Eversource Energy (ES) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Prepared: July 29, 2026 | Earnings Release: July 30, 2026 (after market close) | Earnings Call: July 31, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup is modestly constructive — consensus is a manageable bar on operating EPS, but the quarter will carry a meaningful GAAP charge from the Aquarion sale close, and the market's focus will be on management's updated tone around the FERC ROE Section 205 process and storm cost securitization timelines.

Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for Eversource is set at $0.886 operating EPS — a seasonally soft quarter for a New England utility — with the more important story being the Aquarion Water sale close on June 30, which will generate an after-tax non-cash non-recurring charge of approximately $115 million ($0.31/share) in Q2 GAAP results; management has guided investors to focus on non-GAAP operating EPS, which excludes both this charge and the prior FERC ROE refund accrual. Management's posture on the Q1 call was confident and forward-looking — characterizing 2026 as a "transformational year" — with the FERC Section 205 filing (proposing an 11.39% base ROE) and Connecticut storm prudency decision (expected July 2026) as the two most consequential near-term catalysts. Estimate revisions have drifted modestly lower since the Q1 print (from ~$0.940 to ~$0.886 for Q2), consistent with the Aquarion charge noise and seasonal patterns, while full-year 2026 consensus of ~$4.64 operating EPS sits near the midpoint of management's $4.57–$4.72 guidance range. The stock has recovered ~9% since the May 6 earnings date, outperforming XLU, suggesting the market has already priced in the self-help narrative; at ~15.9x NTM P/E, the multiple is not demanding but leaves little room for negative regulatory surprises. The wildcard is the Connecticut storm prudency decision — if PURA issues a favorable ruling in July as expected, it unlocks ~$2 billion in combined CT/NH securitization proceeds and would be a meaningful positive catalyst; a delay or adverse outcome would be the single biggest downside risk to the near-term thesis.

KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus operating EPS of $0.886 is a low seasonal bar; the bigger swing factor is whether management updates tone on the FERC Section 205 settlement timeline and CT storm prudency outcome. Revenue consensus of ~$2.92B is modestly above the prior-year Q2 actual.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All figures in USD. Operating EPS excludes Aquarion sale loss and FERC ROE charge per management non-GAAP definition. Q2 2026 GAAP EPS will include an estimated ~$0.31/share after-tax non-cash charge from the Aquarion sale close (June 30, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters, Operating EPS & Revenue)

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. ES has beaten operating EPS consensus in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with the lone miss in Q1 2025 being narrow (-1.7%). The pattern of consistent beats on operating EPS, combined with revenue beats driven by regulatory cost recovery timing, suggests the bar is typically set conservatively.

Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance was revised downward in March 2026 following the FERC ROE decision and has not changed since; the Q1 call tone was confident and forward-looking, with management characterizing the FERC Section 205 filing and storm securitization as the key catalysts for re-accelerating growth toward the upper half of the 5–7% long-term range by 2028.

Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 operating EPS estimates have drifted lower since the Q1 print (from ~$0.940 to ~$0.886), likely reflecting Aquarion-related noise and seasonal conservatism. Full-year 2026 consensus of $4.64 sits at the midpoint of management's revised guidance range, suggesting the street is not pricing in upside from the FERC Section 205 resolution or storm securitization — both of which could be positive catalysts in H2 2026.

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. The Q2 EPS estimate drift lower (-5.7% since the Q1 print) is consistent with seasonal patterns and Aquarion-related noise rather than a fundamental deterioration in the outlook. Full-year estimates are stable, and the street is not yet pricing in upside from the FERC Section 205 resolution or storm securitization proceeds — both of which management expects to materialize in H2 2026 and 2027.

Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: ES has gained ~9% since the May 6 Q1 earnings date, outperforming XLU (+1.7%) and roughly in line with the S&P 500 (+0.9%), driven primarily by multiple expansion (P/E up ~10% over 3 months) as the self-help narrative — Aquarion close, storm securitization progress, and FERC Section 205 filing — gained credibility. The stock is not cheap at ~15.9x NTM P/E, but the multiple is not stretched relative to regulated utility peers.

ES vs. XLU vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at May 6, 2026 (Q1 2026 Earnings Date). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance since Q1 2026 earnings (May 6, 2026): ES +9.0% | XLU +1.7% | SPY +0.9%. Key events: Aquarion sale closed June 30, 2026 (with ~$0.31/share non-cash GAAP charge); FERC Section 205 filing made April 30 proposing 11.39% base ROE; CT RAM decision (April 22) authorized $100M storm reserve. The stock re-rated higher through June as the Aquarion close removed a key overhang, then consolidated in July ahead of earnings. Sector ETF used: XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund), which is the standard benchmark for regulated electric utilities.

Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The Aquarion sale close on June 30 is the most important development since Q1 earnings — it removes a multi-year overhang, delivers ~$1.7B in net proceeds to reduce debt, and confirms the balance sheet repair thesis. The FERC Section 205 settlement process is the next major catalyst.

• June 30, 2026 — Aquarion Water Sale Closed for $2.4B. Eversource completed the sale of Aquarion Water Company to the Aquarion Water Authority (a quasi-public CT entity) for $2.4B in cash. Adjusted net equity proceeds of ~$1.7B will be used to displace debt. Q2 2026 GAAP results will include an after-tax non-cash non-recurring charge of ~$115M (~$0.31/share). Management has excluded this from operating EPS guidance. Implication: Removes a multi-year regulatory and financing overhang; proceeds accelerate FFO/debt improvement and reduce equity issuance needs.
• April 30, 2026 — FERC Section 205 Filing (Proposed ROE: 11.39%). Eversource filed with FERC to establish a new base transmission ROE of 11.39% (vs. the current 9.57% reduced rate), with an ROE cap of 12.89% on transmission investments. New rate expected to be implemented toward end of 2026 on a subject-to-refund basis within ~7 months of filing. Settlement process expected to begin within 60 days of filing, with parties including consumer advocates and AG offices from all six New England states. Implication: If settled near the proposed rate, could add ~$70M+ in annual after-tax earnings vs. current guidance assumptions; management will update guidance on Q4 2026 call.
• April 22, 2026 — Connecticut RAM Decision. PURA authorized a $100M reserve for storm restoration costs and approved use of forecast data for TPA rates, lowering customer rates while improving cash flow predictability. Implication: Constructive regulatory signal from Connecticut; improves operating cash flow visibility.
• April 10, 2026 — S&P Reaffirmed Ratings and Stable Outlook. S&P reaffirmed Eversource's credit ratings and stable outlook following the FERC ROE decision, citing the company's strong FFO/debt metrics (14.2% S&P, 14.5% Moody's) and balance sheet improvement trajectory. Implication: Removes near-term downgrade risk; supports financing strategy.
• July 2026 (Expected) — Connecticut Storm Prudency Decision. PURA is expected to issue a final decision on the storm cost prudency review in July 2026. A favorable outcome would enable the legislative-backed securitization process for CT deferred storm costs. Combined CT and NH securitization proceeds of ~$2B expected within 12–18 months of the prudency decision. Implication: This is the single most important near-term catalyst; a favorable ruling would be a significant positive for the stock.
• May 2026 — CL&P Rate Case Letter of Intent Filed. Eversource filed a letter of intent with PURA for the CL&P rate case — the first rate review for Connecticut Light & Power in approximately eight years. Implication: Opens a multi-year regulatory process that could meaningfully improve Connecticut distribution earnings; management views this as an "incredible opportunity" to demonstrate reliability improvements.
• Revolution Wind ~95% Complete (as of Q1 call). Commercial operation date targeted for H2 2026. First power was expected within weeks of the February 2026 call. Implication: Completion removes the last major offshore wind overhang; contingent liability unchanged from Q3 2025.
• July 29, 2026 — Sector Peers Reporting Q2 2026 Results. WEC Energy, Entergy, and FirstEnergy all reported Q2 2026 results on July 28–29, with all three reaffirming full-year guidance and citing strong load growth from data centers and industrial customers. Implication: Positive read-through for sector sentiment heading into ES's print.

Peer Commentary & Q2 2026 Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 peer earnings calls (July 22–29) delivered a uniformly constructive message for regulated utilities: load growth is accelerating (data centers + industrial), all major peers reaffirmed full-year guidance, and storm cost management is a shared focus. The read-through for ES is broadly positive — particularly on load growth validation and the sector-wide trend of constructive regulatory outcomes for large load tariffs. The FERC ROE issue is ES-specific and not a sector-wide headwind.

Note: All commentary below is from Q2 2026 earnings calls and releases (July 22–29, 2026), addressing the current Q2 2026 reporting period or forward outlook. No prior-quarter commentary is included.

1. Load Growth & Data Center Demand — Broad Sector Validation

The most consistent theme across Q2 2026 peer calls was accelerating power demand from data centers and industrial customers — directly validating ES's investment thesis in its high-growth New England service territory.

