Company | Exelon Corporation |
Ticker | EXC (NASDAQ) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 30, 2026 — 10:00 AM ET |
Prepared | July 29, 2026 |
Sector / Sub-sector | Utilities — Regulated Electric & Gas T&D |
Primary Valuation Metric | P/E (NTM) — currently 16.0x |
Key Takeaway: The setup is broadly neutral-to-slightly-cautious — consensus has drifted lower since Q1 earnings, the bar is manageable, but the single biggest swing factor is whether management can credibly reaffirm full-year guidance and provide a constructive update on PECO's regulatory path in Pennsylvania.
Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for Exelon is modest: consensus adjusted operating EPS sits at approximately $0.43, roughly 15% of the full-year guidance midpoint of $2.86 — exactly in line with management's own Q1 call framing that Q2 would represent "approximately 15% of the midpoint." Estimate revisions have moved lower since the May 6 print (from ~$0.46 to ~$0.43), reflecting the PECO rate case withdrawal and a more cautious read on Pennsylvania regulatory timing, but the absolute bar is not demanding for a seasonally light quarter. Management's posture on the Q1 call was notably more defensive than prior quarters — CEO Calvin Butler's "business as usual is not an option" framing and the explicit capital plan rebalancing signal a company in adaptation mode rather than execution mode, and the tone heading into Q2 is unlikely to be materially more bullish. Estimate revisions have tracked guidance directionally but have not fully priced in the PECO earnings drag, leaving a modest cushion if weather or timing items are favorable. The stock has recovered from its post-Q1 dip and trades at ~16x NTM P/E, roughly in line with the regulated utility peer group, suggesting the market has largely digested the PECO news but is not pricing in upside. The key wildcard is any update on PECO's re-filing timeline and Pennsylvania regulatory strategy — a credible path to a new rate case in 2026 or early 2027 would be a meaningful positive catalyst, while further delay or a deteriorating tone on Pennsylvania affordability politics could pressure the stock despite an in-line print.
Key Takeaway: Consensus is a low bar for Q2 — the quarter is seasonally the weakest of the year and management pre-framed it at ~15% of full-year midpoint. Adjusted Operating EPS is the primary swing factor; rate base growth is the structural story that will drive the longer-term re-rating narrative.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | FY 2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Adj. Operating EPS ($) | $0.91 | $0.39 | $0.43 | +10.8% | $2.81–$2.91 | ~15% of midpoint (in-line with mgmt framing) |
Rate Base ($B) | $65.6B | $61.8B | $66.9B | +8.2% | ~$68.6B (FY 2026) | Tracking ~8% annualized growth target |
Capital Expenditures ($B) | $2.36B | $2.01B | $2.54B | +26.4% | ~$9.9B (FY 2026) | Tracking toward ~$10B full-year plan |
Operating & Maintenance ($B) | $1.47B | $1.32B | $1.35B | +2.3% | ~$5.32B (FY 2026); ≤2% growth cap through 2029 | Consensus below FY run-rate; O&M discipline key watch |
Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 29, 2026. Q2 2025 actuals and Q1 2026 actuals from Visible Alpha reported figures. FY 2026 guidance from Q1 2026 earnings call (May 6, 2026).
