Edison International (EIX) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Ticker: EIX Upcoming Earnings Date: July 30, 2026 (After Market Close) Prepared: July 29, 2026

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive — consensus Core EPS of $1.26 represents a low bar relative to EIX's reaffirmed full-year guidance of $5.90–$6.20, and the biggest swing factor is whether California's wildfire liability legislation advances before the August 31 legislative deadline.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for EIX is achievable: consensus Core EPS of $1.26 implies a meaningful step-up from Q2 2025's $0.97 actuals, driven by GRC-approved rate base growth and lower preferred dividend costs following the preferred stock redemption. Management's tone on the Q1 2026 call was confident and reaffirming — all 2026 and long-term targets were reiterated, the CFO transition to Aaron Moss (effective July 3) was framed as orderly, and the company highlighted a "cleaner regulatory slate" with fewer open proceedings. Estimate revisions have been modestly negative since Q1 earnings (Q2 consensus slipped from $1.51 to $1.26 vs. the as-of-5/5/26 baseline), reflecting the absence of one-time items and seasonal patterns, but the full-year FY2026 consensus of $6.13 is essentially unchanged, suggesting the street is comfortable with the annual trajectory. The stock has outperformed sharply since the Q1 print (+15.7% vs. XLU −2.9% and SPY +2.5%), pricing in meaningful de-risking from SB 254 protections and regulatory clarity — which raises the bar for a positive surprise on the print itself. The wildcard is California wildfire legislation: the legislative session ends August 31, and both PCG (Q2 2026 earnings July 23) and EIX management have warned that failure to pass a durable framework could trigger broad credit rating consequences — a negative outcome here would be the single largest downside risk to the stock regardless of the quarterly print.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus Core EPS of $1.26 is a low bar relative to the full-year guidance midpoint run-rate; revenue is the secondary swing factor given GRC-driven rate base growth. The bigger debate is FFO/Debt trajectory and whether wildfire legislation unlocks further credit improvement.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Q2 2026 consensus as of July 29, 2026. FY2026 guidance from Q1 2026 earnings call (April 28, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Top 2 KPIs)

Top KPI 1: Core EPS (EPS-Diluted - Operating)

Pattern: EIX has beaten Core EPS consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the two misses (Q4 2024, Q2 2025) concentrated in seasonally weak quarters — Q2 is historically a softer quarter, suggesting the current $1.26 consensus may already embed some conservatism.

Top KPI 2: Total Operating Revenue

Pattern: Revenue has beaten or met consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters; the one miss (Q1 2025) was driven by timing of regulatory cost recovery items. Revenue beats have been consistent and broad-based, reflecting GRC-driven rate base growth.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance is unchanged since the Q1 2026 earnings call — all financial targets reaffirmed with no post-earnings revisions. Tone has escalated on wildfire legislation urgency, shifting from strategic advocacy to existential framing as the August 31 legislative deadline approaches.

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 Core EPS estimates have declined ~16% since the Q1 print baseline (from $1.51 to $1.26), reflecting seasonal normalization and the absence of one-time items — but full-year FY2026 consensus is essentially flat, confirming the street is comfortable with the annual trajectory. The gap between Q2 consensus and the implied quarterly run-rate of guidance ($1.51/quarter at the midpoint) represents cushion, not risk.

The Q2 Core EPS estimate decline of ~17% since the post-Q1 baseline is entirely explained by seasonal patterns and the absence of one-time items (Q1 2025 had a ~$0.30 TKM cost recovery benefit that inflated the prior-year base). Full-year estimates are essentially unchanged, confirming the street is not revising down the annual story — the Q2 bar is simply a seasonally soft quarter.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: EIX has dramatically outperformed since Q1 earnings (+15.7% vs. XLU −2.9% and SPY +2.5%), driven by multiple re-rating as wildfire liability risk was de-risked through SB 254 protections and regulatory clarity — the stock is no longer pricing in a deep discount, raising the bar for further upside from the print alone.

