{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 operating EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$16.85 vs. cons $14.52",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 group combined ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~89.8% vs. cons 91.3%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Global Wholesale & Specialty attritional combined ratio",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~92.4% vs. cons 92.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total share repurchases",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.30B vs. cons $1.20B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Treaty Reinsurance gross written premium growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-8% vs. cons -5% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Wholesale & Specialty attritional combined ratio",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~92.3% vs. cons 92.5% (2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.2,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "5-day residual ~+0.2% vs. day-1 residual +1.6%: a low-catastrophe EPS beat and stronger capital return support the initial move, but softer midyear reinsurance pricing and deliberate casualty-volume reductions imply limited out-period revenue upside and modest 2027 estimate cuts after the print.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}