• NextEra Energy (NEE, reported July 24): "Power demand continues to accelerate." FPL increased its large load forecast from 6 GW to 8 GW by 2032 and has "roughly 21 GW of large load interest" in its pipeline. NEE beat Q2 EPS estimates ($1.15 vs. $1.11 consensus) and is targeting the high end of its $3.92–$4.02 FY 2026 guidance range. ES Read-Through: Validates the secular demand tailwind for New England utilities; ES management has noted 2% weather-normalized load growth and is actively managing data center interconnection requests.
• FirstEnergy (FE, reported July 28): "Total forecasted data center demand has increased 30% since the first quarter to approximately 25 GW, and during the second quarter alone, we contracted an additional 2.1 GW, bringing our total contracted demand to 6.4 GW." Total weather-adjusted customer load increased ~2% in Q2. Reaffirmed FY 2026 core EPS guidance of $2.62–$2.82 and long-term growth near the top end of 6–8% through 2030. ES Read-Through: 2% weather-adjusted load growth is consistent with what ES has reported; the data center demand surge is a sector-wide tailwind.
• DTE Energy (DTE, reported July 28): The 1.4 GW Oracle data center is "fully approved and under construction"; executed a 1 GW agreement with Google; pipeline of 5–6 GW of additional opportunities. "On track to reach the high end of our operating EPS guidance this year." ES Read-Through: Large load contracting momentum is real and accelerating; ES's opposition to data center additions (citing affordability concerns) is a differentiated stance that could be revisited if load growth benefits to existing customers become clearer.
• WEC Energy (WEC, reported July 29): Total weather-normal retail electric sales grew 4.2% in Q2, driven by large customers. Preparing to serve a "forecasted demand increase of 2.6 GW in this region through 2030" for Microsoft. Reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of $5.51–$5.61/share and projects 7–8% long-term EPS growth. ES Read-Through: Strong load growth is translating into earnings support across the sector; ES's 5–7% growth target looks conservative relative to peers with similar load tailwinds.
• Entergy (ETR, reported July 29): Pipeline of "7 to 12 GW of hyperscale data center potential" plus 3–5 GW of traditional industrial interest. Q2 industrial sales grew 10%. "Firmly on track to meet our 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and longer-term outlooks." ES Read-Through: Industrial load growth is broad-based and not just data centers; validates the investment case for grid hardening and transmission expansion.
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP, reported July 28): Submitted "more than 17 GW of large load projects" into the ERCOT process; estimates large load customers will save existing customers "over $5 billion over the next decade." Reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of $1.89–$1.91 and long-term growth at the mid-to-high end of 7–9% through 2028. ES Read-Through: The affordability argument for large load tariffs (new customers subsidize existing customers) is gaining regulatory traction across the sector — relevant for ES's CL&P rate case strategy.

2. Regulatory Outcomes & Rate Case Activity — Constructive Sector Backdrop

• Duke Energy (DUK, July 17 8-K): Reached a comprehensive rate settlement with North Carolina regulators, cutting the proposed residential rate increase from ~18% to ~9.5% (5.9% in Year 1, 3.6% in Year 2). Settlement requires DUK shareholders to contribute $10M to low-income assistance. ES Read-Through: Constructive regulatory outcomes are achievable even in politically sensitive environments; the affordability-focused settlement structure is a model ES may reference in its CL&P rate case.
• CMS Energy (CMS, reported July 28): Filed an electric rate case in June requesting a "$456 million revenue increase, a 10.25% ROE and a 51.75% equity ratio." Reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of $3.83–$3.90/share with "continued confidence toward the high end." Forecasted 2027 adjusted EPS of $4.08–$4.17 (midpoint slightly below consensus). ES Read-Through: 10.25% ROE request in a rate case is consistent with the range ES is seeking in its FERC Section 205 filing (11.39%); constructive regulatory environment for ROE recovery.
• PG&E (PCG, reported July 22–23): Beat Q2 EPS estimates (40 cents vs. 36 cents consensus) driven by higher rates and data center demand. Data center pipeline grew to "over 12 GW" in Q2. S&P upgraded PCG's rating, placing it "just one notch below investment grade." Filed for "interim rate recovery effective January 2027" to prevent a customer rate spike. ES Read-Through: Credit rating upgrades driven by operational execution and wildfire risk reduction are analogous to ES's credit improvement story driven by storm cost recovery and balance sheet repair.
• American Water Works (AWK, reported July 29): PaPUC issued a decision on the Pennsylvania American Water rate case (July 16 8-K). AWK reported Q2 2026 results on July 29. ES Read-Through: Directly relevant as the acquirer of Aquarion Water; AWK's continued regulatory engagement confirms the water utility sector remains constructive, validating ES's decision to exit at a favorable price.

