{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$15.20 vs. cons $14.59",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Combined ratio (group)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~90.5% vs. cons ~91.5% (lower=better)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net investment income",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$550M vs. cons ~$545M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Share buyback pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$300M+/qtr vs. cons ~$250M/qtr (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 capital release (AIG renewal-rights + Canada sale)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$500M+ vs. cons ~$300M (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "June/Florida cat rate change",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~-15% vs. broker ~-17% (6/1 2026 renewal)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Legacy combined ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide >110% vs. cons ~110% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even with a clean modest beat, the quality is low (seasonally light cat + volatile alt/NII), while the premium base is deliberately shrinking and consensus itself models earnings down YoY. Out-period math implies continued FY26 estimate drift lower, and the stock ran ~30% off lows and ~11% in July into the print at ~1.0x BV \u2014 a rich, 'priced-for-execution' bar. Absent a firm H2 capital-release number or a clear casualty all-clear, momentum fades as buy-the-news exhaustion and flat-to-lower revisions dominate; any Baltimore-bridge/summer reserve-study charge accelerates the fade.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}