EXC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EXC Report Q2 adj. operating EPS IN-LINE pred ~$0.44 vs. cons $0.43 MEDIUM
EXC Report H2 E EPS run-rate (seasonal glidepath) IN-LINE pred ~$1.35 (~47% of FY) vs. cons ~$1.34 MEDIUM
EXC Report Total operating revenue IN-LINE pred ~$5.6B vs. cons ~$5.5B LOW
EXC Guide FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance UNCHANGED guide $2.81–$2.91 (mid $2.86) vs. cons ~$2.86 (FY2026) HIGH
EXC Guide Long-term adjusted EPS CAGR UNCHANGED guide top-half of 5–7% (~6.5%) vs. cons ~6% (2025–2029) HIGH
EXC Guide Capital plan / rate-base CAGR UNCHANGED guide $41.7B plan, ~7.9% rate-base CAGR vs. cons ~$41.7B/~7.9% (2026–2029) MEDIUM
EXC Guide Pennsylvania (PECO) rate-case refiling / ROE-equity-layer risk UNKNOWN guide refiling timing TBD, ROE risk vs. cons ~9.5% ROE assumed (2026–2027) LOW
EXC Guide Maryland Pepco base-rate order UNKNOWN guide on $119.9M request, order due Aug vs. cons partial award ~$70–90M (2026Q3) LOW
EXC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.6% MEDIUM
EXC Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.8% (STABILIZE) Seasonally tiny quarter with an in-line EPS and a clean reaffirmation of FY26 $2.81–$2.91 leaves out-period estimates essentially unchanged — no revision engine either way. Low-beta, decoupling-heavy name trades on the PA/MD affordability-regulatory narrative, not the print; residual drift is modest and mean-reverting. Mild negative skew from PA (PECO ROE/equity-layer and credit) and any soft Pepco MD signal caps upside, so the small day-1 dip largely holds rather than compounds — stabilize near flat. MEDIUM