adjusted EBITDA record commentary BETTER guide ~215,000 retail units and ~$775 million Adjusted EBITDA vs. cons 211,000 and $748 million (Q3 2026) LOW
CVNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +7.0% MEDIUM
CVNA Return 5-day cumulative residual +10.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) ~3% FY2026 EBITDA upside versus consensus and ~2% FY2026 retail-unit upside should drive positive out-period revisions; a ~$22 million Q2 EBITDA beat is supported by sequential retail-GPU recovery rather than only volume. MEDIUM