3. Storm Costs & Grid Reliability — Shared Sector Challenge

• CMS Energy (Q2 2026 call): "So far this year, the primary headwind has been the impact of storms," driving an unfavorable O&M variance of $0.19. CMS is pursuing a "pending storm referral filed with the commission" to offset costs. ES Read-Through: Storm costs are a sector-wide challenge; ES's pending CT storm prudency decision (expected July 2026) is the key mechanism for recovery. CMS's approach of filing for regulatory recovery is consistent with ES's strategy.
• DTE Energy (Q2 2026 call): A "severe, fast moving storm" in early July impacted "nearly 400,000 customers." Notably, "areas where we have completed substantial reliability investments performed significantly better, reinforcing the value of continued grid investment." ES Read-Through: Validates ES's capital investment thesis — grid hardening reduces storm restoration costs and supports the regulatory case for continued CapEx.
• Entergy (Q2 2026 call): Experienced "two minor tropical storms" with "nominal" costs. Investing in resilience including reinforcing poles to withstand "150 mph" winds and deploying a "Self-Healing Network program" that has "avoided more than 700,000 customer interruptions." ES Read-Through: Technology-driven reliability improvements are becoming a sector standard; ES's top-decile reliability performance is a competitive advantage in regulatory proceedings.

4. Capital Plans & Financing — Sector-Wide Investment Acceleration

• Sector-Wide CapEx Reaffirmation: All major peers reaffirmed multi-billion dollar 5-year capital plans: FE ($36B), WEC ($37.5B), CNP ($66.7B through 2035), CMS ($24B), PCG ($73B through 2030). ES's $26.5B plan through 2030 is proportionally consistent with the sector. ES Read-Through: Capital markets are supportive of large utility CapEx programs; ES's financing strategy (junior subordinated notes, potential minority interest structures, storm securitization) is well-positioned.
• Equity Issuance Approaches Vary: PCG and CNP both noted their capital plans "do not require additional equity financing"; DTE is targeting $500–$600M annual equity issuances; WEC expects ~$1.1B of common equity in 2026. ES's $800M–$1.1B equity need over 5 years is modest relative to peers. ES Read-Through: ES's equity needs are manageable and partially offset by storm securitization proceeds; the "no urgency" messaging from Q1 is consistent with the sector trend of utilities finding alternative financing solutions.
• FFO/Debt Targets: DTE targets ~15% FFO/debt; ETR targets FFO/debt "at or above 15%" throughout the outlook period. ES's Q1 2026 FFO/debt of 14.2% (S&P) and 14.5% (Moody's) is slightly below these peers but above downgrade thresholds. ES Read-Through: ES's credit metrics are improving but still trail best-in-class peers; storm securitization proceeds are the key mechanism to close the gap.

Key Risks & Earnings Questions

Key Risks

• Connecticut Storm Prudency Decision Delay or Adverse Outcome. A PURA ruling that disallows a material portion of deferred storm costs would reduce the expected ~$2B securitization proceeds and delay the FFO/debt improvement trajectory. This is the single largest binary risk heading into the print.
• FERC Section 205 Settlement Risk. If the settlement process results in a prospective ROE materially below the proposed 11.39% (e.g., closer to the current 9.57%), the earnings uplift from the Section 205 filing would be limited. Management has indicated willingness to reduce transmission CapEx if the ROE environment remains unfavorable.
• Connecticut Regulatory Environment. The CL&P rate case is the first in ~8 years; an adverse outcome or prolonged process could delay the earnings inflection management is targeting by 2028. PURA's track record has been mixed, though the tone has improved with new commissioners.
• Equity Issuance Timing. While management has stated "no urgency" to issue equity, the $800M–$1.1B equity need over 5 years remains. If storm securitization proceeds are delayed, equity issuance could come sooner than expected and be dilutive.
• Revolution Wind Contingent Liability. The contingent liability related to the offshore wind exit has been unchanged since Q3 2025. Any adverse development in the final cost settlement could result in an unexpected charge.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity. As a capital-intensive regulated utility with significant debt, ES is sensitive to interest rate movements. Higher-for-longer rates increase financing costs and compress the dividend yield spread that supports utility valuations.

Key Questions for the Earnings Call

1. Connecticut Storm Prudency Decision: Has PURA issued the storm prudency decision? What is the timeline for the CT securitization filing, and what is the expected recovery amount?
2. FERC Section 205 Update: Has the settlement judge been appointed? What is management's current expectation for the prospective ROE and implementation timeline? Any update to the Q4 2026 guidance revision timeline?
3. Aquarion Proceeds Deployment: How are the ~$1.7B net proceeds being deployed? What is the expected impact on FFO/debt metrics in H2 2026?
4. CL&P Rate Case Progress: What is the status of the CL&P rate case following the letter of intent filing? What is the expected timeline for a final decision, and what ROE and equity ratio is ES requesting?
5. Load Growth in New England: What is the current weather-normalized load growth rate in Q2? Has ES seen any change in data center interconnection requests, and has management's stance on large load additions evolved?
6. Revolution Wind Final Close: Has commercial operation been achieved? What is the status of the contingent liability, and is there any update to the expected final cost settlement?
7. Equity Financing Update: Given the Aquarion proceeds and storm securitization progress, has the $800M–$1.1B equity need over 5 years changed? Is management still evaluating minority interest or minority-like capital structures?