CVNA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
CVNA Report Retail units IN-LINE pred ~197,000 vs. cons 195,633 MEDIUM
CVNA Report Adjusted EBITDA BEAT pred ~$770M vs. cons $760.9M MEDIUM
CVNA Report Retail operating GPU MISS pred ~$3,400 vs. cons $3,467 MEDIUM
CVNA Guide Q3 2026 retail units UNCHANGED qualitative sequential-record guide; modeled ~205,000 vs. cons 204,233 LOW
CVNA Guide Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA UNCHANGED qualitative sequential-record guide; modeled ~$820M vs. cons $815.6M LOW
CVNA Guide FY26 growth commentary UNCHANGED reaffirm significant growth; no numeric company range vs. FY cons 797,169 units / $3.00B EBITDA LOW
CVNA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% LOW
CVNA Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) FOLLOW-THROUGH — forward GPU uncertainty dominates LOW