| ERIE |
Report |
Exchange Combined Ratio |
BEAT |
pred ~96-97% vs. cons ~97-99% (UNVERIFIED point estimate) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Direct Written Premium Growth (YoY) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~4.5-5.5% vs. cons ~4-5% (UNVERIFIED) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Report |
Management Fee Revenue |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$855-865M vs. cons ~$855M (UNVERIFIED) |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Guide |
Combined Ratio Trajectory (FY 2026 qualitative) |
UNCHANGED |
guide 'continued improvement toward breakeven' vs. cons ~100-102% FY 2026 |
HIGH |
| ERIE |
Guide |
DWP Growth / Retention Outlook (FY 2026 qualitative) |
UNCHANGED |
guide 'competitive market, Erie Secure Auto early traction' vs. cons ~4-6% FY DWP growth |
HIGH |
| ERIE |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-7.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| ERIE |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-5.0% (FADE) |
FADE — partial recovery from Day-1 lows as combined ratio beat is digested and short-covering provides a floor; no full reversal as DWP growth story is unchanged and sell-side has no estimate catalyst to revise up |
MEDIUM |