Good, that gives useful context on SB254. Let me try one more search for the most recent Eaton fire / legislative news closer to July 2026.I now have sufficient information to write a comprehensive earnings preview. Let me compile everything.# Edison International (EIX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Report Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026 (after market close) | Call: 4:30 PM ET
EIX shares have had a strong run into this quarter, closing at $78.82 on July 29, up roughly 29% year-to-date from $60.93 at the start of January and near the top of its 52-week range. The stock has outperformed the broader utility sector, helped by resolution of major regulatory overhangs (2025 GRC, cost of capital, legacy wildfire recoveries) and reaffirmed guidance through the year. That said, the stock carries a "Hold" consensus rating, with a wide split among analysts (roughly a third bullish, a third neutral, and a meaningful bearish contingent) — reflecting unresolved wildfire-liability and legislative overhangs that persist alongside otherwise steady utility fundamentals.
Consensus estimates for Q2 2026 cluster around $1.10–$1.20 core EPS (estimates vary by source), against $1.37 core EPS in Q1 2026 and prior-year comparisons complicated by large 2025 TKM settlement benefits. Revenue estimates are roughly $4.5–4.8 billion. EIX has beaten EPS estimates in each of its last several quarters, including a Q1 2026 beat ($1.42 actual core EPS vs. ~$1.32 expected).
EIX has consistently affirmed its 2026 core EPS guidance of $5.90–$6.20 and its long-term 5–7% core EPS growth rate through 2030. In the Q1 call, management reiterated this confidence, citing "Major SCE regulatory decisions like the 2025 GRC, cost of capital and legacy wildfire cost recoveries are successfully resolved, providing clear visibility to 2028 earnings." Watch for any change in tone here — a straightforward reaffirmation would be viewed positively; any hedging would raise concern given the stock's rich move YTD.
This remains the single largest swing factor for the stock. As of the Q1 call, SCE had extended over 1,500 offers totaling over $500 million to community members impacted by the Eaton fire through its Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program (WRCP), while noting "there's over 3,100 claims that have been filed. But to put that in scale, we've also seen claims brought forth by something like 30,000 plaintiffs so far... around 18,000 properties that qualify for the program." As of the Q1 10-Q, SCE was aware of ~2,000 pending unsettled lawsuits representing ~30,000 individual plaintiffs related to the Eaton Fire, with a bellwether jury trial set for January 2027. Management has repeatedly declined to provide a loss estimate, citing the interplay of insurance coverage levels among claimants and an open statute of limitations (property damage claims run until January 2028). Investors should watch for: - Updated claim/offer counts and dollar totals in the WRCP - Any commentary on the LA County District Attorney's ongoing investigation into potential criminal liability tied to the fire's ignition (idle SCE transmission equipment has been identified as a possible contributing factor) - Any progress/setbacks in SCE's cross-complaint against other parties, filed in January 2026
This is the key political/regulatory catalyst investors are watching. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) released its SB 254-mandated wildfire/insurance study earlier this year, and management has been vocal that 2026 legislative action is critical. On the Q1 call, Pizarro emphasized: "we think it's really important that the state return to an investor-owned utility cost of service model... where investors can know that there's a good opportunity to recover their capital investment." He also flagged real consequences of inaction: "if we don't see legislation this year... I think it's quite likely we would see, for example, credit rating impacts not only for utilities or for insurance companies, but you could see it in other sectors in the state." The legislative session ends August 31, 2026, with bills needing to be in print by August 28 — meaning the Q2 call (and subsequent weeks) sits right in the middle of the highest-stakes legislative window of the year. Any update on bill text, timing, or negotiating posture will likely move the stock more than the quarterly numbers themselves.
Management has been firm on financing discipline: a $38–41 billion capital plan (2026–2030), ~7% rate base CAGR (2025–2030), and a commitment to no new common equity through 2030, backed by a 15–17% FFO-to-debt target. Confirming these targets — plus updates on the AMI 2.0 filing (~$3.1 billion capital request through 2033) and the upcoming RAMP filing (informing the next GRC cycle) — will be important data points for the long-term growth story.
This will be Aaron Moss's first quarterly earnings call as CFO, following Maria Rigatti's transition (she officially retires September 1, 2026, after 39 quarters on the earnings call). Investors will be listening for continuity of messaging on financing strategy, cost discipline, and regulatory execution — areas Moss has been closely involved in as former SCE CFO.
With a hot gubernatorial primary underway and rate-related legislation flying, affordability remains a political flashpoint. Management has pushed back on claims (e.g., from candidate Tom Steyer) about utility break-up saving customers 25% on rates, and has emphasized SCE delivering rate increases "that are once again at or below inflation through 2030." Expect continued messaging on this front given the sensitivity around customer bills.
Per the Q1 10-Q, most subrogation and fire-suppression claims from the 2017/2018 Thomas/Koenigstein/Woolsey fires have been settled, with remaining matters largely limited to individual plaintiff trials scheduled through 2027 (including a Cal OES damages/liability trial for Woolsey set for October 2026). This is a much smaller residual risk relative to Eaton.
EIX issued $500 million of 5.00% senior notes due 2028 in May 2026, consistent with its debt-funded capital plan. Q1 2026 cash from operations was $1.43 billion, and the company also repurchased $538 million of preferred stock during the quarter, contributing to lower parent-level financing costs.
The operational and regulatory story at SCE is about as clean as it has been in years — GRC, cost of capital, and legacy wildfire recoveries resolved, rate base growing at a healthy clip, and no equity issuance needed. The Q2 print itself is likely to be a modest, unsurprising beat-and-reaffirm quarter (consensus core EPS near $1.10–$1.20). The real risk/reward hinges on two unresolved, non-quarterly items: (1) the ultimate magnitude of Eaton Fire liability, still unquantifiable, with a criminal investigation adding tail risk, and (2) whether California passes durable wildfire-liability/cost-of-capital reform before the legislative session closes August 31 — a binary event that could reshape the long-term investment case either way. Investors should treat the earnings call less as a numbers event and more as a checkpoint on legislative and litigation commentary, given how far the stock has already re-rated in 2026.