EIX vs. XLU (Utilities ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (April 28, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance.

EIX closed at $67.94 on April 28 (Q1 earnings day) and reached $78.63 by July 28, a gain of +15.7%. The XLU utilities ETF declined 2.9% over the same period, and the S&P 500 gained 2.5%, making EIX's outperformance of ~18 percentage points vs. XLU one of the strongest in the regulated utility peer group. Key events driving the move: (1) SB 254 wildfire liability framework providing liability cap clarity; (2) GRC regulatory clarity through 2028 with no major open proceedings; (3) CFO transition to Aaron Moss (July 3) executed smoothly; (4) PCG Q2 earnings (July 23) and NEE Q2 earnings (July 24) providing constructive California utility read-throughs. The stock now trades at a narrowed discount to utility peers, suggesting the easy re-rating trade may be largely complete.

Sector ETF used: XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund) — appropriate for EIX's regulated electric utility sub-sector. Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the approaching California wildfire legislation deadline (August 31) — passage of a durable SB 254 Phase 2 framework would be the single largest positive catalyst for EIX's credit profile and multiple, while failure would be the primary downside risk to the print and beyond.

• July 2026 — California Wildfire Legislation Deadline Approaching (August 31): The California legislative session ends August 31, with bills needing to be in print by August 28. EIX management explicitly warned on the Q1 call that without action, "credit rating impacts not only for utilities or for insurance companies, but you could see it in other sectors in the state, you could see it for the state's own financing authority." PCG's Q2 2026 earnings (July 23) echoed this urgency, noting both S&P and Moody's have highlighted a durable legislative solution as the catalyst for additional upgrades.
• July 3, 2026 — CFO Transition Completed: Aaron Moss (Erin Moss) assumed the CFO role at Edison International, transitioning from SCE's CFO position. Maria Rigatti's retirement is effective September 1, 2026. The transition was flagged as orderly on the Q1 call; Moss has been a key leader in SCE's operational excellence efforts.
• July 2026 — Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program (WRCP) Update: SCE's WRCP related to the Eaton Fire has received nearly 11,700 claims from individuals, trusts, and legal entities, and remains open for submissions through November 30, 2026. Approximately 30,000 plaintiffs have filed claims, with the statute of limitations running through January 2028. Management has stated the ultimate liability remains "not estimable."
• July 2026 — California Lawmakers Advancing Independent Audit Requirements: California lawmakers are advancing measures that would require independent audits of utility wildfire mitigation spending before regulators approve cost recovery. This adds a layer of oversight that could affect how EIX seeks to recover future wildfire-related costs.
• March 2026 — AMI 2.0 Application Filed: SCE filed its AMI 2.0 application requesting approximately $3.1 billion of capital investment through 2033 for advanced metering infrastructure replacement. About half of this capital is already incorporated in the existing capital plan. Intervenors are expected to provide comments in July, with a decision to follow.
• March 2026 — Office of Energy & Infrastructure Safety Approved SCE's Annual Safety Certification: After an independent assessment of SCE's Wildfire Mitigation Plan (WMP), the certification was approved. Physical hardening work on the distribution system in high fire risk areas is now ~93% complete, with 7,100+ miles of covered conductor and nearly 100 miles of undergrounding deployed.
• Q1 2026 — Board Appointment: Susan Hardwick, former CEO of American Water, joined the EIX Board, bringing over 35 years of leadership experience in electric and water utilities.
• Q1 2026 — Affordability Rhetoric / Political Risk: CEO Pedro Pizarro directly addressed claims by a California gubernatorial candidate regarding a "25% rate reduction by breaking up the monopoly utilities," stating there is no "fact basis" for such a reduction. Management committed to rate increases at or below inflation through 2030. This political dynamic is a new risk factor heading into the 2026 election cycle.

