D Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-31

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
D Report Operating (non-GAAP) EPS – Q2 2026 BEAT pred ~$0.80 vs. cons $0.78 MEDIUM
D Report GAAP/Reported EPS – Q2 2026 MISS pred ~$0.68 vs. cons $0.74 MEDIUM
D Report Total Operating Revenue – Q2 2026 IN-LINE pred ~$4.08B vs. cons $4.06B MEDIUM
D Guide FY2026 Operating EPS guidance (midpoint) UNCHANGED guide ~$3.57 vs. cons $3.57 (FY2026; range $3.45-$3.69 reaffirmed) HIGH
D Guide CVOW total project budget/in-service schedule UNCHANGED guide ~$11.4B vs. cons $11.4B (FY2026-2027; majority of turbines in service by YE2026, balance by mid-2027) MEDIUM
D Guide NEE merger closing timeline / special shareholder meetings UNCHANGED guide ~2027H2 vs. cons 2027H2 (deal close target; special meetings early Sept 2026 reaffirmed) HIGH
D Guide FFO-to-debt credit metric UNCHANGED guide ~15%+ vs. cons 15% (FY2026 target; above Moody's/S&P downgrade threshold) MEDIUM
D Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.3% LOW
D Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.2% (STABILIZE) D's post-announcement beta to SPX is near zero/negative (-0.23) while correlation to NEE is 0.91 — the stock now trades as a fixed-ratio merger-arb instrument (~3% discount to implied deal value of ~$72) rather than on standalone fundamentals. A modest operating-EPS beat with FY26 guidance, CVOW budget/schedule and merger-timeline (Sept 2026 votes, H2 2027 close) all reaffirmed removes incremental deal-risk but doesn't re-rate the arb spread, since the exchange ratio is fixed; a possible GAAP-EPS miss (Zacks ESP -5.4%, estimates cut ~10% over 60 days, likely merger transaction/financing costs) could spook headline-driven flows on day 1, but with no new regulatory information the spread should stabilize near its pre-print level within a few sessions rather than trending further, as forward EPS revisions get netted against Dominion's already-embedded 'certainty equivalent' merger valuation. LOW