| ERIE |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.46 vs. cons $3.35 |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Management-fee revenue — policy issuance and renewal |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$848M vs. cons $852M |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Policies in force growth, YoY |
MISS |
pred ~-2.1% vs. cons -1.7% |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Exchange written-premium growth commentary |
LOWER |
guide ~2.5% vs. cons 3.2% (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Policies in force growth commentary |
LOWER |
guide ~-1.8% vs. cons -1.3% (4Q26 exit rate) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Policy-services operating margin |
LOWER |
guide ~19.0% vs. cons 19.5% (2H26) |
LOW |
| ERIE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-7.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A modest EPS beat is outweighed by weaker policy growth and implicit 2H26 written-premium growth of ~2.5% versus 3.2% consensus; slower out-period management-fee growth and weaker operating leverage should drive estimate cuts, extending the residual move from ~-4.8% on day 1 to ~-7.2% cumulatively by day 5. |
MEDIUM |