7. Peer Commentaries — Read-Through (Last 60 Days, Q2 2026 Relevant)

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from Q2 2026 reporters (PCG, NEE, ETR) and Q1 2026 reporters commenting on Q2/full-year outlook (AEP, EXC, DUK, PEG) is broadly constructive for EIX on load growth, capital deployment, and regulatory execution — but the California wildfire legislation read-through from PCG is the most critical signal, with PCG's Q2 results and reaffirmed guidance suggesting the California utility framework is holding up operationally even as the legislative deadline looms.

Note: Only peer commentary relevant to Q2 2026 (current reporting quarter) or forward-looking commentary made after Q1 2026 earnings is included below. Prior-quarter results commentary has been excluded.

PG&E Corporation (PCG) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 23, 2026)

Relevance to EIX: Highest read-through — PCG is EIX's closest California utility peer, sharing the same wildfire liability framework, CPUC regulatory environment, and affordability pressures.

• California Wildfire Legislation — Urgency Confirmed: PCG reaffirmed that its five-year plan "assumes that California will follow through on the commitment made in SB 254 to strengthen the wildfire liability framework." Both S&P and Moody's "continued to highlight the importance of a durable legislative solution to wildfire liability as the catalyst for additional upgrades." PCG warned that if the framework "remains unresolved or insufficient, then we would need to reevaluate our capital allocation priorities and long-term investment plans."
• CEA Study Quantifies Wildfire Cost Burden: The California Earthquake Authority study found that "wildfire-related charges now account for approximately $20 to $40 per month, as much as 14 to 19% of monthly bills." PCG noted "the cost of inaction is too high to ignore." This directly supports EIX's advocacy for legislative action and frames the affordability argument.
• PCG Q2 2026 Core EPS of $0.40 — On Track for Double-Digit Growth: PCG reported Q2 2026 core EPS of $0.40 and H1 2026 core EPS of $0.83, reaffirming full-year guidance of $1.64–$1.66 (midpoint +10% vs. 2025). This is a positive read-through for California utility earnings quality and GRC execution.
• S&P Upgrade — One Notch Below Investment Grade: Following PCG's Q1 call, S&P upgraded PCG's rating to "just one notch below investment grade," citing progress in reducing wildfire risk through mitigation efforts. This is a positive signal for the California utility credit environment broadly, though EIX is already investment grade.
• Data Center Pipeline at 12 GW — Load Growth Accelerating: PCG's data center pipeline grew to over 12 GW (from 10 GW pre-application interest), with a planning assumption of ~1.8 GW addition of load by 2030. This validates the California load growth thesis that underpins EIX's rate base investment case.
• Affordability — Residential Rates Down 23% Since Jan 2024: PCG highlighted that residential bundled electric rates are down 23% since January 2024 for its most vulnerable customers, and committed to 0–3% annual customer bill growth. This is a positive read-through for EIX's own affordability commitments and political positioning.

NextEra Energy (NEE) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 24, 2026)

Relevance to EIX: Moderate read-through — NEE is the largest regulated utility and a bellwether for sector sentiment, load growth, and capital deployment trends. No California exposure.

• Strong Q2 2026 Results — Adjusted EPS +9.8% YoY: NEE reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.15, with H1 2026 adjusted EPS up 9.8% year-over-year. This is a positive sector read-through for regulated utility earnings quality and execution.
• Load Growth Accelerating — FPL Large Load Pipeline at 21 GW: NEE updated its large load expectations from 6 GW to 8 GW by 2032 at FPL, with 21 GW of total large load interest and advanced discussions on 12 GW. This validates the secular load growth thesis that supports EIX's capital investment case in Southern California.
• Energy Resources Backlog at 35.1 GW — Record Additions: Energy Resources added 3.6 GW of renewables and storage to its backlog in Q2, its second-largest quarter of additions. Battery storage represented 2 GW of additions. This is a positive read-through for clean energy investment demand broadly.
• NEE-Dominion Combination — Regulatory Filings Underway: NEE filed for merger approval with Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, FERC, and NRC on July 15. The combination is expected to close in H2 2027 and support ~11% annual growth in regulatory capital employed through 2032. This is a sector-level event that could reshape utility peer group dynamics.

