{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.46 vs. cons $3.35",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Management-fee revenue \u2014 policy issuance and renewal",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$848M vs. cons $852M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Policies in force growth, YoY",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~-2.1% vs. cons -1.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Exchange written-premium growth commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.5% vs. cons 3.2% (2H26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Policies in force growth commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-1.8% vs. cons -1.3% (4Q26 exit rate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Policy-services operating margin",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~19.0% vs. cons 19.5% (2H26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -4.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -7.2,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A modest EPS beat is outweighed by weaker policy growth and implicit 2H26 written-premium growth of ~2.5% versus 3.2% consensus; slower out-period management-fee growth and weaker operating leverage should drive estimate cuts, extending the residual move from ~-4.8% on day 1 to ~-7.2% cumulatively by day 5.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}