{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Exchange Combined Ratio",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~96-97% vs. cons ~97-99% (UNVERIFIED point estimate)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Direct Written Premium Growth (YoY)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~4.5-5.5% vs. cons ~4-5% (UNVERIFIED)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Management Fee Revenue",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$855-865M vs. cons ~$855M (UNVERIFIED)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Combined Ratio Trajectory (FY 2026 qualitative)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 'continued improvement toward breakeven' vs. cons ~100-102% FY 2026",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "DWP Growth / Retention Outlook (FY 2026 qualitative)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide 'competitive market, Erie Secure Auto early traction' vs. cons ~4-6% FY DWP growth",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -7.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -5.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "FADE \u2014 partial recovery from Day-1 lows as combined ratio beat is digested and short-covering provides a floor; no full reversal as DWP growth story is unchanged and sell-side has no estimate catalyst to revise up",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}