Report date: Thursday, July 30, 2026, after market close
Conference call: 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT (newsroom.edison.com)
EIX enters the quarter with a constructive operating and regulatory backdrop, but a materially higher investor bar. The shares closed July 29 at $78.81, approximately 31% above year-end 2025, as investors gained confidence in the approved rate plan, the financing outlook and the mechanisms available to fund Eaton Fire claims.
Consequently, the most important outcome is unlikely to be a few cents of quarterly EPS. Investors should focus on:
The fundamental setup remains favorable, but the risk/reward is less forgiving after the share-price recovery. A routine EPS beat accompanied by unchanged wildfire commentary may not be enough to drive a major positive reaction.
| Metric | Current benchmark |
|---|---|
| Q2 core EPS consensus | Approximately $1.18 |
| Q2 revenue consensus | Approximately $4.8 billion |
| Q2 2025 core EPS | $0.97 |
| Q2 2025 revenue | $4.54 billion |
| Q1 2026 core EPS | $1.42 |
| 2026 core EPS guidance | $5.90–$6.20 |
| 2027 core EPS guidance | $6.25–$6.65 |
| 2028 core EPS guidance | $6.74–$7.14 |
Public estimate aggregators are unusually inconsistent, with Q2 EPS figures ranging from roughly $1.02 to $1.18. I would therefore treat $1.1–$1.2 as the practical quarterly hurdle, rather than attaching too much significance to one consensus number. The broader full-year consensus is around $6.13, slightly above management’s $6.05 guidance midpoint. (tickerleague.com)
EIX reported Q1 core EPS of $1.42 and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $5.90–$6.20. Its longer-range outlook calls for 5%–7% annual core EPS growth through 2030, supported by approximately 7% rate-base growth. (download.edison.com)
If Q2 core EPS is around $1.18, EIX would need approximately $3.30–$3.60 of second-half EPS to reach its full-year range. That is not inherently concerning given EIX’s earnings seasonality, but it makes management’s confidence in second-half cost and revenue assumptions important.
The cleanest positive outcome would be:
The existing 2026 midpoint of $6.05 represents only about 3.5% growth from management’s adjusted 2025 starting point. EIX has attributed the muted 2026 growth rate to several items that should not affect later periods, while describing 2027 growth as being near the high end of its 5%–7% long-term range. (download.edison.com)
In Q1, higher revenue contributed $0.52 per share year over year at SCE, but higher interest expense absorbed $0.34, with depreciation and other costs providing additional offsets. That pattern—strong regulated revenue growth accompanied by rising financing and asset costs—is likely to remain central to the Q2 bridge. (download.edison.com)
What would be disappointing: A guidance reaffirmation that relies on unusually strong fourth-quarter earnings, higher-than-expected regulatory true-ups or a reduction in planned operating expenditures.
The Eaton Fire remains the central source of uncertainty in the EIX investment case. At March 31, SCE had recorded $1.3 billion of losses related to Eaton settlements, with expected recoveries of $917 million from customer-funded self-insurance, $295 million from the Wildfire Fund and $70 million through FERC rates. EIX was still unable to estimate the broader range of potential losses. (sec.gov)
The compensation program has accelerated substantially:
This compares with roughly $500 million of offers and more than $100 million paid when EIX last reported. The rapid increase should produce updated accruals, recoveries and cash-flow disclosures.
Can EIX now estimate any portion of the total loss range?
The emergence of an estimate would be a major event. The amount, funding assumptions and implied shareholder exposure would matter more than Q2 EPS.
How much additional loss was recognized during Q2?
Investors should distinguish between amounts offered, accepted, paid and accrued.
Has SCE begun receiving Wildfire Fund reimbursements?
SCE’s first $1 billion of eligible damages is principally covered by customer-funded self-insurance; eligible costs above that threshold can access the Wildfire Fund, subject to approval and claims-paying capacity. (sec.gov)
Are program economics changing?
Watch the average offer, acceptance rate, claim composition and participation by represented claimants.
Is the January 2027 bellwether trial still the relevant litigation timetable?
As of the Q1 filing, SCE faced approximately 2,000 Eaton-related lawsuits representing roughly 30,000 individual plaintiffs, with a bellwether jury trial scheduled for January 2027. (sec.gov)
A growing accounting loss is not necessarily a bearish development if it is accompanied by clear funding and efficient settlements. Conversely, a higher estimate that includes meaningful unrecoverable or shareholder-funded costs would alter the investment thesis.
The California Earthquake Authority’s SB 254 study laid out several possible reforms, including:
California’s 2026 legislative session is scheduled to conclude on August 31, leaving a relatively narrow window after the earnings call. (senate.ca.gov)
Investors should listen for management’s assessment of:
Management previously warned that insufficient reform could eventually increase utility financing costs and require a reassessment of future capital allocation. Any moderation or escalation of that language could move the stock.
EIX’s long-term earnings case rests on:
The capital plan includes the approved 2025 GRC, FERC transmission investments, Advanced Metering Infrastructure 2.0 and spending expected to be requested in the 2029 GRC. Approximately half of the proposed $3.1 billion AMI 2.0 program falls within the 2026–2030 plan. (download.edison.com)
SCE also filed its 2026 Risk Assessment and Mitigation Phase application on May 15. The RAMP filing is the first regulatory step toward the 2029–2032 GRC and addresses wildfire, reliability, cybersecurity and climate-adaptation spending. (cpuc.ca.gov)
The no-equity plan is an important differentiator. Any qualification—particularly one linked to Eaton claims, legislation or credit metrics—would likely outweigh an otherwise solid quarterly result.
California utility affordability has become a prominent political issue. EIX argues that SCE has the lowest system-average rate among the state’s large investor-owned utilities and has targeted rate increases at or below inflation through 2030.
The earnings call should clarify whether affordability pressure is changing:
A favorable message would be that operating efficiencies and load growth allow EIX to preserve both its investment program and customer-rate trajectory. A less favorable message would be that political pressure is beginning to constrain otherwise recoverable investment.
Aaron Moss became EIX’s CFO effective July 3 after serving as SCE’s CFO. Maria Rigatti remains an executive vice president through her planned September 1 retirement. (sec.gov)
The transition should be low risk because Moss already has substantial experience with SCE’s regulatory, operational and financing model. Nevertheless, investors will look for his priorities concerning:
This would be fundamentally acceptable, although the stock reaction could be muted after its strong year-to-date performance.
The report is principally a test of de-risking, not quarterly earnings momentum.
The regulated earnings outlook is comparatively visible: EIX has an approved GRC, a large capital program, approximately 7% projected rate-base growth and multi-year EPS guidance. The unresolved issue is whether Eaton Fire liabilities and California’s wildfire framework can be managed without impairing that outlook.
A clean report would consist of a modest EPS beat, unchanged or improved guidance, continued capital-plan execution and no adverse change in Eaton funding assumptions. The strongest possible catalyst would be improved visibility into wildfire reform or a clearer, manageable Eaton liability range.
At approximately 13 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and an indicated dividend yield of roughly 4.5%, the shares do not require perfection. But after the roughly 31% year-to-date advance, they likely require evidence that the remaining wildfire discount can continue to shrink—not merely another routine earnings beat.