{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Operating EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$15.50 vs. cons $14.74 (VA, Jul 29)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Combined Ratio (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~92.8% vs. cons 91.98% (VA, Jul 29)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Premium Written (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.25B vs. cons $3.367B (VA, Jul 29)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Operating EPS (implied FY)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$53-55 implied vs. cons $51.50 (VA, Jul 29)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Baltimore Bridge Reserve (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "~$25-35M incremental PYD vs. cons $0 (not in consensus)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Buyback Floor / Capital Return (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "reaffirm $300M/qtr floor; possible augmentation commentary",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 1.5,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "STABILIZE \u2014 beat is real but modest; property cat headwind known; capital return story provides floor; slight fade as sell-side models H2 math",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}