Exelon (EXC) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Report Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026 (before market open) | Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call Last Close (7/29/26): ~$46.82 | Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS: $0.91 | FY26 Guidance: $2.81–$2.91/share

Exelon heads into tomorrow's print in a very different posture than it started the year. The company beat Q1 estimates and reaffirmed full-year guidance, but the quarter was overshadowed by a surprise decision to pull its Pennsylvania rate case, a wave of sell-side downgrades, and credit-rating pressure at two of its six utilities. This is arguably the most consequential print of the year for gauging whether management's "different plan for a different moment" is working.

1. What Wall Street Expects

Consensus has been drifting lower into the print. Estimates cluster around $0.43–$0.45 per share, though they range as wide as $0.42–$0.57 depending on the source:

• The consensus view is based on estimates from 18 analysts, with EPS projections ranging from $0.42 to $0.57 and revenue expectations spanning $3.77 billion to $5.81 billion, with one tracker pegging the number at $0.45.
• The EPS consensus has drifted down 6.2% over the past 30 days from $0.48, and down 8.2% over the past 90 days from $0.49 — a steady downward revision trend investors should note.
• A separate Zacks-based estimate sees Exelon (EXC) will report quarterly earnings of $0.43 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year increase of 10.3%, with revenues anticipated to amount to $5.72 billion, exhibiting an increase of 5.3% compared to the year-ago quarter.
• Importantly, management itself pre-guided this outcome: on the Q1 call, CFO Jeanne Jones said we expect second quarter earnings to be approximately 15% of the midpoint of our projected full year earnings guidance range, which contemplates normal weather and storm activity and anticipated revenue shaping and timing for the quarter, adding that in combination with Q1 results, this would result in recognizing 47% of projected full year earnings in the first half of the year, in line with seasonal shaping in prior years. 15% of the $2.86 midpoint works out to roughly $0.43 — right in line with the lower end of Street estimates.
• Structurally, Exelon's second-quarter earnings are expected to have witnessed the benefits of lower exposure to volumetric risk, with nearly 76% of its distribution revenues being decoupled, which should mute any weather noise relative to peers.

Bottom line: the bar is low and mostly de-risked by management's own guardrails. A beat relative to the ~$0.43-0.45 consensus is likely, but the more important question is whether shaping/timing keeps the company on track for the $2.81-$2.91 full-year range.

2. Q1 2026 Recap — The Setup

Exelon's Q1 print set the tone for a turbulent quarter:

• GAAP net income of $0.90 per share and Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings of $0.91 per share for the first quarter of 2026, beating the ~$0.89 consensus, though down slightly from $0.92 a year earlier.
• Management reported adjusted operating earnings of $0.91 per share, exceeding expectations with outperformance driven primarily by net favorable weather and timing-related items and was affirming our 2026 operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share.
• Operationally, all utilities sustained top-quartile in reliability performance, with ComEd in top decile — the reliability story remains a genuine strength.
• Despite the beat, EXC shares fell after the print (down ~2.5%) as investors focused on regulatory headlines rather than the numbers.

3. The Elephant in the Room: Pennsylvania

The single biggest overhang since Q1 has been PECO's abrupt reversal in Pennsylvania:

• At PECO, we made the decision to withdraw the recently filed electric and gas rate cases. This was a deliberate timing-based decision grounded in customer affordability considerations and informed by stakeholder feedback, per CEO Calvin Butler.
• Regulatory confirmation: On April 16, 2026, PECO filed a petition with the PAPUC to withdraw its previously filed electric and gas distribution rate proceedings submitted on March 30, 2026. The PAPUC approved the petition to withdraw the rate cases on April 30, 2026.
• The move triggered an immediate and coordinated reaction from sell-side analysts: Three major Wall Street firms—Barclays, BMO Capital, and Mizuho—downgraded Exelon (EXC) on April 17, citing deteriorating regulatory conditions after PECO Energy withdrew its Pennsylvania rate case, with price targets cut to $48–$49 from $50–$52. Jefferies also cut its rating to Hold.
• Watch for: any update on the timing of a re-filed PECO rate case, and further color on Governor Shapiro's "justifiable returns" framework, which management has said it is comfortable defending through Pennsylvania's normal evidentiary process.

4. Maryland: Relief Legislation, but a New Rate Case Verdict Looms

Maryland developments have moved fast since the Q1 call:

• The Utility RELIEF Act, which was pending Governor Moore's signature during the Q1 call, has since become law: Gov. Wes Moore (D) signed the Utility RELIEF Act into law Tuesday, ushering in a series of changes to the state's energy markets that officials hope will lower customers' electric bills in the months and years to come. Management has cautioned that this addresses near-term affordability but not the underlying supply/demand imbalance driving elevated capacity costs.
• More market-moving: Pepco's Maryland base rate case decision is imminent. The Maryland PSC has indicated a decision on Pepco's application is expected in summer 2026. Until a decision is reached, the current rates for Pepco's customers are frozen, and will not change — meaning an order could land within days or weeks of this earnings call, making it a live catalyst investors should ask about directly.

