| ERIE |
Report |
Diluted EPS (Q2 2026) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.32 vs. cons $3.35 |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange Combined Ratio (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~101.5% vs. cons/implied ~98.0% |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange Direct Written Premium Growth y/y (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~2.5% vs. cons/implied ~4.0% |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
FY2026 Diluted EPS (implied trajectory) |
LOWER |
guide/implied ~$12.10 vs. cons $12.47 (FY2026) |
LOW |
| ERIE |
Guide |
FY2026 Exchange Direct Written Premium Growth |
LOWER |
guide/implied ~3.0% vs. cons/prior run-rate ~5.0% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Policy Retention Rate |
LOWER |
guide/implied ~87% vs. cons/expectation of stabilization at 88% (Q2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
ERIE ran up ~18% into the print (from $210 to $248) far outpacing XLF (+1%), pricing in a clean 'turning the corner' quarter; a combined-ratio miss driven by Midwest convective-storm exposure (echoing CINF's CR miss) plus continued DWP/retention deceleration gives analysts concrete out-period math to trim FY26/FY27 EPS and premium-growth estimates even if headline EPS is roughly in-line, so the initial pullback extends over the week as revisions catch down; CEO-succession uncertainty and a thin analyst base amplify the drift rather than let it fade. |
LOW |