Entergy Corporation (ETR) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

Entergy Corporation (ETR)

Upcoming Earnings Date

July 29, 2026 — 11:00 AM ET (2Q26 Earnings Call)

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (April 1 – June 30, 2026)

Preparation Date

July 28, 2026

Sector ETF Benchmark

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR)

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: The setup into Q2 2026 is modestly constructive but not a high bar — consensus EPS of ~$1.03 sits below the prior-year comparable ($1.05 actual in Q2 2025) and management pre-flagged a ~$0.15 headwind from higher O&M (vegetation spending and nuclear maintenance timing), making the bar achievable but not easy; the single biggest swing factor is whether industrial/data-center load growth continues to track the 15–16% pace seen in Q1.

Heading into Q2 2026, Entergy’s setup is defined by a manageable but not trivial cost headwind that management itself telegraphed on the Q1 call — other O&M is expected to be approximately $0.15 higher year-over-year, driven by higher vegetation spending and the timing of nuclear maintenance. Against that backdrop, consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.03 represents a modest step down from Q1’s $0.86 beat and the prior-year Q2 actual of ~$1.05, leaving the bar achievable if industrial load continues its strong trajectory. Management’s tone has shifted decisively more confident since last earnings: the Q1 call featured a $14 billion capital plan expansion (to $57 billion total), a raised retail sales CAGR to 8.5% through 2029, and a 2027 EPS outlook lifted by $0.20 — all of which were reaffirmed and extended at the June 9 Investor Day, where management guided to greater than 8% EPS growth through at least 2035. Estimate revisions have been broadly stable-to-slightly-lower since the Q1 print (July consensus of ~$1.03 vs. ~$1.10 at the post-Q1 baseline), suggesting the street has absorbed the O&M warning without panic. The stock has traded roughly flat since the April 29 earnings date (ETR ~$112 vs. ~$115 at print), underperforming XLU modestly, which implies the market has not yet priced in a beat and leaves room for a positive reaction if industrial volumes surprise to the upside. The key wildcard is the pace of data-center load ramp: any commentary on new ESA signings, pipeline conversion, or the LPSC procedural schedule for the Meta/North Louisiana filing could move the stock more than the EPS number itself.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a manageable bar on EPS (~$1.03 vs. ~$1.05 prior-year actual) with the O&M headwind already known; industrial volume is the bigger swing factor — a continuation of Q1’s 15% growth pace would be a clear positive signal for the data-center thesis.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (2Q 2026)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual (Last Quarter)

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

Guidance

Consensus vs. Guidance

Adjusted EPS (Diluted excl. one-time charges)

$0.86

$1.05

$1.03

-1.9% YoY

FY2026 guidance affirmed; Q2 O&M ~$0.15 higher YoY flagged

N/A — no explicit Q2 EPS guidance midpoint provided

Total Revenue

$3.19B

$3.33B

$3.45B

+3.6% YoY

No explicit Q2 revenue guidance

N/A

Industrial Volume — Utilities (GWh)

15,895 GWh

15,620 GWh

15,621 GWh

+0.0% YoY (consensus)

~16% industrial growth CAGR through 2029 (FY guidance)

N/A — no explicit Q2 volume guidance midpoint

Capital Additions

$2.25B

$2.01B

$3.29B

+63.7% YoY

$57B 4-year capital plan; ~$12.4B FY2026 consensus

N/A — no explicit Q2 CapEx guidance midpoint

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data (EPS, Revenue, Industrial Volume, Capital Additions). Q1 2026 EPS actual of $0.86 per ETR Q1 2026 earnings call transcript. FY2026 guidance affirmed on Q1 2026 earnings call; Q2 O&M headwind of ~$0.15 flagged by management on Q1 2026 call.

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Panel A: Adjusted EPS (Diluted excl. one-time charges)

Quarter

Reported

Consensus

Surprise %

Result

Q2 2024

$1.05

$0.88

+19.3%

Beat

Q3 2024

$1.50

$1.53

-2.0%

Miss

Q4 2024

$0.66

$0.65

+1.5%

Beat

Q1 2025

$0.82

$0.68

+20.6%

Beat

Q2 2025

$1.05

$0.88

+19.3%

Beat

Q3 2025

$1.53

$1.44

+6.2%

Beat

Q4 2025

$0.51

$0.57

-10.5%

Miss

Q1 2026

$0.86

$0.87

-1.1%

Slight Miss

Pattern: ETR has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 5 of the last 8 quarters, with particularly large beats in Q1 2025 (+20.6%) and Q2 2025 (+19.3%) driven by strong industrial load growth. The two misses (Q3 2024 and Q4 2025) were modest and weather/timing-related. Q1 2026 was a slight miss (-1.1%), consistent with management’s pre-flagged O&M headwinds. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

