| ERIE |
Report |
Diluted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.66 vs. cons $3.59 |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange direct and affiliated assumed written-premium growth |
MISS |
pred ~3.0% vs. cons 4.2% |
HIGH |
| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange combined ratio |
BEAT |
pred ~103.5% vs. cons 105.0% |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
2H26 direct written-premium-growth outlook / Erie Secure Auto contribution |
LOWER |
guide ~3.5% vs. cons 4.5% (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Policies-in-force trajectory |
LOWER |
guide ~-1.0% vs. cons 0.0% (FY26) |
HIGH |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Exchange underwriting outlook / combined ratio |
BETTER |
guide ~102.5% vs. cons 104.0% (FY26) |
LOW |
| ERIE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-4.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-6.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
EPS and the combined ratio should be favorable at ~3.66 versus $3.59 and ~103.5% versus 105.0%, but the more consequential out-period signal is likely ~3.0% written-premium growth versus 4.2% consensus and a ~-1.0% policies-in-force outlook versus 0.0%. That implies downward 2H26/FY26 management-fee revenue and earnings revisions despite a quarterly EPS beat. |
MEDIUM |