| CVX |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$5.65 vs. cons ~$5.30 |
MEDIUM |
| CVX |
Report |
Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$63B vs. cons ~$59B |
MEDIUM |
| CVX |
Report |
Total production (MBOED) |
BEAT |
pred ~3,950 vs. cons ~3,880 |
MEDIUM |
| CVX |
Guide |
Q3 buyback pace |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$2.75B/qtr vs. cons/hopes ~$3.25B (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| CVX |
Guide |
FY2026 capex budget |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$18.5B vs. cons ~$18.5B (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| CVX |
Guide |
FY2026 production growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~7-10% vs. cons ~8% (FY2026) |
HIGH |
| CVX |
Guide |
TCO free cash flow / affiliate distributions |
BETTER |
guide ~$7B+ vs. cons ~$6B (FY2026, set at $60-70 Brent, upside at spot) |
MEDIUM |
| CVX |
Guide |
Microsoft West Texas power project FID |
UNKNOWN |
guide FID ~H2 2026 vs. cons ~0 offtake modeled (2026) |
LOW |
| CVX |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+1.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| CVX |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+1.0% (STABILIZE) |
A war-driven blockbuster beat is largely priced in (stock near 52-wk-relative highs, +23% YTD) and capital-allocation discipline (buyback held at $2.5-3B, capex unchanged) caps the initial pop. But out-period math is a two-way wash rather than a clear cut: forward tailwinds (80% oil-linked LNG book flowing through with a lag, ~$1B timing-effect unwind, H2 working-capital release, affiliate/TCO distributions struck at $60-70 Brent with spot upside) push FY/Q3 estimates up, while peak-earnings skepticism and Hormuz-reopening/ceasefire risk pull them the other way. Net: the day-1 idiosyncratic gain roughly holds rather than compounding or fully fading. |
LOW |