{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.09 vs. cons ~$2.08",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Organic sales growth (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~4.0% vs. cons ~4.2%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~17.2% vs. cons ~17.3%",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adj EPS guide (ex-CoolIT)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.43-$8.63 (mid $8.53) vs. cons ~$8.52 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3'26 adj EPS guide (incl. ~$0.20 CoolIT drag)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$2.05-$2.15 reported vs. cons ~$2.22 pre-dilution (Q3'26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2'26 organic sales growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~6-7% vs. cons ~6% (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Price/cost exit-rate (pricing catches raws at Q2 exit)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~fully offset by Q2 exit vs. cons ~fully offset (Q2/H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even on an in-line print and a held ex-CoolIT FY guide, the out-period math is negative: CoolIT closes in Q3 and adds ~$0.20 of H2 dilution, so reported H2/Q3 estimates get cut once the reported-vs-underlying bridge is disclosed. Combined with a rich ~28x multiple, ECL's recurring 'sell-the-news' pattern (Q1 fell ~4% on an in-line beat), and the price/cost recovery being only a promise rather than proof, the modest day-1 drop follows through lower as estimates drift down.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}