Quarter | Reported EPS ($) | Consensus Est. ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $0.47 | $0.39 | +20.4% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $0.71 | $0.67 | +5.9% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $0.64 | $0.58 | +10.7% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $0.92 | $0.88 | +5.0% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $0.39 | $0.37 | +5.4% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | $0.86 | $0.78 | +10.3% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $0.59 | $0.53 | +11.3% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | $0.91 | $0.88 | +3.1% | Beat |
Pattern: EXC has beaten adjusted operating EPS consensus in each of the last 8 consecutive quarters, with an average surprise of approximately +9%. Beat magnitude has narrowed in recent quarters (Q1 2026: +3.1%), consistent with a tighter bar post-PECO withdrawal and more conservative estimate-setting by the sell side. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Quarter | Reported Rate Base ($B) | Consensus Est. ($B) | Surprise % | Result |
Q2 2024 | $56.9B | $56.1B | +1.4% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $58.2B | $57.1B | +1.9% | Beat |
Q4 2024 | $59.5B | $58.0B | +2.6% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $60.7B | $61.4B | -1.2% | Miss |
Q2 2025 | $61.8B | $62.7B | -1.4% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | $63.0B | $64.0B | -1.5% | Miss |
Q4 2025 | $64.2B | $65.2B | -1.5% | Miss |
Q1 2026 | $65.6B | $65.7B | -0.2% | In-Line |
Pattern: Rate base has consistently come in slightly below consensus over the past five quarters, reflecting the capital plan rebalancing (PECO/BGE distribution deferrals). The gap has narrowed in Q1 2026 as consensus has been revised down to reflect the revised plan. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $2.81–$2.91 was reaffirmed on the Q1 call and has not been formally revised since. The more significant shift is in tone and capital plan composition — the PECO rate case withdrawal and the revised O&M target (from ≤2.5% to ≤2% annual growth) represent meaningful strategic pivots that are not yet fully reflected in formal guidance language.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call — May 6, 2026) | Revised Guidance (Post-Earnings Event) | Current Consensus | Note |
FY 2026 Adj. Operating EPS | $2.81–$2.91 per share; goal to be at midpoint or better | Unchanged | $2.85 (midpoint) | Reaffirmed on Q1 call; no post-earnings revision. Consensus sits at midpoint, consistent with management’s stated goal. |
Long-Term EPS Growth (2025–2029) | Near top end of 5–7% range | Unchanged | Consistent with guidance | Reaffirmed on Q1 call. No formal revision since Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 12, 2026). |
4-Year Capital Plan (2026–2029) | $41.7B total; ~$10B in 2026; transmission rate base CAGR ~16% | Unchanged (revised plan announced on Q1 call) | FY 2026 CapEx consensus ~$9.9B | Plan rebalanced on Q1 call: $1.1B PECO/BGE distribution deferrals offset by $1.5B incremental transmission. Net plan increased from $41.3B to $41.7B. |
Rate Base Growth (Annualized) | ~7.9% through 2029; transmission rate base ~16% CAGR | Unchanged | FY 2026 rate base consensus ~$68.6B | Maintained despite capital rebalancing. Upside transmission opportunity of $12B–$17B over next decade not in base plan. |
O&M Growth Cap (through 2029) | ≤2% annual growth (tightened from ≤2.5% at Q4 2025 call) | Unchanged | FY 2026 O&M consensus ~$5.32B | ↓ Tightened at Q1 call from ≤2.5% to ≤2%; new $350M incremental savings target for 2027 announced via workforce reductions and contractor rationalization. |
PECO Rate Case | Withdrawn (electric and gas); no re-filing timeline provided | No update since Q1 call | N/A | Key watch item for Q2 call. PECO on negative outlook/review for downgrade at Moody’s and S&P. Leadership transition underway at PECO. |
Q2 2026 EPS Framing | ~15% of full-year midpoint (~$0.43); 47% of full-year in H1 combined with Q1 | N/A | $0.43 consensus | Management pre-framed Q2 explicitly on Q1 call. Consensus is exactly in line with this framing. Normal weather assumed. |
Key Takeaway: Q2 2026 EPS estimates have drifted ~6% lower since the Q1 print baseline, driven by the PECO withdrawal and more conservative sell-side modeling of Pennsylvania earnings. Full-year 2026 estimates are essentially flat, suggesting the market views the PECO headwind as a timing issue rather than a structural impairment to the full-year number. The gap between current consensus and guidance midpoint is negligible, leaving little cushion if execution disappoints.
