| ERIE |
Report |
Diluted EPS (Class A) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.70 vs. cons $3.58 |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange direct written premium (DWP) growth YoY |
MISS |
pred ~3.0% vs. cons ~4.0% |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange GAAP combined ratio (Q2) |
BEAT |
pred ~101% vs. cons ~105% (prior-yr 116.9%) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
H2 2026 DWP growth trajectory (mgmt commentary; no formal guide) |
LOWER |
guide ~2-3% vs. cons ~4% (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Policies-in-force / retention trend |
LOWER |
guide ~ -1.7% to -2.5% PIF, retention ~88% vs. cons ~-1% / ~89% (FY26) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Management fee rate (2026) |
UNCHANGED |
guide 25.0% vs. cons 25.0% (FY26) |
HIGH |
| ERIE |
Guide |
CFO succession / continuity (Pelkowski retiring YE26) |
UNKNOWN |
guide n/a successor unnamed vs. cons n/a (YE26) |
LOW |
| ERIE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.0% |
— |
LOW |
| ERIE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.5% (FADE) |
Stock ran +17% into the print (from ~$210 on 7/22 to ~$246), setting up sell-the-news. Even with an EPS beat and a big combined-ratio recovery vs the cat-heavy Q2'25 (116.9%), the DWP growth step-down (from 9.2% a year ago toward ~3%) plus negative PIF/retention confirms the bear thesis that a rate-driven top line caps the 25% management-fee engine. Out-period math pulls forward fee-revenue estimates down even after a headline beat, so the initial drop follows through / fades further rather than recovering. |
LOW |