Let me pull the Aquarion close 8-K details and the earnings call scheduling press release for more context.Now let's check FERC settlement progress and Revolution Wind news.# Eversource Energy (ES) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview Report Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026 (after market close) | Call: Friday, July 31, 2026, 9:00 a.m. ET
ES shares have had a strong run into this print, climbing from roughly $69 in early April to the mid-$70s currently (~$74.78 as of July 29), near the stock's 52-week high of $76.57. That's a notable re-rating for a name that spent much of the spring absorbing bad news (a FERC ROE cut, guidance reduction). The rally suggests the market believes the worst of the regulatory overhang is largely priced in — which raises the bar for tomorrow's print and, more importantly, management's commentary on the string of unresolved regulatory items below.
Consensus expectations: Analysts are looking for non-GAAP EPS of roughly $0.87–$0.88 (Zacks consensus $0.88, implying an 8.3% YoY decline) on revenue of approximately $3.0–$3.14 billion. For context, ES reported $0.96/share in Q2 2025. The expected year-over-year decline is not really an operating story — it's the mechanical result of two known items: the loss of Aquarion's earnings contribution following the water utility's sale, and the ~100 basis point cut to the transmission base ROE ordered by FERC in March.
Eversource posted non-GAAP EPS of $1.73 in Q1 2026 (GAAP $1.61, including a $0.12/share charge tied to the FERC ROE refund), comfortably ahead of consensus. The $0.23 per share improvement over the prior year was primarily in the Gas segment with an $0.18 per share improvement driven by rate-based increases in Massachusetts and implementation of the Yankee Gas rate case in Connecticut, while electric transmission improved $0.06 per share primarily driven by continued investment in the system. Operationally, the team delivered excellent operational performance, especially during a powerful February blizzard with over 40 inches of snow and wind gusts over 70 miles per hour, restoring power to more than 500,000 customers.
Importantly, management already cut full-year 2026 guidance on this call (following an 8-K on March 31) to $4.57–$4.72 non-GAAP EPS, down from an original $4.80–$4.95, with the change in the base ROE expected to lower Eversource's future after-tax earnings in the aggregate by approximately $70 million for 2026, together with an adjustment for the potential Aquarion sale. Management reaffirmed the long-term 5–7% EPS CAGR off the revised $4.65 midpoint, and reiterated it expects growth toward the upper half of that range by 2028.
This is arguably the single largest swing factor for the stock. FERC's March 19 decision arbitrarily reduced the base transmission ROE from 10.57% to 9.57%, a case that has been ongoing for nearly 15 years since the first complaint was filed on October 1, 2011. Eversource has fought back hard: on April 30 the company made a Section 205 filing with FERC proposing a new base ROE of 11.39% using FERC's own methodology but with current market data, along with a change to the ROE cap on transmission investments, raising the cap to 12.89%. Management expects this updated rate to be implemented towards the end of the year, subject to refund, with a settlement-judge process now underway involving all six New England states' consumer advocates and AG offices. Watch for: any update on settlement talks, timing on the new rate's implementation, and whether management has taken any additional reserve for the ~$880 million broader refund exposure (as of Q1, they had booked only the 15-month statutory refund period, $43.9M after-tax).
The long-pending sale finally closed on June 30, 2026. The total transaction purchase price was $2.4 billion cash, with adjusted net equity proceeds of approximately $1.7 billion to be used to displace Eversource debt. As flagged in advance, Eversource expects to recognize an after-tax non-cash non-recurring charge of approximately $115 million, or $0.31 per share, in the second quarter of 2026 — this will hit GAAP EPS but should be excluded from the "clean" non-GAAP number the Street is modeling. This transaction completes management's stated goal of becoming a pure-play regulated pipes and wires utility, but it also permanently removes the Water Distribution segment's earnings contribution (~$0.04/share in Q2 2025) from the base going forward — a real, structural piece of the Y/Y EPS decline, not just a one-time item.