KPI & Period | Estimate as of May 13, 2026 (Post-Q1 Baseline) | Current Consensus (July 29, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Adj. Operating EPS — Q2 2026 | $0.46 | $0.43 | -6.1% | ~$0.43 (15% of $2.86 midpoint) | Unchanged | N/A | In-line with mgmt framing |
Adj. Operating EPS — FY 2026 | $2.86 | $2.85 | -0.3% | $2.81–$2.91 | $2.81–$2.91 (unchanged) | No change | -0.3% vs. midpoint (essentially in-line) |
Rate Base — Q2 2026 | $66.9B | $66.9B | 0.0% | ~8% annualized growth | Unchanged | No change | Tracking guidance |
Rate Base — FY 2026 | $68.5B | $68.6B | +0.1% | ~8% annualized growth | Unchanged | No change | Tracking guidance |
CapEx — Q2 2026 | $2.48B | $2.54B | +2.5% | ~$10B FY 2026 | Unchanged | No change | Tracking toward full-year plan |
CapEx — FY 2026 | $9.83B | $9.90B | +0.7% | ~$10B | Unchanged | No change | In-line with plan |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of May 13, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after the May 6, 2026 Q1 earnings release). Current consensus as of July 29, 2026. Guidance from Q1 2026 earnings call (May 6, 2026).
Commentary: The Q2 EPS estimate revision of −6.1% since the post-Q1 baseline is the most notable move — driven by the PECO rate case withdrawal and more conservative sell-side modeling of Pennsylvania earnings contribution in the quarter. However, the full-year estimate is essentially unchanged (−0.3%), implying the sell side views the Q2 PECO headwind as a timing/phasing issue rather than a structural impairment. Rate base and CapEx estimates are stable and tracking guidance, which is a positive signal for the long-term growth story. The key risk is that any further deterioration in Pennsylvania regulatory clarity could force a more meaningful downward revision to the full-year number.
Key Takeaway: EXC's +~2% gain since the May 6 Q1 earnings date has been driven primarily by modest multiple expansion (+~1% on EV/EBITDA) rather than estimate revisions (which have been flat-to-slightly-negative), suggesting the stock is being carried by sector sentiment and the data center demand narrative rather than fundamental earnings momentum. The stock is not pricing in a beat.
Since the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 6, 2026), EXC has traded in a narrow range, recovering from an initial post-earnings dip (driven by the PECO rate case withdrawal) to trade approximately flat-to-slightly-positive versus the XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF) and the S&P 500. The 12-month return of +8.4% has been split roughly evenly between earnings growth and multiple expansion (EV/EBITDA expanded from ~10.2x to ~10.3x over 12 months). Over the 6-month window, multiple expansion (+3.4% on EV/EBITDA) has been the larger driver versus the 6-month price gain of +4.95%, consistent with the sector re-rating driven by the AI/data center demand narrative. The NTM P/E of 16.0x is in line with the regulated utility peer group average, suggesting the stock is fairly valued relative to peers and is not pricing in either a significant beat or a miss.
Sector ETF Used: XLU (Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF) — appropriate for EXC as a large-cap regulated electric and gas T&D utility. EXC is a top-5 holding in XLU.
Key Events Since Last Earnings (May 6, 2026):
Valuation Context:
Metric | Current (NTM) | 1M Ago | 3M Ago | 12M Ago | |
EV/EBITDA | 10.30x | 10.39x | 10.21x | 10.20x | |
P/E (NTM) | 16.01x | 16.11x | 15.99x | 15.92x | |
P/Book | 1.53x | 1.55x | 1.57x | 1.51x | |
EXC Price Return | N/A | -0.21% | +0.02% | +8.39% |
Source: Stock performance decomposition data as of July 29, 2026.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the PECO rate case withdrawal and associated capital plan rebalancing — already announced on May 6 but with no subsequent update, making the Q2 call the first opportunity for management to provide a credible re-filing timeline and Pennsylvania regulatory strategy.
Key Takeaway: Peer Q2 2026 earnings commentary is broadly positive for EXC across the key themes of data center demand, load growth, and guidance reaffirmation. The primary cautionary read-through is the sector-wide emphasis on customer affordability as a binding constraint on rate case strategy — directly relevant to EXC’s PECO situation. All commentary below is from Q2 2026 earnings calls (July 22–29, 2026) and addresses the current reporting period or forward outlook provided after each peer’s Q2 earnings event.
