I'll research ES (Eversource Energy) before writing the preview. Let me gather recent earnings, filings, news, and price data.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and check for recent filings/news.Let me check recent developments since the Q1 call (Aquarion close, FERC, Revolution Wind, CT rate case) via news and 8-Ks.Let me read the Aquarion sale completion 8-K and the recent news video transcript.Let me check the latest on Revolution Wind status and the CL&P rate case / FERC ROE developments, plus consensus estimates.Let me get specifics on the CL&P rate case filing and Q2 consensus, plus Revolution Wind latest.I have enough to write a well-grounded preview. Here it is.

Eversource Energy (ES) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Reports before market open Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Conference call 9:00 a.m. ET

Bottom line

This is a "prove the de-risking is working" quarter more than an EPS quarter. Eversource's numbers should be a sideshow relative to the three overhangs investors actually care about: the FERC transmission ROE fight, the freshly-filed $727M CL&P rate case, and closure/proceeds deployment from the $2.4B Aquarion sale. The Street is looking for roughly $0.87 in non-GAAP EPS for Q2, with the full-year consensus of ~$4.66 sitting essentially on top of management's revised guidance midpoint of $4.65 (range $4.57–$4.72). With guidance already reset twice this year, the bar into the print is more about narrative and milestones than the headline.

1. What to watch on the numbers

Consensus: KeyBanc's Sophie Karp models $0.87 for Q2; full-year Street consensus is ~$4.66, versus company guidance of $4.57–$4.72 (midpoint $4.65).
GAAP vs. non-GAAP noise: Q2 GAAP will carry a ~$115M / ~$0.31 per share non-cash, non-recurring charge from the Aquarion loss on sale. That's already contemplated in guidance and excluded from non-GAAP — don't be surprised by an ugly GAAP headline.
Segment drivers YTD: Q1's beat was led by Gas distribution (+$0.18, MA rate increases + Yankee Gas rate case) and Transmission (+$0.06 ex-FERC charge). Watch whether gas momentum and transmission investment growth carry through Q2, and whether parent drag (higher interest + tax rate) keeps widening.
Guidance: Expect management to reaffirm 2026 of $4.57–$4.72 and the 5–7% long-term CAGR off the $4.65 base, upper-half by 2028. Any change to the 2026 range or the transmission ROE assumption embedded in it would be the swing factor.

2. The FERC transmission ROE — the single biggest variable

The March 19 FERC order cut the New England base transmission ROE from 10.57% to 9.57% (~$70M annual after-tax hit, plus a $43.9M/$0.12 refund charge booked in Q1). Eversource is fighting on multiple fronts, but the key catalyst is the Section 205 filing seeking a prospective 11.39% ROE (using FERC's own methodology but current data), which management expects to go effective later this year, subject to refund.

What to listen for: - Progress on the settlement-judge process (all six New England states' AGs/advocates at the table) and any read-through from the MISO ROE case as a data point. - Any update on the ~$880M retroactive refund exposure — management has not reserved beyond the 15-month period, arguing the retroactive-to-2014 piece is legally flawed. Any change in that accounting stance would be material. - Whether the ~11.39% eventually gets embedded in guidance (management said that decision waits until the Q4 call in February).

3. The CL&P rate case — new overhang, and it's politically hot

Since the last print, Eversource filed its first CL&P rate review in nine years, requesting a ~$727M annual increase (~18% on the average residential bill). It has already drawn a sharp political reaction — CT Attorney General Tong publicly branded the filing a "tone-deaf insult." This reframes the Connecticut story: after a period of constructive PURA decisions (the favorable RAM decision, storm reserve funding, forecast-based TPA rates), ES is now walking into a high-profile, affordability-charged proceeding.

What to listen for: procedural schedule, management's framing on affordability, and how it squares a large ask against a still-improving CT regulatory relationship. A decision isn't expected until 2027, so this is a multi-quarter overhang, not a near-term catalyst — but tone matters.

4. Balance-sheet de-risking — largely delivered

Aquarion closed June 30 at $2.4B, generating ~$1.7B net equity proceeds to pay down parent debt — completing the pivot to a pure-play regulated "pipes and wires" electric + gas utility. (Note: the buyer's bond sale reportedly implies CT water rates rising ~60% over a decade — a customer/political story, not an ES P&L story.)
FFO/debt sat at 14.2% (S&P) / 14.5% (Moody's), >100 bps above downgrade thresholds; S&P reaffirmed ratings with a stable outlook post-FERC.
Modest equity need of just $800M–$1.1B through 2030; the Feb JSN offering ($1.5B, 5x oversubscribed) plus ~$2B of CT + NH storm-cost securitization proceeds expected over the next 12–18 months give management flexibility and "no urgency" to issue equity. Watch for any updated equity/financing commentary and the timing of the CT storm-cost prudency decision (expected July) that unlocks securitization.

5. Revolution Wind — residual, but real, tail risk

Eversource exited offshore wind (sold to GIP), but retains a contingent liability to GIP tied to a post-closing purchase-price adjustment on Revolution/South Fork. The project endured federal stop-work orders in late 2025, with a court injunction in January 2026 allowing construction to resume; it was ~95% complete at the Q1 call with COD guided to 2H26. Any update to the commercial operation date or to the adequacy of the contingent liability balance is worth watching — a slip or cost overrun flows back to ES.

6. Setup into the print

Stock: ES closed ~$74.78 on 7/29, up ~10% YTD from ~$68, and has outperformed the utility sector (XLU roughly +4% YTD). It has fully recovered from the March FERC-decision swoon to ~$66 and is trading near the year's highs — meaning the "de-risking" thesis is at least partly priced in.
Dividend: quarterly $0.7875 ($3.15 annualized).
Risk/reward: With guidance twice-reset and consensus centered on the midpoint, the near-term EPS bar looks achievable. The asymmetry is in the qualitative updates — a constructive FERC settlement path or a smooth securitization timeline could support the re-rating; escalation on the FERC refund exposure or a contentious CL&P case reception are the downside pressures.

Scorecard for the call

Item	Bull signal	Bear signal
Guidance	Reaffirm/tighten toward high end	Any cut or ROE-assumption change
FERC 205	Settlement judge appointed, path to ~11.39%	No progress; retroactive refund reserve added
CL&P case	Constructive tone, affordability plan	Escalating political/regulatory friction
Financing	Securitization on track, no equity urgency	Larger/earlier equity need
Rev Wind	COD confirmed 2H26, liability unchanged	COD slip / higher contingent liability

Preview based on ES's Q1 2026 results and call, the June 30 Aquarion-close 8-K, and public news/regulatory developments through late July 2026. Consensus/estimate figures are as reported by third-party analysts and may differ from the company's actual reported basis.