Panel B: Industrial Volume — Utilities (GWh)

Quarter

Reported (GWh)

Consensus (GWh)

Surprise %

Result

Q2 2024

15,620

14,084

+10.9%

Beat

Q3 2024

15,150

14,181

+6.8%

Beat

Q4 2024

14,906

N/A — consensus not available

N/A

N/A

Q1 2025

13,833

13,491

+2.5%

Beat

Q2 2025

15,620

14,084

+10.9%

Beat

Q3 2025

16,255

16,018

+1.5%

Beat

Q4 2025

15,175

16,324

-7.0%

Miss

Q1 2026

15,895

14,248

+11.5%

Beat

Pattern: Industrial volume has beaten consensus in 6 of the 7 quarters where data is available, with beats consistently in the +2% to +11% range — a strong signal that the data-center and industrial load ramp is tracking ahead of sell-side models. The Q4 2025 miss (-7.0%) was an outlier likely driven by weather and timing. Q1 2026’s +11.5% beat reinforces the structural demand story. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Guidance has moved materially higher since last earnings — the Q1 2026 call featured a $14B capital plan expansion and raised multi-year EPS outlook, both reaffirmed and extended at the June 9 Investor Day; management tone is the most confident it has been in years, with the phrase “unmatched in the industry” used repeatedly.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call — Apr 29, 2026)

Revised Guidance (Post-Earnings Event)

Current Consensus

Note

FY2026 Adjusted EPS

Affirmed existing guidance range; “firmly on track”

Reaffirmed at June 9 Investor Day; no numerical change

$4.40 (VA consensus)

Tone: highly confident. Investor Day language: “greater than 8% growth… unmatched in the industry”

FY2027 Adjusted EPS Outlook

Raised by $0.20 vs. prior outlook, driven by Meta ESA and expanded capital plan

Reaffirmed at June 9 Investor Day; extended growth visibility to 2035

$5.15 (VA consensus)

↑ Raised at Q1 2026 earnings call (Apr 29, 2026); further extended at Investor Day (Jun 9, 2026)

FY2029 Adjusted EPS Outlook

Raised by $0.50 to $6.40; 2028–2029 YoY growth of ~12%

Reaffirmed at Investor Day; 2030 YoY growth expected similar to 2029 (~12%)

N/A — beyond VA consensus horizon

↑ Raised at Q1 2026 earnings call; Investor Day extended visibility to 2035 at >8% CAGR

Retail Sales Growth CAGR (through 2029)

~8.5% CAGR; 16% industrial growth

Raised to 9% at June 9 Investor Day

N/A

↑ Raised at Investor Day (Jun 9, 2026); “unmatched in the industry and twice what we had just 2 years ago”

4-Year Capital Plan

$57B (raised from $43B; +$14B driven by Meta North Louisiana ESA — 7 new CCCTs)

5-year plan raised to $67B at June 9 Investor Day

$12.4B FY2026 CapEx consensus

↑ Raised at Q1 2026 earnings call; further raised at Investor Day to $67B 5-year plan

Q2 2026 Other O&M

~$0.15 higher YoY (vegetation spending + nuclear maintenance timing)

No change

N/A

Known headwind; already embedded in consensus

Equity Needs (4-year plan)

$6.6B total; ~30% contracted via forwards (~$1.9B); $4.7B remaining needed late 2027–2029

~60% of equity needs sourced after May 2026 block deal ($19.2M shares at $110.74/share forward price; settled June 22, 2026 for ~$672M)

N/A

Effective date of block deal: May 5, 2026; partial settlement effective June 22, 2026 (8-K filed June 23, 2026). Remaining ~$915M of underwritten forwards outstanding.

FFO/Debt Target

≥15% (Moody’s basis) throughout plan period

Reaffirmed at Investor Day; “highest FFO to debt on a Moody’s basis in the industry” in 2025

N/A

Unchanged; credit-neutral structure of Meta agreement highlighted as key differentiator

Sources: ETR Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (Apr 29, 2026); ETR Investor Day Transcript (Jun 9, 2026); ETR 8-K filed Jun 23, 2026 (equity forward settlements); ETR 8-K filed May 7, 2026 (new underwritten forward sale agreements).

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q2 2026 EPS have drifted slightly lower since the Q1 print (from ~$1.10 to ~$1.03), consistent with the O&M warning, while FY2026 and FY2027 estimates have been broadly stable-to-slightly-lower — the gap between guidance (raised) and estimates (flat-to-lower) represents a potential cushion if industrial load continues to outperform.