Scope Note: Only commentary from peer Q2 2026 earnings events (July 22–29, 2026) is included below. No prior-quarter commentary is used as a read-through. Each item is labeled by sentiment for EXC.
Peer | Commentary (Q2 2026 Earnings Call) | Sentiment for EXC | Applicability to EXC |
FirstEnergy (FE) | "Total forecasted data center demand has increased 30% since the first quarter to approximately 25GW. During the second quarter alone, we contracted an additional 2.1GW, bringing our total contracted demand to 6.4GW." FE’s transmission system sits between the Northern Virginia data center hub and its Maryland and Pennsylvania service territories, with a data center hub in New Albany, Ohio touching its Ohio and Pennsylvania service territory. FE noted "a sense of urgency on both the data centers, developers and the hyperscalers as well as the utilities to get contracted as quickly as possible." | POSITIVE | Highly relevant. FE’s 30% increase in forecasted data center demand and 2.1GW of new Q2 contracts directly validates EXC’s large load pipeline narrative. FE’s geographic overlap with EXC in Maryland and Pennsylvania confirms that the demand surge is reaching EXC’s service territories. The urgency to contract load into the PJM planning process is a direct read-through for EXC’s transmission investment justification. |
DTE Energy (DTE) | "The 1.4GW Oracle Data Center remains on track, fully approved and under construction. We executed an agreement with Google to serve a one gigawatt data center, which provides upside to our current long term plan." DTE has 2.4GW of executed agreements and a pipeline of 5–6GW of additional opportunities, including ~2GW in advanced discussions. CEO Joi Harris stated: "Data center load growth done right, puts downward pressure on rates." | POSITIVE | Relevant. DTE’s execution of large data center contracts (Oracle 1.4GW, Google 1GW) and the framing that data center growth "puts downward pressure on rates" is directly applicable to EXC’s regulatory strategy for managing affordability concerns while growing the rate base. The contractual protections (collateral requirements at downgrade triggers) are a model EXC can reference in its own large load tariff discussions. |
WEC Energy (WEC) | "Normal retail electric sales grew 4.2% this quarter, driven by growth from Very Large Customers (VLCs)." Microsoft’s site in Pleasant Prairie is fully operational; WEC is preparing to serve a forecasted demand increase of 2.6GW in the I-94 corridor through 2030. Vantage/Oracle site has potential to reach 3.5GW over time. "By the end of 2030, we expect approximately 15% of our asset base to be dedicated to these very large customers." | POSITIVE | Relevant. WEC’s 4.2% weather-normalized electric sales growth driven by VLCs, and the scale of its data center pipeline (2.6GW from Microsoft, 3.5GW potential from Vantage/Oracle), confirms the national trend of large load driving utility growth. The VLC tariff framework (full cost-to-serve, collateral requirements) is a regulatory model directly applicable to EXC’s large load interconnection strategy. |
Entergy (ETR) | "The technology sector is the largest demand growth contributor in our five year plan." ETR has "7 to 12GW of hyperscale data center potential" in its pipeline and "3 to 5GW of interest from traditional industrial segments." "The front end of our funnel continues to be very, very active." Industrial sales grew 10% in Q2 2026 on a weather-adjusted basis. | POSITIVE | Relevant. ETR’s 10% industrial sales growth and 7–12GW hyperscale pipeline confirms the national scale of data center demand. While ETR operates in the Gulf South (different geography), the macro demand signal is directly applicable to EXC’s PJM-region large load pipeline and transmission investment thesis. |
NextEra Energy (NEE) | "Power demand continues to accelerate." FPL updated large load expectations from 6GW to 8GW by 2032. NEE has "roughly 21GW of large load interest at FPL" with "advanced discussions on 12GW." CEO John Ketchum: "Supply is not matching demand today, which is resulting in higher pricing across the board." NEE expects "every gigawatt of large load under FPL’s approved tariff to be equivalent to roughly $2 billion of CapEx." | POSITIVE | Highly relevant. NEE’s $2B/GW CapEx benchmark for large load is directly applicable to EXC’s capital planning. The supply/demand imbalance commentary validates EXC’s advocacy for utility-owned generation and transmission investment. NEE’s FERC Section 206 show cause order commentary ("will create yet another market shift") is relevant for EXC’s PJM transmission strategy. |
