{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Core FFO per diluted share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$4.03 vs. cons $3.98",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Same-Property Revenue Growth (YoY%)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~3.2% vs. cons 2.7%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Same-Property NOI Growth (YoY%)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~3.6% vs. cons 3.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Core FFO per diluted share guidance (midpoint)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$16.07 vs. cons $15.96 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Property Revenue Growth guidance (midpoint)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.70% vs. cons 2.45% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Property NOI Growth guidance (midpoint)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~2.60% vs. cons 2.20% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 Core FFO per diluted share guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.06 vs. cons $4.02 (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 0.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Beat-and-raise is largely pre-signaled by the accelerating blended lease disclosures (1.4%\u21923.1%\u21923.7%) already shared at REITweek, so the incremental information content is modest and mostly known to sophisticated holders; sector precedent (UDR beat/raised yet sold off) shows execution alone isn't enough once expectations are elevated after ESS's ~15% run since Q1. Out-period math is only mildly supportive: the raise mostly reflects known H1 strength plus the pulled-forward $90M redemption being a non-recurring FFO drag that's now behind, not a structural re-rating of 2027 NOI growth, while LA/Seattle still need to prove sustained inflection. Expect the initial pop to partially fade over the week as sell-side nudges 2026 numbers up modestly but leaves 2027 estimates largely unchanged, capping follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}