Timing note: Equinix’s second-quarter earnings call is scheduled for today, Wednesday, July 29, 2026, at 5:30 p.m. ET, not tomorrow. The company will discuss results for the quarter ended June 30.
Equinix enters the report with strong operating momentum and elevated expectations. First-quarter recurring revenue grew 10% on a normalized, constant-currency basis, bookings and presales reached record levels, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 51%. Management consequently raised its 2026 revenue, EBITDA and AFFO outlook.
The stock reflects much of that strength: EQIX closed at $1,034.90 on July 28, approximately 35% above its January 2 close. At that price, shares trade at roughly 24.2x the midpoint of management’s 2026 AFFO-per-share guidance.
The main question is therefore not simply whether Equinix meets its reported Q2 targets. Investors will want evidence that the underlying recurring business remains strong after separating out a large, unusual xScale lease contribution.
| Metric | Q2 management guidance / prior commentary |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.571B–$2.611B |
| Revenue midpoint | $2.591B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.349B–$1.389B |
| Adjusted EBITDA midpoint | $1.369B |
| Implied EBITDA margin at midpoint | 52.8% |
| Recurring capex | $46M–$66M |
| Expected MRR growth | 10%–11% YoY, normalized constant currency |
| Hampton xScale contribution embedded in Q2 | Approximately $80M revenue, $65M AFFO and $0.65 AFFO/share |
The Hampton lease makes the reported quarter unusually difficult to interpret. Subtracting its expected $80 million contribution from the revenue midpoint gives an illustrative base of approximately $2.511 billion, only about 3% above Q1 reported revenue. That is not an organic-growth calculation—currency, power pass-throughs and other items also matter—but it illustrates why the recurring-revenue and operating metrics will carry more weight than the headline growth rate.
Equinix originally expected the Hampton lease to contribute in late 2025, then moved the transaction into Q1 2026 while negotiating expanded terms, and finally embedded it in Q2 guidance.
Management said the expanded economics represented approximately:
Investors should look for three things:
Because Hampton was already included in full-year guidance, its completion should not, by itself, justify a material 2026 outlook increase. Conversely, another delay could create a headline miss or renewed questions about forecasting visibility, even if the underlying economics remain intact.
The highest-quality result would be Hampton execution accompanied by strong recurring revenue, bookings and margins. A nominal beat driven primarily by a larger nonrecurring lease benefit would be less meaningful.
Management guided to 10%–11% normalized, constant-currency MRR growth in Q2 after 10% growth in Q1. Another double-digit result would support the case that Equinix is converting its record backlog into revenue while maintaining pricing power.
Key metrics to watch include:
Q1 provided a strong starting point:
Some Q1 churn was delayed rather than eliminated, including activity related to the Metal wind-down. Management retained a full-year churn expectation of 2%–2.5%, despite tracking toward the low end. A move back above 2% in Q2 would not necessarily be alarming, but commentary on customer losses, downsizing or renewal pressure will matter.
Continued growth in MRR per cabinet would be especially constructive because it reflects both firm pricing and higher customer power density.
Equinix reported $378 million of annualized gross bookings in Q1, up 9% year over year, plus approximately $140 million of presales. Combined sales activity increased more than 35%, producing a record backlog.
That backlog provides visibility, but investors will want another healthy bookings quarter to sustain the growth narrative beyond 2026. Important questions include:
Equinix said roughly 25% of its planned 2026 retail expansion capacity had already been sold as of Q1. An increase would support future growth, although excessively long lead times could delay reported revenue.
Approximately 60% of Equinix’s largest Q1 deals were AI-related. The company also said eight of the top ten AI model providers and four of the top five neoclouds were expanding on its platform, with more than 110 network nodes deployed among them.
The bull case is increasingly centered on distributed AI inference, rather than solely on large training campuses. Equinix argues that inference workloads need low-latency access to enterprises, clouds, private data and regulated jurisdictions—areas where its metro footprint and interconnection ecosystem are differentiated.
Investors should listen for:
In Q1, Fabric revenue grew 26% and Fabric bookings approximately 70%, while total interconnection revenue grew 9%, all on a normalized constant-currency basis. Sustaining those rates would be one of the strongest indicators that AI demand is benefiting Equinix’s higher-value ecosystem rather than merely increasing capital requirements.
Q2 guidance implies a 52%–53% adjusted EBITDA margin, above Q1’s record 51% and well above the 48% recorded a year earlier.
Management attributed the improvement to cost discipline, operating leverage and prior efficiency initiatives. A result near the upper end of the margin range would demonstrate that Equinix can translate strong demand and pricing into faster EBITDA and AFFO growth.
Investors should distinguish between:
For the full year, management currently expects approximately a 51% adjusted EBITDA margin, around two percentage points above 2025. A guidance increase driven by durable margin improvement would likely be better received than one driven mainly by currency or nonrecurring revenue.
Equinix increased its 2026 capital-spending expectation to approximately $4.1 billion, including:
The company had 46 major construction projects underway across 32 markets at the end of Q1 and continues to target mid-20% unlevered cash-on-cash returns. Stabilized assets were 82% utilized and generated a 26% cash-on-cash return.
The central concern is whether power, land and construction constraints force EQIX to spend more or wait longer to monetize demand. Management has identified power availability as the largest constraint, particularly as deployments become denser.
Questions for the call:
Q1 adjusted free cash flow was negative as investment accelerated. That is not inherently problematic for a growth REIT, but investors will want confidence that spending is supported by presales and attractive risk-adjusted returns.
At the end of Q1, Equinix reported approximately $3.1 billion of cash and short-term investments, 3.8x net leverage and roughly $22.1 billion of debt principal. Management has said debt will remain its primary source of external growth financing, with equity used opportunistically.
The call should include an update on the planned acquisition of atNorth, which would add an installed and active development pipeline of approximately 800 megawatts in the Nordic region. Equinix previously expected the transaction to be immediately accretive to AFFO per share upon closing.
Investors should watch for:
Chief Business Officer Jon Lin left the company effective July 18. Equinix distributed his responsibilities across the existing senior leadership team and said it expected to announce a new Chief Product Officer.
One departure should not overshadow the operating results, but Lin held a commercially important role. Investors will want reassurance that the transition is orderly and has not affected sales execution, customer relationships or product strategy.
This comes shortly after Olivier Leonetti joined as CFO, making management continuity and execution a relevant secondary topic.
Current 2026 guidance is:
| Metric | FY26 guidance |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.144B–$10.244B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $5.165B–$5.245B |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | Approximately 51% |
| AFFO | $4.198B–$4.278B |
| AFFO per share | $42.31–$43.11 |
| Total capex | Approximately $4.1B |
Q1’s guidance increase already incorporated the quarter’s operating outperformance. With the stock trading at about 24x guided AFFO, simply reiterating the outlook may not be enough unless the underlying KPIs are strong.
A constructive report would likely include:
A weaker setup would include:
The Q2 headline numbers are unusually noisy because of the Hampton xScale lease. The most useful test is therefore the performance underneath that transaction.
If Equinix sustains double-digit MRR growth, strong bookings, accelerating interconnection adoption and 52%–53% margins, the report would reinforce the view that AI inference and hybrid-cloud architectures are producing durable, high-return demand. But after the stock’s substantial 2026 advance, investors are likely to demand both clean execution and evidence that current momentum extends beyond the one-time Hampton benefit.