PG&E (PCG) | "We’re continuing to see significant load growth opportunities associated with data centers looking to locate in our service area." PCG’s data center pipeline now stands at over 12GW (up from 10GW pre-application interest last quarter). PCG expects "about 1.8GW to be online by 2030." PCG noted FERC’s order to show cause is "a positive step" and is engaging with state regulators on rate design for large loads. | POSITIVE | Relevant. PCG’s 12GW pipeline and the 10% financial commitment prerequisite for pipeline inclusion (quality filter) is a model for EXC’s own large load interconnection process. PCG’s engagement with FERC and state regulators on large load rate design is directly applicable to EXC’s regulatory strategy. |
CMS Energy (CMS) | "We have made meaningful progress [on data centers] and have taken an additional step reaching an agreement under our large load tariff." CMS noted "our average residential electric customer could see approximately $7.50 per month of bill benefit with every gigawatt of new large load." CMS also contracted "roughly 135MW of manufacturing and industrial load" in Q2, reflecting broader economic growth. | POSITIVE | Relevant. CMS’s quantification of customer bill benefits from large load ($7.50/month per GW) is a powerful regulatory argument that EXC can deploy in its own rate case and large load tariff discussions, particularly in the context of PECO’s affordability challenges. |
Sources: FE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28–29, 2026); DTE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026); WEC Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); ETR Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); NEE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 24, 2026); PCG Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 22–23, 2026); CMS Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026).
Peer | Commentary (Q2 2026 Earnings Call) | Sentiment for EXC | Applicability to EXC |
FirstEnergy (FE) | FE described New Jersey’s regulatory environment as "much more collaborative than prior rhetoric might have led people to believe" and does not "anticipate trouble" in its upcoming NJ base rate case filing. In Pennsylvania, FE noted 66% of CapEx is under the LTIP with DISC recovery and may seek to raise the DISC cap from 5% to 7.5% of revenues. FE CEO Brian Tierney: "We don’t anticipate that will be our experience going forward" regarding negative recovery. | POSITIVE | Directly relevant. FE’s positive tone on New Jersey and Pennsylvania regulatory environments is a constructive read-through for EXC’s ComEd (Illinois), Pepco (Maryland/DC), and PECO (Pennsylvania) operations. The Pennsylvania DISC mechanism (distribution investment recovery) is directly applicable to PECO’s capital recovery strategy post-rate case withdrawal. |
DTE Energy (DTE) | DTE noted that data center agreements "could support a potential rate case stay out until at least 2028" and that the "stay out mechanism was viewed very positively" by regulators pre-filing. CEO Joi Harris: "Given where we are with divided government and an election underway, it’s not likely that there will be any legislative changes in this calendar year." DTE’s residential bills are "17% below the national average." | MIXED | Mixed. The "rate case stay out" strategy enabled by data center growth is a potential model for EXC’s PECO situation. However, DTE’s comment that legislative changes are unlikely in a divided government/election year is a cautionary read-through for EXC’s Pennsylvania resource adequacy legislation hopes. |
WEC Energy (WEC) | WEC’s VLC tariff (approved by Wisconsin PSC in May) ensures VLCs "paid their full share of the cost" and provides "a strong framework for data center growth." WEC is actively engaging political candidates on the "economic benefits, from jobs to property taxes to even cost allocations for customers" of data centers. WEC estimates "$100 million of savings for our customers over the next two years from the value of the data centers." | POSITIVE | Relevant. WEC’s successful VLC tariff approval and proactive political engagement strategy is a direct model for EXC’s approach to managing affordability concerns while growing large load. The $100M customer savings quantification is a powerful regulatory argument EXC can replicate. |
