ESS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ESS Report Q2 Core FFO / share BEAT pred ~$4.03 vs. cons $3.99 MEDIUM
ESS Report Q2 Same-property revenue growth (YoY) BEAT pred ~+3.0% vs. cons ~+2.6% MEDIUM
ESS Report Q2 Same-property NOI growth (YoY) BEAT pred ~+3.6% vs. cons ~+2.8% MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 Core FFO guide (midpoint) BETTER guide ~$16.05 vs. cons $15.94 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 same-property revenue growth guide BETTER guide ~+2.6% vs. prior/cons +2.4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 same-property NOI growth guide BETTER guide ~+2.5% vs. prior/cons +2.1% (FY2026) LOW
ESS Guide Peak-season blended lease rate (Q2/Q3) BETTER pred blend ~+3.5% vs. FY implied ~+2.5% (Q2/Q3) MEDIUM
ESS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
ESS Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.3% (STABILIZE) A modest beat plus a small revenue/FFO guide raise supports a positive day-1 pop, but ESS is near all-time highs at a sub-6% implied cap with expectations already elevated, capping upside. Out-period math tempers follow-through: guided H2 controllable-opex reversal (~$0.04 timing from Q1) and the ~$0.07 structured-finance redemption headwind mean the raise is largely front-half-driven, so forward FFO revisions rise only marginally. Net: day-1 gains hold rather than extend — stabilize, with fade risk if the revenue guide is merely reaffirmed or capital allocation (paused buyback) disappoints. LOW