Entergy (ETR) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 29, 2026) & Investor Day (June 9, 2026)

Relevance to EIX: Moderate read-through — ETR is a high-growth regulated utility with the strongest load growth story in the sector; validates the data center and industrial load thesis. No California exposure.

• Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS of $1.03 — On Track: ETR reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.03, slightly below prior year due to near-normal weather vs. warmer 2025 conditions. Excluding weather, retail sales growth was positive with 10% industrial sales growth. ETR reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and outlooks through 2030.
• Investor Day — Highest Rate Base Growth in Industry (16% CAGR): ETR's June 9 Investor Day projected $97 billion of rate base by 2030 (16% CAGR since 2025), described as "the highest rate base growth in the industry." Data center pipeline of 7–12 GW for hyperscale and 3–5 GW for traditional industrials. This validates the secular capital deployment thesis that supports EIX's own 7% rate base CAGR.
• FFO/Debt — Highest in Industry on Moody's Basis: ETR closed 2025 with "the highest FFO to debt on a Moody's basis in the industry." This is a positive sector read-through for credit quality trends, though EIX's own 15%–17% target is already strong.
• Fair Share Plus Pledge — Data Centers Pay Full Cost: ETR's commitment to ensuring data centers pay their full incremental costs and share of fixed costs is expected to generate "$7 billion in customer bill benefits." This is a positive read-through for the regulatory framework around large load growth that EIX is also pursuing in Southern California.

American Electric Power (AEP) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 5, 2026) — Forward-Looking Commentary

Relevance to EIX: Moderate read-through — AEP is the largest regulated utility by transmission footprint; its load growth and capital plan expansion validates the secular investment thesis. No California exposure.

• 63 GW of Contracted Load by 2030 — Unprecedented Demand: AEP contracted an additional 7 GW of load in Q1 2026, bringing total incremental contracted load to 63 GW expected by 2030 (up from 56 GW last quarter). Nearly 90% is from data centers. AEP raised its 5-year capital plan to $78 billion (from $72 billion), driving an 11% rate base CAGR. This is a strong read-through for the secular load growth and capital deployment thesis underpinning EIX's own investment case.
• Capital Plan Raised to $78B — Transmission at $33B (42% of Plan): AEP's transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall capital plan. New 765 kV transmission projects awarded in SPP, PJM, and MISO. This validates the grid investment supercycle thesis.
• Reaffirmed 7%–9% EPS Growth Through 2030: AEP reaffirmed its premium operating earnings growth rate of 7%–9% for 2026–2030, with the $6 billion capital plan increase expected to be accretive and push long-term CAGR to "greater than 9%." This is a positive read-through for EIX's own 5%–7% growth target, which looks conservative by comparison.
• Affordability — $16B in Cost Offsets for Existing Customers: AEP is forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from large load contract contributions over the life of agreements. This validates the affordability-through-load-growth framework that EIX is also pursuing.

Exelon (EXC) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 6, 2026) — Forward-Looking Commentary

Relevance to EIX: Low-to-moderate read-through — EXC is a pure-play regulated T&D utility; its capital plan rebalancing and affordability focus are relevant themes but no California exposure.

• Q2 2026 Guidance — ~15% of Full-Year Midpoint: EXC guided Q2 2026 earnings to approximately 15% of the midpoint of its $2.81–$2.91 full-year guidance range, implying ~$0.43/share. Combined with Q1, this would represent 47% of full-year earnings in H1, consistent with seasonal shaping. This is a useful read-through for EIX's own Q2 seasonal pattern.
• Capital Plan Revised to $41.7B — Transmission Accelerated: EXC revised its 4-year capital plan to $41.7 billion, including $1.1 billion of distribution deferrals offset by $1.5 billion of incremental transmission investment. Transmission rate base expected to grow at 16% through 2029. This validates the transmission investment supercycle.
• PECO Rate Case Withdrawal — Affordability Prioritized: EXC made a "deliberate timing-based decision" to withdraw recently filed electric and gas rate cases at PECO in Pennsylvania, citing customer affordability considerations. This is a read-through for the regulatory risk of pushing rate increases in a politically sensitive environment — relevant to EIX's own affordability commitments.
• Data Center Pipeline Backed by $1B of FERC-Approved Collateral: EXC's data center pipeline is increasingly backed by FERC-approved transmission security agreements, which have secured approximately $1 billion of collateral. This validates the importance of contractual protections for large load interconnections.