Entergy (ETR) | ETR’s "Fair Share Plus pledge" ensures data centers "pay the full cost to serve them and their fair share of fixed costs," expecting "$7 billion in customer bill benefits." Louisiana Governor signed an executive order requiring new data centers to provide customer benefits. ETR acknowledged "pockets where there are concerns" and "pushback and NIMBYism" against data centers, including a "moratorium for data centers" in New Orleans. | MIXED | Mixed. The Fair Share Plus framework and state executive order are positive models for EXC’s regulatory strategy. However, the acknowledgment of data center moratoriums and NIMBYism is a cautionary read-through for EXC’s Pennsylvania and Maryland large load development, where affordability politics are already elevated. |
PG&E (PCG) | PCG is "intensely focused on customer affordability," targeting "0 to 3% annual customer bill growth." PCG’s 2027 GRC was described as "the lowest general rate case we filed in over a decade" and was "well received." PCG filed for interim rate recovery effective January 2027 to "smooth customer rates." PCG noted that "achieving investment grade remains a critical milestone" for lower financing costs. | POSITIVE | Relevant. PCG’s strategy of filing a modest rate case ("lowest in over a decade") and seeking interim rate recovery to smooth customer rates is a potential template for PECO’s eventual re-filing strategy. The emphasis on affordability as a prerequisite for constructive regulatory outcomes is directly applicable to EXC’s Pennsylvania situation. |
CMS Energy (CMS) | CMS filed an electric rate case requesting a $456M revenue increase, a 10.25% ROE, and a 51.75% equity ratio, along with a two-year investment recovery mechanism (IRM). CMS revised its gas rate case revenue request to $232M, "well aligned with staff’s position." CMS described its regulatory environment as "top tier" and emphasized "support for financially healthy utilities in both legislation and regulation." | POSITIVE | Relevant. CMS’s constructive regulatory environment and the use of an IRM for grid hardening investments is a model for EXC’s own capital recovery mechanisms. The alignment of the gas rate case with staff’s position suggests a collaborative regulatory approach that EXC could emulate in its upcoming PECO re-filing. |
Sources: FE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28–29, 2026); DTE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026); WEC Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); ETR Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); PCG Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 22–23, 2026); CMS Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026).
Peer | Commentary (Q2 2026 Earnings Call) | Sentiment for EXC | Applicability to EXC |
WEC Energy (WEC) | "Weather negatively impacted quarter over quarter earnings by approximately $0.05 compared to normal conditions." WEC estimated a $0.03 negative weather impact in Q2 2026 vs. a $0.02 positive impact in Q2 2025. Higher O&M ($0.03/share impact) and higher D&A ($0.05/share impact) were partial offsets to earnings. WEC noted labor market tightness for its pipe program: "It’s going a little bit slower than we would like in 2026." | NEGATIVE | Cautionary. WEC’s negative weather impact in Q2 2026 (milder than normal in the Midwest) suggests EXC’s service territories may have experienced similar conditions, potentially creating a headwind to Q2 EPS. The labor market tightness for capital projects is a read-through for EXC’s own capital execution risk. |
CMS Energy (CMS) | "An unfavorable weather comp from last year, and slightly lower cooling and heating degree days in Q2 versus normal resulted in unfavorable variance of $0.08 for year to date results." CMS noted "July temperatures have been helpful" and plans for normal weather for the remainder of the year. Non-weather sales are "trending positively year to date." Storm-related O&M was the primary headwind ($0.19/share unfavorable O&M variance). | NEGATIVE | Cautionary. CMS’s $0.08 YTD weather headwind and $0.19 storm-related O&M variance are cautionary signals for EXC’s Q2 results if similar weather patterns affected EXC’s service territories. However, CMS’s positive non-weather sales trend is a constructive offset. |
