ESS Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ESS Report Blended Lease Rate Growth (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~3.5% vs. cons ~3.06% (VA, Jul 28) HIGH
ESS Report Same-Store NOI Growth YoY (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~2.8% vs. cons ~2.27% (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ESS Report Core FFO/share (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$4.06 vs. cons $4.04 (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY 2026 Core FFO/share (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide mid ~$16.05 vs. cons $16.11 (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ESS Guide FY 2026 SS Revenue Growth (FY 2026) BETTER guide mid ~3.0% vs. cons 2.70% (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ESS Guide Q3 2026 Core FFO/share (Q3 2026) UNCHANGED guide mid ~$4.04 vs. cons ~$4.03 (VA, Jul 28) MEDIUM
ESS Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
ESS Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FADE) FADE — H2 implied cut pulls estimates lower post-print; SS revenue raise limits the damage but does not reverse it MEDIUM