KPI / Period

Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of May 6, 2026)

Current Consensus (Jul 28, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

Adj. EPS — Q2 2026

$1.10

$1.03

-6.4%

No explicit Q2 guidance; O&M ~$0.15 higher YoY flagged

Unchanged

N/A

N/A

Adj. EPS — FY2026

$4.40

$4.40

0.0%

Affirmed; “firmly on track”

Reaffirmed at Investor Day (Jun 9)

Unchanged

N/A — no explicit numerical midpoint

Adj. EPS — FY2027

$5.08

$5.15

+1.4%

Raised by $0.20 at Q1 call; 2027 outlook now $0.20 higher

Reaffirmed at Investor Day; >8% CAGR through 2030

↑ Raised

N/A — no explicit numerical midpoint

Total Revenue — Q2 2026

$3.49B

$3.45B

-1.1%

No explicit Q2 guidance

Unchanged

N/A

N/A

Total Revenue — FY2026

$13.98B

$13.98B

0.0%

No explicit FY revenue guidance

Unchanged

N/A

N/A

Industrial Volume — Q2 2026 (GWh)

15,627

15,621

-0.04%

~16% industrial growth CAGR through 2029

Raised to 9% retail CAGR at Investor Day

↑ Raised

N/A — no explicit Q2 volume guidance midpoint

The Q2 2026 EPS estimate has drifted ~6% lower since the post-Q1 baseline, entirely consistent with the O&M headwind management pre-flagged. FY2026 and FY2027 estimates are stable-to-slightly-higher, suggesting the street has absorbed the capital plan expansion positively. The divergence between raised guidance (retail CAGR now 9%, capital plan now $67B 5-year) and flat-to-lower near-term estimates creates a potential cushion if industrial load outperforms. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: ETR has underperformed XLU modestly since the Q1 2026 earnings date (ETR -2.1% vs. XLU -0.4% indexed), suggesting the market has not priced in a beat — the 12-month +27% gain was driven roughly equally by multiple expansion (+15% on P/E) and earnings growth, but the 1-month and 3-month periods show slight multiple compression, indicating the stock is consolidating rather than pricing in further upside.

ETR vs. XLU vs. S&P 500 — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings Date (Apr 29, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.

Performance Summary (indexed to 100 at Apr 29, 2026 close of $114.67):

Series

Price at Apr 29

Price at Jul 28, 2026

Return Since Earnings

ETR

$114.67

$113.76

-0.8%

XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR)

$45.68

$45.68

0.0%

S&P 500 (SPY)

$711.58

$739.09

+3.9%

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings (marked on chart):

Valuation Context: NTM P/E of 23.5x vs. ~21x sector average; NTM EV/EBITDA of 11.9x. The 12-month +27% gain was driven by both multiple expansion (+15% on P/E) and earnings growth. Near-term (1M, 3M) multiple compression of ~3–4% on P/E suggests the stock is consolidating. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance); Valuation multiples from ETR Stock Performance Decomposition.

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the June 9 Investor Day, which extended the growth runway to 2035 and raised the 5-year capital plan to $67B — the implication for the print is that management will likely use Q2 to provide an update on LPSC procedural progress for the Meta filing and any new ESA signings from the 7–12 GW pipeline.

7. Peer Commentaries — Q2 2026 Current-Quarter Read-Throughs

Key Takeaway: Peers reporting Q2 2026 results this week (CMS, CNP, DTE, NEE, PCG) collectively confirm that data-center demand is accelerating, large-load tariff frameworks are gaining traction, and utilities with constructive regulatory relationships are best positioned — all direct positives for ETR’s Q2 print and forward narrative. The one caution: weather was a modest headwind for several peers in Q2, which could weigh on ETR’s residential/commercial volumes.

Note: All commentary below is from peers’ Q2 2026 earnings calls (reported July 22–28, 2026) or post-Q1 2026 events explicitly addressing the current reporting quarter or forward outlook. Prior-quarter result commentary is excluded.

GE Vernova (GEV) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22, 2026)

Relevance to ETR: Direct — GEV is ETR’s primary gas turbine supplier for the $57B capital plan.

NextEra Energy (NEE) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 24, 2026)

Relevance to ETR: Thematic — NEE is the largest US utility and a bellwether for large-load demand and regulatory frameworks.

PG&E (PCG) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 22–23, 2026)

Relevance to ETR: Thematic — PCG is a large regulated utility with a major data center pipeline; its experience with large-load tariffs and regulatory frameworks is instructive for ETR.

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 28, 2026)

Relevance to ETR: Direct — CNP serves the Houston/Texas market and is experiencing similar large-load growth dynamics; its ERCOT batch zero process is a read-through for MISO interconnection timelines.