DTE Energy (DTE) | DTE reported a severe storm in early July impacting nearly 400,000 customers, with "more than 600 broken poles and substantial damage." CFO Dave Ruud noted "colder weather" partially offset lower DTE Electric earnings vs. Q2 2025. Despite weather challenges, DTE is "on track to reach the high end of our operating EPS guidance this year," supported by rate relief and non-utility performance. | MIXED | Mixed. DTE’s ability to reaffirm high-end guidance despite weather challenges and storm costs is a positive signal for EXC’s ability to manage similar headwinds. However, the July storm (impacting the Midwest broadly) is a cautionary signal for EXC’s Q3 storm cost exposure. |
Entergy (ETR) | ETR reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.03, "slightly lower than last year as weather was close to normal compared to warmer weather in 2025." Excluding weather, retail sales growth was positive, "driven by 10% industrial sales growth." ETR expects "other O&M to be approximately $0.05 to $0.10 higher than the same quarter last year" in Q3, driven by expenses recovered through riders. | MIXED | Mixed. ETR’s return to normal weather (vs. warmer Q2 2025) is a cautionary read-through for EXC’s Q2 YoY comparison. However, the strong underlying industrial sales growth (+10%) is a positive signal for EXC’s load trends. |
FirstEnergy (FE) | "Total customer load increased approximately 2% in the quarter on a weather adjusted basis." Industrial load increased "over 4% with growth across most sectors, especially in metals, oil and gas and chemicals, reflecting strengthening order activity and tailwinds from the AI and data center infrastructure build outs." FE noted financial performance was "partially offset by the timing of operating expenses, which were planned to be slightly higher." | POSITIVE | Positive. FE’s 2% weather-adjusted load growth and 4%+ industrial load growth in Q2 2026 is a constructive read-through for EXC’s load trends in its PJM-region service territories. The broad-based industrial growth (metals, oil & gas, chemicals) suggests underlying economic strength beyond just data centers. |
Sources: WEC Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); CMS Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026); DTE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026); ETR Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); FE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28–29, 2026).
Peer | Commentary (Q2 2026 Earnings Call) | Sentiment for EXC | Applicability to EXC |
FirstEnergy (FE) | FE reaffirmed its 2026 $6B capital investment plan and core earnings guidance of $2.62–$2.82/share. FE deployed $2.9B in H1 2026, a 19% increase vs. 2025 on a trailing 12-month basis. Transmission business has a "16% compound annual growth rate through 2030 in the current plan." FE plans to participate in the 2026 PJM Open Window process (opened last week), with projects to be awarded in Q1 2027. | POSITIVE | Highly relevant. FE’s 16% transmission CAGR through 2030 and participation in the PJM Open Window directly mirrors EXC’s own transmission growth strategy. FE’s guidance reaffirmation despite weather challenges is a positive read-through for EXC’s full-year guidance reaffirmation. |
DTE Energy (DTE) | DTE is "on track to reach the high end of our operating EPS guidance this year." DTE plans to invest approximately $11B over the next five years. DTE is "still targeting annual equity issuances of $500 to $600 million in 2026 through 2028." DTE priced ~$500M of equity through forward sale agreements in H1 2026, "effectively fulfilling our equity needs for the year." | POSITIVE | Relevant. DTE’s high-end guidance reaffirmation and proactive ATM equity execution (fulfilling full-year needs in H1) is a positive read-through for EXC’s own ATM program and financing strategy. The $500–$600M annual equity issuance target is comparable in scale to EXC’s equity needs. |
WEC Energy (WEC) | WEC reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $5.51–$5.61/share and projects 7–8% EPS CAGR through 2030, "accelerating to the upper half of the range starting in 2028." WEC locked in ~$760M of common equity in H1 2026 via ATM program and expects to issue ~$1.1B of common equity in 2026. WEC is "very, very comfortable relying on the ATM program." | POSITIVE | Relevant. WEC’s guidance reaffirmation and ATM-based equity execution is a direct read-through for EXC’s financing strategy. The 7–8% EPS CAGR target (accelerating from 2028) is comparable to EXC’s near-top-end-of-5–7% target, suggesting the sector is broadly on track for its long-term growth commitments. |
