ES Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ES Report Non-GAAP EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$0.90 vs. cons $0.88 MEDIUM
ES Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$3.05B vs. cons $3.07B LOW
ES Report GAAP EPS (incl. Aquarion $0.31 divestiture charge) MISS pred ~$0.59 vs. cons $0.85 MEDIUM
ES Guide FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS guidance range UNCHANGED guide ~$4.57-$4.72 (midpoint $4.65) vs. cons $4.66 (FY2026) HIGH
ES Guide CT/NH storm-cost securitization proceeds estimate LOWER guide ~$1.5B revised vs. prior ~$2.0B guided estimate (next 12-18 months) MEDIUM
ES Guide Long-term EPS CAGR off 2026 base UNCHANGED guide ~5-7% (upper half by 2028) vs. cons ~6% (2026-2030) MEDIUM
ES Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.8% MEDIUM
ES Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.7% (FADE) Stock is near 52-week highs pricing in resolution of overhangs; a slight non-GAAP beat and reaffirmed guidance is unlikely to spark upside since the CT PURA storm-cost decision (already public a day before earnings) trimmed ~$500M of recoverable carrying charges/securitization proceeds versus prior company guidance, and FERC ROE settlement remains unresolved. As analysts update models for the lower CT securitization base, extended CL&P rate-case risk, and the structural EPS step-down from the Aquarion divestiture, modest downward estimate revisions for 2027 EPS bases are likely over the following days, pulling the stock back from its highs even absent a headline miss - a 'sell the news' fade rather than a durable move. MEDIUM