ESS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ESS Report Core FFO per diluted share IN-LINE pred ~$4.04 vs. cons $4.08 MEDIUM
ESS Report Same-property revenue growth BEAT pred ~3.8% vs. cons 3.1% MEDIUM
ESS Report Same-property NOI growth BEAT pred ~4.6% vs. cons 3.4% MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 Core FFO per diluted share LOWER guide ~$15.94 vs. cons $16.06 (FY2026) HIGH
ESS Guide FY2026 same-property revenue growth BETTER guide ~2.8% vs. cons 2.7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY2026 same-property NOI growth BETTER guide ~2.6% vs. cons 2.4% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ESS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
ESS Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.7% (FADE) Day-1 residual ~+1.8% versus a beta-adjusted S&P 500 move of ~0.0%, driven by better ~3.8% same-property revenue growth versus ~3.1% consensus and ~4.6% NOI growth versus ~3.4%. The 5-day residual fades to ~-0.7% versus ~0.0% beta-adjusted market impact because FY2026 Core FFO guidance remains ~$15.94 versus ~$16.06 consensus, leaving second-half and out-period FFO math below the Street despite an operating-guide improvement. MEDIUM