EXC Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
EXC Report Q2 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating EPS IN-LINE pred ~$0.44 vs. cons ~$0.44 MEDIUM
EXC Report Q2 Total Revenue MISS pred ~$5.65B vs. cons ~$5.72B LOW
EXC Report FFO-to-Debt / Credit Metric (annualized run-rate) MISS pred ~13.5% vs. cons/target ~14.0% MEDIUM
EXC Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance Range UNCHANGED guide ~$2.81-$2.91 (midpoint $2.86) vs. cons $2.85 (FY2026) HIGH
EXC Guide Long-term EPS Growth Algorithm (Rate Base CAGR) UNCHANGED guide ~7.9% (top end of 5-7% EPS algo) vs. cons ~6.0% (2026-2029) MEDIUM
EXC Guide 4-Year Transmission/Total Capital Plan BETTER guide ~$41.7B vs. cons/prior plan ~$40.0B (2026-2029) MEDIUM
EXC Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -0.8% LOW
EXC Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.8% (FADE) EPS is almost fully pre-guided (CFO flagged ~15% of $2.86 midpoint = ~$0.43-0.44), so the headline print is unlikely to surprise; the stock's reaction will instead hinge on regulatory/credit commentary. Estimates have already drifted down 6-8% over 30/90 days, and out-year models still need to absorb the PECO rate-case delay, a possible unfavorable Pepco MD order, and any further Moody's/S&P action on PECO/BGE. Even a muted or slightly positive day-1 reaction is likely to fade over the week as sell-side analysts trim 2027-2028 EPS/rate-base assumptions for the credit and PA/MD regulatory friction, similar to the post-Q1 pattern where a beat still produced a ~2.5% decline. MEDIUM