ES Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ES Report Q2 non-GAAP EPS IN-LINE pred ~$0.88 vs. cons $0.87 MEDIUM
ES Report Q2 revenue IN-LINE pred ~$2.85B vs. cons ~$2.88B LOW
ES Report Q2 GAAP EPS (incl. ~$0.31 Aquarion loss-on-sale charge) MISS pred ~$0.56 vs. cons ~$0.62 LOW
ES Guide FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide ~$4.65 (range $4.57-$4.72) vs. cons $4.66 (FY2026) HIGH
ES Guide Long-term EPS CAGR (off $4.65 base) UNCHANGED guide ~5-7% (upper-half by 2028) vs. Street ~6% (2025-2029) MEDIUM
ES Guide FERC transmission Section 205 ROE path UNKNOWN guide ~11.39% target vs. current 9.57% base (effective 2H26, subject to refund) LOW
ES Guide CL&P rate case ask / affordability tone UNKNOWN guide ~$727M (~18% res. bill) vs. no cons est. (decision 2027) LOW
ES Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.6% MEDIUM
ES Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.3% (FADE) In-line EPS and a twice-reset guide reaffirmed at $4.65 midpoint offer no upside revision catalyst, while the stock sits near 52-week highs (+10% YTD, well ahead of XLU) with the de-risking thesis largely priced. No out-period estimate raise, ongoing FERC retroactive-refund overhang, and politically charged CL&P rate case tone bias post-print revisions/positioning modestly lower, so an initial flat-to-down reaction fades further. LOW