{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.05 vs. cons $5.79",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$64.5B vs. cons $61.97B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Worldwide net oil-equivalent production (mboe/d)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~3,420 mboe/d vs. cons 3,400 mboe/d",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 production growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~9% vs. cons ~8.5% (7-10% range) (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 share buyback range",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.25B vs. cons $2.75B midpoint of $2.5-3B range (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 capex budget",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$18.5B vs. cons $18-19B midpoint (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -0.6,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Q2 beat is substantially a war-driven price spike (Brent ~$106 vs FY27 consensus already down ~10% YoY to $13.25 EPS), so even with a headline beat, analysts are likely to treat the quarter as low-quality/non-recurring given inventory/derivative timing noise and equity-crude one-time capture; as Iran de-escalation headlines persist and Brent reverts toward $89 by 4Q26, out-period estimates get trimmed, pulling the stock back down over the week despite the beat, consistent with the already-declining FY2027 EPS revision trend.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}