DTE Energy (DTE) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 28, 2026)

Relevance to ETR: Thematic — DTE is executing a similar large-load strategy (Oracle 1.4 GW, Google 1 GW) and provides a read-through on data center contract structures and regulatory mechanisms.

CMS Energy (CMS) — Q2 2026 Earnings (July 28, 2026)

Relevance to ETR: Thematic — CMS provides a read-through on weather impacts, large-load tariff frameworks, and the strategic decision to exit non-utility renewables.

Peer Read-Through Summary

Theme

Peer Signal

ETR Implication

Direction

Data center demand acceleration

NEE +2 GW to 8 GW by 2032; PCG >12 GW pipeline; CNP 14 GW batch zero; DTE 5–6 GW additional; GEV orders >doubled

ETR’s 7–12 GW pipeline is credible and potentially conservative

Positive

Large-load tariff frameworks gaining traction

CMS, DTE, PCG all implementing cost-of-service tariffs for large loads; FERC show cause order supportive

ETR’s Fair Share Plus is ahead of peers; regulatory risk is lower than feared

Positive

Equipment supply confirmed

GEV mostly sold out through 2030; ramping to 20 GW/year output; prices up >20% YoY

ETR’s early equipment procurement is a cost and timing advantage; validates capital plan execution

Positive

Q2 weather headwind

CMS -$0.08 YTD weather variance; CNP -$0.01 weather in Texas/Indiana; DTE weather headwinds in both electric and gas

ETR’s Texas service territory likely faced similar mild weather; residential/commercial volumes may disappoint

Negative

Capital plan upside without equity dilution

CNP +$1.2B with no new equity; PCG $73B plan with no additional equity; DTE equity plan unchanged

ETR’s credit-neutral Meta structure and ~60% equity pre-funded are consistent with sector best practice

Positive

CMS 2027 guidance miss

CMS 2027 EPS midpoint $4.13 vs. $4.17 consensus; stock likely to underperform

Potential sector sentiment headwind; ETR’s much stronger growth profile should differentiate

Mixed

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: Only two insider transactions since Q1 earnings — both are 10b5-1 planned sales by senior executives, which are pre-scheduled and not discretionary signals. No open-market buys or unusual discretionary sales; nothing notable from an insider signaling perspective.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Transaction Date

Filing Date

Note

Kimberly Cook-Nelson

EVP & Chief Operating Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

5,000 shares

June 25, 2026

June 26, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan sale; 30,770 shares remaining after transaction. Not a discretionary signal.

Haley Fisackerly

Officer (Sec. 16 Rules)

10b5-1 Planned Sale

10,638 shares

June 3, 2026

June 5, 2026

Pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan sale; 14,182 shares remaining after transaction. Not a discretionary signal.

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data). Transaction dates are the actual execution dates; filing dates are the SEC disclosure dates. Both transactions are coded as 10b5-1 planned sales (pre-scheduled, not discretionary). No open-market purchases or discretionary sales were filed in the period since Q1 2026 earnings (April 29, 2026) through July 28, 2026.

9. Key Risks & Questions for the Call

Key Risks

Key Questions for the Call

  1. Industrial load update: What was the Q2 2026 industrial sales growth rate (YoY)? Did it track the 15–16% pace seen in Q1, and what is the trajectory for H2 2026?
  2. LPSC procedural update: What is the current status of the LPSC procedural schedule for the Meta/North Louisiana filing? Is the December B&E meeting decision timeline still on track?
  3. New ESA signings: Have any additional ESAs been signed since the Investor Day (June 9)? How has the 7–12 GW pipeline evolved?
  4. O&M actuals vs. guidance: Did other O&M come in at the ~$0.15 higher YoY level flagged on the Q1 call, or was there any upside/downside surprise?
  5. Equity forward settlement plan: What is the expected timing for settling the remaining ~11.15M shares of underwritten forwards (~$915M)? Any update on ATM program activity?
  6. Orange County Advanced Power Station: Management guided for the plant to be “fully online in late summer” on the Q1 call. Is it on track? What is the expected contribution to Q3 results?
  7. CCS/Mitsubishi MOU progress: The Investor Day announced a CCS MOU with Mitsubishi with a goal of having a “clear plan and road map by end of year.” What progress has been made?
  8. Weather impact in Q2: How did weather compare to normal and prior year in Q2? What was the net EPS impact?
  9. Arkansas rate case: What is the status of the Entergy Arkansas base rate case (filed February 2026, requesting ~$45M)? Any update on timeline?
  10. 2030 EPS growth visibility: Management guided at the Investor Day for ~12% YoY EPS growth in 2030 (similar to 2029). Is this still the expectation, and what are the key assumptions?