One day before earnings, PURA issued its final decision on Eversource's multi-year storm-cost prudency review — a meaningfully negative outcome relative to what the company sought. Regulators approved $861.5 million of prudently-incurred restoration costs (versus a request that had grown to ~$1.38 billion with accrued carrying charges), of which roughly $668 million in net costs is eligible for future securitization. Critically, PURA rejected roughly $397 million in retroactive carrying charges, ruling that interest can only begin accruing after cost approval rather than from when costs were incurred. This decision does still open the door to the securitization mechanism management has been counting on for cash-flow/FFO-to-debt relief, and the company has said it will use the proceeds to pull costs out of its pending rate case, lowering the bill impact for customers — but the ~$500M haircut versus the original ask is a tangible negative that analysts will want management to address directly.
Separately, Eversource filed its first CL&P distribution rate case in nearly a decade, seeking roughly an 11% average increase (about 13% for residential customers) to address a claimed ~$503 million revenue deficiency, with new rates targeted for July 2027. As Joe Nolan noted on the Q1 call, this is the first rate review for CL&P in about 8 years and the company sees it as an opportunity to demonstrate the value of its reliability investments, but Connecticut's political environment remains adversarial — the state Attorney General has already publicly signaled intent to scrutinize the filing closely.
Governor Ayotte signed House Bill 1539, allowing for the securitization of storm costs, providing an affordable path for recovery of Eversource's outstanding storm costs currently under review at the PUC. Combined, management has guided that Eversource should recover approximately $2 billion in deferred storm costs and carrying charges through Connecticut and New Hampshire securitization transactions within the next 12 to 18 months — though the CT number just got trimmed by the PURA decision above, so watch for an updated figure.
As of the Q1 call, Revolution Wind was about 95% complete, with commercial operation still expected in the second half of this year, and the company believes the current contingent liability balance due to GIP remains appropriate. The project weathered a 2025 federal stop-work order tied to the Trump administration's offshore wind review, which was subsequently enjoined by a federal court, allowing construction to resume. Eversource retains exposure through its sale agreement with GIP, including cost-overrun sharing and an IRR guarantee to GIP — any further construction delay or cost creep is a real tail risk investors should ask about, even though Eversource no longer owns an equity stake in the project.
Management's core 2026 thesis has been strengthening the balance sheet, and the metrics have moved in the right direction: - The company's latest FFO-to-debt metrics were 14.2% and 14.5% for S&P and Moody's, respectively — each over 100 basis points above downgrade thresholds — and S&P reaffirmed its ratings and stable outlook following the FERC decision. - Eversource issued its first junior subordinated notes in February, an offering that was more than 5x oversubscribed and continues to trade at or above par. - Equity needs remain modest: guidance calls for equity issuance of $800 million to $1.1 billion between now and 2030, and with the February JSN offering bringing in $1.5 billion of cash and up to ~$2 billion of incremental storm-securitization proceeds expected, management has said there is no urgency to go to the equity market right now. - The 5-year capital plan remains $26.5 billion (2026–2030), reaffirmed at Q1, with ~$800 million spent through March versus a $5.1 billion full-year 2026 forecast — notably this excludes potential upside from Connecticut AMI (~$1 billion) still pending a PURA decision.
The stock's move from the high-$60s to the mid-$70s over the past quarter reflects growing investor comfort that the worst-case regulatory scenarios (a botched Aquarion close, an unresolved FERC dispute dragging indefinitely) are being systematically resolved, even if not always favorably. Sell-side sentiment remains split — Scotiabank has held a "sector underperform" rating (with a price target below the current stock price), while other analysts including BofA carry more constructive views; Zacks currently ranks ES a Sell (#4) heading into the print, largely on the anticipated EPS decline. Full-year consensus sits around $4.66, squarely within management's own $4.57–$4.72 guidance range.
This is a "known unknowns" quarter — the headline EPS miss/beat versus the ~$0.88 consensus matters less than management's tone on the cascade of regulatory decisions now converging: a freshly unfavorable Connecticut storm-cost ruling, an unresolved FERC transmission ROE dispute, a newly-filed and contentious CL&P rate case, and residual execution risk at Revolution Wind. The balance-sheet de-risking narrative (Aquarion cash in hand, strong FFO/debt metrics, muted equity needs) is real and supportive, but with the stock near 52-week highs, the market has given itself little room for a disappointing update on any of these fronts.