Duke Energy (DUK) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 5, 2026) — Forward-Looking Commentary

Relevance to EIX: Low-to-moderate read-through — DUK is a large regulated utility with strong load growth; validates the data center and capital deployment thesis. No California exposure.

• 7.6 GW of Data Center ESAs Signed — "Once in a Generation Build Cycle": DUK has signed approximately 7.6 GW of Electric Service Agreements with data center customers, with nearly two-thirds already under construction. Late-stage pipeline stands at 15.4 GW. This validates the secular load growth thesis.
• Reaffirmed 5%–7% Long-Term EPS Growth Through 2030: DUK reaffirmed its 2026 guidance range of $6.55–$6.80 and its 5%–7% long-term EPS growth rate, with increased confidence in delivering results in the top half of the range starting in 2028. This is a positive read-through for EIX's own 5%–7% growth target.
• FFO/Debt Target of 14.5% in 2026, 15% Long-Term: DUK is on track to deliver 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term. This is a positive read-through for EIX's own 15%–17% FFO/debt target, which is at the high end of the peer range.
• $103B Capital Plan — Funded by $5B+ in Asset Sale Proceeds: DUK's $103 billion capital plan is funded in part by over $5 billion in proceeds from the sale of Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee and Brookfield's minority investment in Duke Energy Florida. This validates the capital recycling approach to funding large utility investment programs.

PSEG (PEG) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 5, 2026) — Forward-Looking Commentary

Relevance to EIX: Low read-through — PEG is a New Jersey-focused regulated utility; limited California read-through but useful for sector-level affordability and regulatory themes.

• Maintaining FY2026 Guidance of $4.28–$4.40/Share: PSEG maintained its full-year non-GAAP operating earnings guidance, with Q1 2026 results described as a "solid start." Capital spending plan of ~$4.2 billion for 2026 remains on track.
• Affordability — Electric Rates Kept Flat in 2026: PSEG worked with the Governor's office and NJ BPU to keep electric rates flat in 2026. This is a read-through for the political pressure on utilities to manage affordability, consistent with EIX's own commitments.
• Data Center Interest in NJ Leveled Off — Absent Tax Incentives: PSEG noted that "absent the significant tax incentives in New Jersey, you have not seen the sizable interest in New Jersey" for data centers. This is a cautionary read-through — California's regulatory and tax environment will be critical to EIX's load growth thesis materializing.
• 6%–8% Non-GAAP Operating EPS CAGR Reaffirmed Through 2030: PSEG reaffirmed its 6%–8% compounded annual growth rate for non-GAAP operating earnings through 2030, with a 6%–7.5% rate base CAGR. No new equity or asset sales required. Positive read-through for EIX's no-equity commitment.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Insider activity since Q1 2026 earnings is minimal and not alarming — the only transaction is a small 10b5-1 planned sale by a Director, which is obligation-driven and carries no negative signal. The absence of open-market buys is notable given the stock's 15%+ run, but not unusual for a utility with a stable dividend and no equity issuance needs.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings / Insider Transaction Data. Window: April 28, 2026 – July 29, 2026. Only open-market buys/sells (Form 4 codes P/S) and 10b5-1 plan transactions included.

No open-market purchases or discretionary sales were filed by executives or directors during the post-Q1 earnings window. The sole transaction is a small 10b5-1 planned sale by Director Peter Taylor (500 shares, ~$38K), which is pre-scheduled and carries no informational content about management's view of the stock. The absence of insider buying following the stock's 15%+ run is consistent with the utility sector norm where executives rely on dividends rather than capital gains for compensation.