ESS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ESS Report Q2 2026 Core FFO per diluted share BEAT pred ~$4.03 vs. cons $3.98 MEDIUM
ESS Report Q2 2026 Same-Property Revenue Growth (YoY%) BEAT pred ~3.2% vs. cons 2.7% MEDIUM
ESS Report Q2 2026 Same-Property NOI Growth (YoY%) BEAT pred ~3.6% vs. cons 3.0% MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 Core FFO per diluted share guidance (midpoint) BETTER guide ~$16.07 vs. cons $15.96 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 Same-Property Revenue Growth guidance (midpoint) BETTER guide ~2.70% vs. cons 2.45% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 Same-Property NOI Growth guidance (midpoint) BETTER guide ~2.60% vs. cons 2.20% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Guide Q3 2026 Core FFO per diluted share guidance BETTER guide ~$4.06 vs. cons $4.02 (Q3 2026) LOW
ESS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +0.6% MEDIUM
ESS Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.4% (FADE) Beat-and-raise is largely pre-signaled by the accelerating blended lease disclosures (1.4%→3.1%→3.7%) already shared at REITweek, so the incremental information content is modest and mostly known to sophisticated holders; sector precedent (UDR beat/raised yet sold off) shows execution alone isn't enough once expectations are elevated after ESS's ~15% run since Q1. Out-period math is only mildly supportive: the raise mostly reflects known H1 strength plus the pulled-forward $90M redemption being a non-recurring FFO drag that's now behind, not a structural re-rating of 2027 NOI growth, while LA/Seattle still need to prove sustained inflection. Expect the initial pop to partially fade over the week as sell-side nudges 2026 numbers up modestly but leaves 2027 estimates largely unchanged, capping follow-through. MEDIUM