Entergy (ETR) | "For 2026, we’re firmly on track, and we remain confident that we will deliver on our guidance." ETR completed a $2.175B equity forward offering in early May and settled 8.7M shares for net proceeds of $672M on June 22. "Approximately 60% of our five year equity plan is contracted, satisfying needs into 2028." ETR has "over a thousand miles of transmission" currently under construction. | POSITIVE | Relevant. ETR’s confident guidance reaffirmation and proactive equity financing (60% of 5-year plan contracted) is a positive read-through for EXC’s own financing execution. The scale of ETR’s transmission build (1,000+ miles) validates the sector-wide transmission investment cycle that EXC is participating in. |
CMS Energy (CMS) | CMS reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $3.83–$3.90/share "with continued confidence toward the high end." CMS announced it would exit non-utility renewables development, focusing on its regulated business. CMS’s $24B utility investment plan drives 10.5% compounded rate base growth. CMS plans to issue $700M of equity in 2026 and has already completed ~$500M at "attractive prices." | POSITIVE | Relevant. CMS’s guidance reaffirmation and exit from non-utility renewables (focusing on regulated business) is a positive read-through for EXC’s pure-play regulated utility model. The 10.5% rate base CAGR from CMS’s $24B plan provides a sector benchmark for capital-driven growth. |
NextEra Energy (NEE) | NEE reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92–$4.02, "targeting the high end." NEE expects 8%+ adjusted EPS CAGR through 2032. FPL’s capital expenditures were ~$2.8B for Q2 alone; full-year capital investments expected at $12–$13B. NEE Transmission was selected for two large-scale 765 kV transmission projects in Illinois (NEE has 43% ownership of the ~$1.6B project). | POSITIVE | Relevant. NEE’s Illinois 765 kV transmission project selection is directly relevant to EXC’s ComEd transmission territory. The scale of NEE’s capital deployment ($2.8B/quarter at FPL alone) validates the sector-wide capital intensity of the current investment cycle. NEE’s 8%+ EPS CAGR target is a positive sector benchmark. |
Sources: FE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28–29, 2026); DTE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026); WEC Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); ETR Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 29, 2026); CMS Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 28, 2026); NEE Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 24, 2026).
Key Takeaway: No qualifying open-market purchases or sales (Form 4 codes P/S) or 10b5-1 plan initiations were identified for EXC insiders in the period since the Q1 2026 earnings date (May 6, 2026). The only Form 4 filings identified were compensation-related acquisitions of deferred phantom share equivalents by directors (non-qualifying transactions). The absence of open-market insider activity is neither a positive nor negative signal in isolation — it is consistent with typical pre-earnings quiet periods and the company’s standard compensation plan mechanics.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Date | Note |
Matthew C. Rogers | Director | Non-qualifying (Deferred Phantom Share Equivalents — Compensation Plan) | ~$36,250 | June 30, 2026 | Compensation-related acquisition; settled for cash upon board service termination. Not an open-market transaction. Not a 10b5-1 plan. |
William P. Bowers | Director | Non-qualifying (Deferred Phantom Share Equivalents — Compensation Plan) | ~$43,079 | June 30, 2026 | Compensation-related acquisition; settled for cash upon board service termination. Not an open-market transaction. Not a 10b5-1 plan. |
Additional Directors (2 filings) | Directors | Non-qualifying (Deferred Phantom Share Equivalents — Compensation Plan) | N/A | June 30, 2026 | Same compensation plan mechanics. Non-qualifying. |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings via SEC EDGAR (search period: May 6, 2026 – July 29, 2026). No open-market purchases (code P), open-market sales (code S), or 10b5-1 plan transactions were identified. All Form 4 filings in the period involved deferred phantom share equivalents under a non-qualified deferred compensation plan (code A — acquisition), which are compensation-related and not open-market transactions.
Disclaimer: This earnings preview is prepared for informational purposes only based on publicly available data as of July 29, 2026. All consensus estimates are sourced from Visible Alpha. All peer commentary is sourced from publicly available Q2 2026 earnings call transcripts and earnings releases. This document does not constitute investment advice.