5. Credit Ratings — A Widening Crack

The regulatory friction has already shown up in credit metrics:

• On April 24, 2026, Moody's placed PECO's ratings under review for downgrade. On April 30, 2026, S&P downgraded BGE's senior unsecured credit rating from A to A-.
• The 10-Q confirms no further rating actions through Q1-end beyond that: the credit ratings for the Registrants did not change for the three months ended March 31, 2026 aside from the BGE cut. A key question for Q2: has Moody's concluded its PECO review, and in which direction?
• Management's response has been to lean on scale: on the Q1 call, Jones noted PECO was already on negative outlook. They're on review for a downgrade, while reiterating the company's target of maintaining financial flexibility above our downgrade thresholds, targeting credit metrics of 14% over the planning period.

6. The Offsetting Growth Story: Transmission & Data Centers

Even as distribution capex gets trimmed for affordability reasons, Exelon is leaning harder into transmission, where regulatory visibility is clearer:

• The revised plan calls for a total of $41.7 billion over the next 4 years for the benefit of our customers, with annualized rate base growth of 7.9% over the next 4 years.
• Transmission rate base [is expected to grow] at 16% through 2029, with $12–17 billion of additional upside optionality still excluded from the base plan.
• The company is bidding competitively for new transmission: in February, we submitted competitive bids for 2 Illinois transmission opportunities within the MISO Tranche 2.1 window, representing approximately $1.9 billion of total transmission capital spend pursued jointly with Invenergy, with two more PJM bids flagged as pending as of the Q1 call — worth asking about outcomes on tomorrow's call.
• Data-center demand remains a tailwind, with the pipeline increasingly de-risked: our data center pipeline is increasingly backed by FERC-approved transmission security agreements, which have now secured approximately $1 billion of collateral.
• Macro backdrop: PJM's most recent capacity auction still cleared near record levels — the price came in at the FERC-approved cap, $325/MW-day (UCAP) for the entire PJM footprint, a 2.5% decrease from the 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction cap of $333.44/MW-day — reinforcing Exelon's advocacy for new generation and its "supply shortage" affordability narrative.

7. Cost Discipline

Management has paired the capital reallocation with incremental cost cuts: we are pulling back on certain projects, reprioritizing capital across our portfolio and delivering $350 million of incremental O&M savings in 2027, tied to work we will no longer pursue, and separately targeting no more than 2% adjusted O&M growth through 2029. A voluntary separation program was flagged for later this year — watch for updates on uptake and associated severance charges.

8. Balance Sheet Progress

As of Q1, financing execution was ahead of plan: through March 31, completed approximately 43% of planned debt financings, including all of its Holding Company issuances, and priced approximately 37% of its $3.4 billion of equity needs through 2029. The company also declared its regular dividend: on April 28, 2026, Exelon's Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share on Exelon's common stock.

9. Stock & Sentiment Check

EXC shares have been rangebound in the mid-$40s since the April regulatory shock, having fallen from February/March highs near $50: Exelon stock is down roughly 5% year to date heading into this downgrade wave, and shares are trading near $46 as of this writing (as of mid-April; shares have since recovered modestly to ~$47). Current sentiment remains lukewarm: Exelon (EXC) has a Hold consensus rating as of Jul 24, 2026... 15 analysts have given Exelon (EXC) a consensus rating of Hold while the Exelon (EXC) price prediction in 2026 is $50, implying modest upside from current levels but reflecting a market still digesting the regulatory reset.

What to Watch on Tomorrow's Call

1. Guidance confirmation — Does management reaffirm the $2.81–$2.91 range and the "top end of 5–7%" long-term growth algorithm, or hint at pressure?
2. PECO path forward — Any timeline for a refiled Pennsylvania rate case, and updated tone from Harrisburg/Governor Shapiro's office.
3. Pepco Maryland rate order — A decision could land around this earnings date; any preliminary read-through matters for PHI earnings and Maryland ROE assumptions.
4. Credit rating trajectory — Resolution (or extension) of Moody's PECO review; any signs of further downgrades at other opcos.
5. Transmission wins — Outcomes on the MISO Tranche 2.1 bids and the additional PJM transmission bids flagged for "later this month" on the Q1 call.
6. Cost program execution — Progress on the $350 million O&M savings target and voluntary separation program uptake.
7. Data center/large-load pipeline — Incremental transmission security agreements and collateral, and any update on interconnection queue economics given elevated PJM capacity prices.

Bottom Line

Exelon is a low-beta regulated utility in the middle of an unusually active regulatory reset across two of its largest jurisdictions (Pennsylvania and Maryland), compounded by credit-rating pressure at PECO and BGE. The Q2 numbers themselves are likely to be a non-event — management has essentially pre-guided the quarter to ~15% of full-year midpoint EPS — but the regulatory and credit commentary on the call will matter far more than the EPS beat/miss. Investors should watch closely for tone on Pennsylvania re-filing plans, the pending Pepco Maryland order, and any incremental credit-rating news, since these are the swing factors behind the stock's recent multiple compression and the cluster of sell-side downgrades since April.